The Big Bad Swedish Politics & News Thread

[Lurker]

Would such a traffic-light coalition work in Sweden? It was tried a few times on State level in Germany, and always  failed miserably (typically the FDP walked out on a minor issue after 2-3 years). In general, coalitions involving both the Greens and the FDP were a disaster here (the black-green-yellow "Jamaica" coalition on the Saar was in 2012 killed by the FDP, while CDU and Greens got along reasonably well with each other).

Bit hard to say whether it would work, as the Social Democrats hasn't been in a coalition with Folkpartiet for 70 years (in the unity goverment of WW2). However, considering how right-wing Folkpartiet has become, I have a very hard time seeing it happening. It would probably be unpopular with most of Folkpartiet's voters. Also, the Right-wing press (which includes 90% of Swedish newspapers) would probably attack the party very strongly if they joined a coalition lead by the Social Democrats.

[Tayya]

I don't know. A Social Democratic+Green+Liberal coalition would probably be enticing to the Södermalm urban liberal journalists.

We have the first poll of this election season for the European Parliament! Oddly enough for Swedish poll, the company (TNS-SIFO) has only produced even numbers, and included the Pirate Party (with 2 seats in the European Parliament) in the "Others" group, while showing the Sweden Democrats with zero separately... anyways:

Left - 7% (+1,3)
Social Democrats - 26% (+1,4)
Greens - 15% (+4,0)

Centre - 3% (-2,5)
Liberal - 4% (-9,6)
Moderate - 28% (+9,2)
Christian Democrats - 4% (-0,7)

Sweden Democrats - 7% (+3,7)

Others - 6% (-7)

Red-Greens - 48% (+6,7)
The Alliance - 39% (-3,6)

"Others" in 2010 consisted of the Pirate Party (7,1%), the June List (3,6%) and the Feminist Initiative (2,2%). If we apply the decrease equally, the Pirates get 3.3%, the June List 1,7% and the Feminist Initiative 1.0%.

Mandates:

Left - 1-2 (--/+1)*
Social Democrats - 6 (+1)
Greens - 3 (+1)

Centre - 0 (-1)
Liberal - 1 (-2)
Moderate - 6 (+2)
Christian Democrats - 1 (--)

Sweden Democrats - 1-2 (--/+1)*

Pirates - 0 (-2)

*Tied in the poll

[Leftbehind]

4) It would drive some of the left-wingers on here mad, with the S and Mp "selling out to neoliberalism" And that is always fun.

Not as fun as it would be for us watching them get destroyed at the elections (because funnily enough it is not just forum leftists opposed to neoliberalism).

According to German experience, the only ones getting destroyed are the liberals. The Greens remain stable and return to opposition, while the next government is a grand coalition. Whoever leads that grand coalition will gain, ultimately enough to form a coalition with its preferred partner (i.e. either red-green of black-yellow).

Have there been that many examples to base this off? There's never been one on the federal level to my knowledge - which leaves us at state level - where the coalition and its consequences receive less scrutiny. As it is, I'd expect ditching their Red-Greens alliances, shunning socialists but welcoming - and accommodating - neoliberals into government, only to then join a grand coalition (unlikely?) to be none other than a recipe for disaster for SAP. I predict V would get their best result since 1998, at the expense of SAP and MP, at the next election where the victorious Moderates would have no need or inclination for a grand coalition.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Not as fun as it would be for us watching them get destroyed at the elections (because funnily enough it is not just forum leftists opposed to neoliberalism).

We get a centrist government, left-wingers gets fuzzy, and there's great potential of S loosing big in the election due to disgrunted left-wingers... it's only getting better and better.

Would such a traffic-light coalition work in Sweden? It was tried a few times on State level in Germany, and always  failed miserably (typically the FDP walked out on a minor issue after 2-3 years). In general, coalitions involving both the Greens and the FDP were a disaster here (the black-green-yellow "Jamaica" coalition on the Saar was in 2012 killed by the FDP, while CDU and Greens got along reasonably well with each other).

FDP and FP are two very different creatures actually, but you are correct that there would be problem-areas between Greens and Liberals, especially on Nuclear Power and Education. Though none of the three left-wing parties agree on education either, so on that point it's rather moot anyway.

Right-wing press (which includes 90% of Swedish newspapers) would probably attack the party very strongly if they joined a coalition lead by the Social Democrats.

Yeah yeah, 90% of Swedish newspapers are owned by the right, and 90% of their employees vote for the left, we've heard it all before. Funny that neither left nor right ever does anything wrong, it's just the biased media twisting their actions.

Actually as Tayya says, it's really the media that is hyping the idea of a S+Mp+Fp coalition. And I think even the neoliberal editorial authors in the press prefer to have Fp on the inside in a centrist government than to have a pure left government that's dependant on the commies.

You're of course right that their voters might be pissed. (Just as C voters after their '94-'98 collaboration with the S government.)

 

[Leftbehind]

Not as fun as it would be for us watching them get destroyed at the elections (because funnily enough it is not just forum leftists opposed to neoliberalism).

We get a centrist government, left-wingers gets fuzzy, and there's great potential of S loosing big in the election due to disgrunted left-wingers... it's only getting better and better.

Great news indeed for you right-wingers, not so much the left - which is why it's a terrible idea.

Actually as Tayya says, it's really the media that is hyping the idea of a S+Mp+Fp coalition. And I think even the neoliberal editorial authors in the press prefer to have Fp on the inside in a centrist government than to have a pure left government that's dependant on the commies.

Well of course they would, but that doesn't mean they won't be roundly attacked and criticised throughout for not living up to the Right's (unrealistic) expectations re: moderation/influence.

[Lurker]

Yeah yeah, 90% of Swedish newspapers are owned by the right, and 90% of their employees vote for the left, we've heard it all before. Funny that neither left nor right ever does anything wrong, it's just the biased media twisting their actions.

The former idea seems to have more truth in it than the latter though.  Ftr, I do not in any way think that the Swedish left are flawless - my "90%" estimate (which referred to the papers' editorial lines) was not intended as partisan hackery, though it can obviously appear that way. It is simply my impression from the Swedish newspapers that I've read that the majority leans right: While the left have Aftonbladet, the centre-right have DN, SvD, Expressen, etc.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

The former idea seems to have more truth in it than the latter though.  Ftr, I do not in any way think that the Swedish left are flawless - my "90%" estimate (which referred to the papers' editorial lines) was not intended as partisan hackery, though it can obviously appear that way. It is simply my impression from the Swedish newspapers that I've read that the majority leans right: While the left have Aftonbladet, the centre-right have DN, SvD, Expressen, etc.

The editorial lines are a majority centre-right and there are several polls and reserch showing unproportinal support for the centre-left among journalists, but it's hardly close 90% on either side. Neither does it really matter that much, because unrelated to their political agenda, the number one agenda of both journalists and paper owners is to get people to read their crap, and they'll use any sort of scandal and fear-mongering to achive that.

[Franknburger]

4) It would drive some of the left-wingers on here mad, with the S and Mp "selling out to neoliberalism" And that is always fun.

Not as fun as it would be for us watching them get destroyed at the elections (because funnily enough it is not just forum leftists opposed to neoliberalism).

According to German experience, the only ones getting destroyed are the liberals. The Greens remain stable and return to opposition, while the next government is a grand coalition. Whoever leads that grand coalition will gain, ultimately enough to form a coalition with its preferred partner (i.e. either red-green of black-yellow).

Have there been that many examples to base this off? There's never been one on the federal level to my knowledge - which leaves us at state level - where the coalition and its consequences receive less scrutiny. As it is, I'd expect ditching their Red-Greens alliances, shunning socialists but welcoming - and accommodating - neoliberals into government, only to then join a grand coalition (unlikely?) to be none other than a recipe for disaster for SAP. I predict V would get their best result since 1998, at the expense of SAP and MP, at the next election where the victorious Moderates would have no need or inclination for a grand coalition.

There have two cases on state level: Bremen (traffic-light from 1991 to 1995) and Saar (Jamaica from 2009 to Jan 2012) Below, I give the election results before and after the failed Green-FDP cooperation attempt:

Bremen:
SPD:           38.8 / 33.4 / - 4.4
CDU:           30.7/ 32.6 / +1.9
Green:        11.4/ 13.1 / +1.7
FDP:            9.5/    3.1/  -6.4
Linke:          -- /    2.4/  +2.4
DVU/REP:    7.7/   2.5/  - 5.1
Others:       2.0( 12.8( +10.8

Others 1995 are primarily "Arbeit für Bremen", a centrist SPD split-up (with obvious appeal to right-wingers), who gained 10.7%.

Saarland:
CDU:        34.5/ 35.2/ +0.7
SPD:        24.5/ 30.6/ +6.1
Green:       5.9/   5.0/ -0.9
FDP:          9.2/   1.2/ -8.0
Linke:      21.3/ 16.1/ -5.2
Others:     4.6/  11.8/+7.3

The gains for "others" are mostly the Pirates (not on the ballot in 2009, 7.4% in 2012)

The only major city that had a traffic-light coalition was Darmstadt (2006-2009):
CDU:        30.1/ 24.8/ -5.3
SPD:        29.0/ 21.3/ -7.7
Green:     15.5/ 32.9/ +17.4
FDP:          6.8/   3.2/ --3.6
Linke:       4.1/   3.9/  -0.2
Others:    12.3/13.3/ +1.0

Pretty interesting - traffic-light lead into a green-black coalition with a green mayor (the first mayor since WW II that is not from the SPD).

City-level Jamaica coalitions that have already been voted on include Wiesbaden and Giessen (since 2006). Both saw strong Green gains, the FDP share more-less being halved,  and also substantial CDU losses.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Has there been any CDU+FDP+GRN coalitions anywhere?

For what it's worth, there's actually several coalitions on the regional level where FP and MP are both included and seem to get along: Skåne, Halland, Jönköping, Värmland, Västernorrland, and Södermanland.

The coalition in Södermanland is actually a S+Fp+Mp coalition, and the leader for FP there wrote an editorial last week saying that he thinks his party should be open to the same solution on the national level. So it seem the cooperation is going well there.   

[Franknburger]

Has there been any CDU+FDP+GRN coalitions anywhere?

For what it's worth, there's actually several coalitions on the regional level where FP and MP are both included and seem to get along: Skåne, Halland, Jönköping, Värmland, Västernorrland, and Södermanland.

The coalition in Södermanland is actually a S+Fp+Mp coalition, and the leader for FP there wrote an editorial last week saying that he thinks his party should be open to the same solution on the national level. So it seem the cooperation is going well there.   

CDU+GRN+FDP is known here as Jamaica coalition (for the colours of the Jamaican flag), and was included in the listing of my previous post (Saarland, Giessen, Wiesbaden).

I also don't understand fully the problem with FDP and Greens here. Both parties should get along well on a number of issues (privacy, civil rights etc.), while they need to compromise on others. Economically, the Greens tend to be to the right of the SPD (to the extent a right-left scale is appropriate here) with focus on fiscal responsibility, and considerable small business outreach (I would assume that by now more plumbers are voting Green than FDP - they know who is keeping energy-saving on the agenda). Environmental regulation or transport policy are of course more controversial, but that applies to Greens vs. SPD as well. And you always need to compromise in a coalition.
However, the FDP here has been trying to sharpen their profile, especially against the Greens, which are competing for the traditional FDP base (urban educated middle-class).If Swedish liberals are different (and that seems to be the case), good for you, as you gain policy options that move out of the classical blocks.

[The Lord Marbury]

http://sverigesradio.se/sida/artikel.aspx?programid=2054&artikel=5598392

Looks like the whole Nuon/Vattenfall mess is back again. But there's no real point in wondering how Reinfeldt will respond to this mess; because he simply won't. He'll just continue to claim he had nothing at all to do with the whole thing and didn't participate in any real discussions about it and that's it really. Even though records do show that he in fact was briefed of the deal and the involved risks, he still won't own up to the facts and have the guts to go up there and say that the government made a boo-boo. But that's no surprise, he has always tried to shift the blame to others and take no real responsibility for himself. It's what he does.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

http://sverigesradio.se/sida/artikel.aspx?programid=2054&artikel=5598392
It's what he does.

It's what politicians do.

"To err is human, to blame others is politics"

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

You know, the more I think about it, the more I'm starting to believe that an S+Mp+Fp coalition would be the best possible option after the next elections.

Since there have been no intresting political developments since Almedalen, and no new polls, I have amused myself by creating a potential S+Mp+Fp cabinet. Doesn't look too bad actually.

Prime Minister - Stefan Löfvén (S)   
      
Minister of Finance - Magdalena Andersson (S)   
Minister of Foreign Affairs    - Maria Wetterstrand (Mp)   
Minister of Justice - Thomas Bodström (S)   
Minister of Defense -  Allan Widman (Fp)   
      
Minister of Education - Carin Jämtin   (S)
Minister of Social Affairs - Erik Ullenhag (Fp)    
Minister of Rural Affairs - Terese Bengard (S)   
Minister of Environment     Åsa Romson (Mp)   
Minister of Enterprise - Tomas Eneroth (S)   
Minister of Immigration and Equality - Gustav Fridolin (Mp) *As well as deputy PM   
Minister of Labour - Ylva Johansson    (S)
Minister of Culture -   Leif Pagrotsky   (S)
      
Minister of EU affairs - Birgita Ohlsson (Fp)   
Minister of Foreign Aid - Evin Cetin (S)   
Minister of Child- & Elder-care - Gunvor G. Ericson (Mp)   
Minister of Social Security - Veronica Palm (S)   
Minister of Financial Markets - Jens Henriksson (S)   
Minister of Science -   Peter Honeth (Fp)   
Minister for regions and infrastructure - Sven-Erik Bucht (S)   
Minister of Energy - Ann-Kristine Johansson (S)   

[The Lord Marbury]

^ I have serious doubts that SAP would be willing part with two of the big four ministries like Foreign Affairs and Defense, excepting something like a grand coalition. After all, the Moderates haven't done it either. Otherwise it looks pretty good. Though I sure as hell hope that something like this will never come to fruition.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

^ I have serious doubts that SAP would be willing part with two of the big four ministries like Foreign Affairs and Defense, excepting something like a grand coalition. After all, the Moderates haven't done it either. Otherwise it looks pretty good. Though I sure as hell hope that something like this will never come to fruition.

If SAP had its way they wouldn't part with any ministry. (ever)
For a party that is supposedly about sharing, they sure are a greedy bunch. But it's not like its coalition partners would allow them to concentrate all the important offices to themselves. 

The Moderates were only able to take all of the great four in 2006 because Olofsson preferred to take the Enterprise ministry over the Foreign Affairs one and because Carl Bildt was seen as such a formidable candidate. In all previous coalition governments in Sweden at least one of the great offices has been hold by a different party than the one holding the Premiership.

If anything the experience from the current Alliance government is that its a really bad idea for the smaller parties to let themselves be marginalized by concentrating the  big offices to the largest one.

The Greens looks like they'll have a good election and will be in a strong position when negotiations rolls along, taking the Foreign Affairs post either for Wetterstrand or Fridolin will be on their mind, and as SAP seem unlikely to have a strong candidate, I see it as pretty likely.

As for Defense, my reasoning was that S would need to give Fp something for giving up Education. Giving them Education in a coalition also containing the Greens would of course be impossible. Since Defense is one of FP's profile areas while SAP doesn't have a strong candidate for the position (Their most merited Defense politician being a man with a mustache who'll never be allowed in a government) it seemed like a fair compromise.     

And it's also worth noting, that this is my idea of how a good, mostly competent coalition would look. As your party has a long tradition of putting the wrong persons on the wrong posts (*host*Laila Freivalds *host*Bosse Ringholm *host*) I'm sure an actual S+Mp+Fp coalition would look nothing like this.       

[Viewfromthenorth]

I find the talk of an S-Fp-Mp (more likely S-Mp-Fp) coalition intriguing. Has it been seriously discussed at any level in Sweden? What about other centrist coalitions?

[Franknburger]

21 Ministries- is Sweden trying to compete with the European Commission?

You can integrate Labour & Social Affairs, Environment & Energy, Education & Science, Enterprise & Financial Markets, Foreign Affairs & EU Affairs (or add EU affairs to the PM portfolio, and put Foreign Aid to Foreign Affairs).

Don't you have a Ministry of Interior ?

[The Lord Marbury]

21 Ministries- is Sweden trying to compete with the European Commission?

You can integrate Labour & Social Affairs, Environment & Energy, Education & Science, Enterprise & Financial Markets, Foreign Affairs & EU Affairs (or add EU affairs to the PM portfolio, and put Foreign Aid to Foreign Affairs).

Don't you have a Ministry of Interior ?

Not all those minister posts have their own Ministries. EU Affairs is part of the PM's office, Social Security and Children and Elderly Care are part of Social Affairs, Foreign Aid is in the Foreign Ministry, Financial Markets in the Finance Ministry, Energy and Regions and Infrastructure in the Enterprise Ministry, and Science used to be a portfolio in the Education Ministry.

[Viewfromthenorth]

21 Ministries- is Sweden trying to compete with the European Commission?

You can integrate Labour & Social Affairs, Environment & Energy, Education & Science, Enterprise & Financial Markets, Foreign Affairs & EU Affairs (or add EU affairs to the PM portfolio, and put Foreign Aid to Foreign Affairs).

Don't you have a Ministry of Interior ?

Not all those minister posts have their own Ministries. EU Affairs is part of the PM's office, Social Security and Children and Elderly Care are part of Social Affairs, Foreign Aid is in the Foreign Ministry, Financial Markets in the Finance Ministry, Energy and Regions and Infrastructure in the Enterprise Ministry, and Science used to be a portfolio in the Education Ministry.

How I wish Norway would move in the same direction. Currently we have 20 members of cabinet, and all but the PM and Karl-Erik Schjøtt-Pedersen (who is in cabinet for no particular reason) have their own ministries.

By the way, the "Ministry of the Interior" concept is not very common in the Nordic countries, unless combined with something else (i.e. Denmark has combined it with health).

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

21 Ministries- is Sweden trying to compete with the European Commission?

You can integrate Labour & Social Affairs, Environment & Energy, Education & Science, Enterprise & Financial Markets, Foreign Affairs & EU Affairs (or add EU affairs to the PM portfolio, and put Foreign Aid to Foreign Affairs).

Don't you have a Ministry of Interior ?

We actually have 25 ministers currently. I removed some.
But as Marbury correctly said, not all of them have their own ministries. We only have 13 ministries. (including the Prime Minister's Office.)

And why would we have a Minister of Interior? I have never understod what one of those are actually suppouse to do.

I find the talk of an S-Fp-Mp (more likely S-Mp-Fp) coalition intriguing. Has it been seriously discussed at any level in Sweden? What about other centrist coalitions?

Södermanland is currently governed by a S+Fp+Mp coalition, and the regional FP leader wrote an editorial a few weeks ago saying the national party should consider the idea. But it's only gonna happen if the left is bigger than the Alliance, but fail to get 175 seats.

The Centre Party has historically been willing to govern with the left sometimes (just as in Norway) but that is seen as very unlikely at the moment.
The Alliance + Greens are also a often discussed idea, and very common on the regional and local levels. 

EDIT: Welcome to the forum btw. It's always nice to have more Nordics here. (Especially centre-right ones.)

[Franknburger]

And why would we have a Minister of Interior? I have never understod what one of those are actually suppouse to do.

Because you want to separate executive from judiciary powers. The Ministry of Justice is responsible for the judiciary system, drafts new legislation, especially public and criminal law, and carries out regulatory impact assessment on legislation prepared by other ministries. The Ministry of Interior controls police, prosecutors, jails, border police, fire-fighters and so on, and oversees the public sector (post classification, compensations & benefits, training, etc.).

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

And why would we have a Minister of Interior? I have never understod what one of those are actually suppouse to do.

Because you want to separate executive from judiciary powers. The Ministry of Justice is responsible for the judiciary system, drafts new legislation, especially public and criminal law, and carries out regulatory impact assessment on legislation prepared by other ministries. The Ministry of Interior controls police, prosecutors, jails, border police, fire-fighters and so on, and oversees the public sector (post classification, compensations & benefits, training, etc.).

So that's what an Interior Ministry is suppose to do! I actually had no idea.

[Viewfromthenorth]

And why would we have a Minister of Interior? I have never understod what one of those are actually suppouse to do.

Because you want to separate executive from judiciary powers. The Ministry of Justice is responsible for the judiciary system, drafts new legislation, especially public and criminal law, and carries out regulatory impact assessment on legislation prepared by other ministries. The Ministry of Interior controls police, prosecutors, jails, border police, fire-fighters and so on, and oversees the public sector (post classification, compensations & benefits, training, etc.).

So that's what an Interior Ministry is suppose to do! I actually had no idea.

In Scandinavian countries it is very rarely a problem that the Ministry of Justice controls both the courts and the police, though.

[Franknburger]

And why would we have a Minister of Interior? I have never understod what one of those are actually suppouse to do.

Because you want to separate executive from judiciary powers. The Ministry of Justice is responsible for the judiciary system, drafts new legislation, especially public and criminal law, and carries out regulatory impact assessment on legislation prepared by other ministries. The Ministry of Interior controls police, prosecutors, jails, border police, fire-fighters and so on, and oversees the public sector (post classification, compensations & benefits, training, etc.).

So that's what an Interior Ministry is suppose to do! I actually had no idea.

In Scandinavian countries it is very rarely a problem that the Ministry of Justice controls both the courts and the police, though.

Yeah, because you never had home-grown fascism, don't typically suffer much from corruption, have an established tradition of freedom of press, and units (even cities) are small enough for citizen control to work. While I seriously hope it stays that way in Scandinavia, from a systemic perspective, the two functions need to be separated.
A welcome side-effect is that you can put a "law-and-order" party in charge of the Ministry of Interior, and liberals/libertarians into the Ministry of Justice, which facilitates coalition-building quite a lot, and contains the damage right-wing populists may cause to civil liberties. [It of course only works if there is a civil-rights minded party within the government, but not with grand coalitions].

[The Lord Marbury]

Right now I'm a few hours into the Social Democratic Youth congress, where I'm proudly representing my district as a delegate. Lots of interesting discussions going on like last night with the principles committee apparently having some heated discussions about switching out Democratic Socialism for Social Democracy in our principle program. Brings backs memories of the heavy factional infighting between the right and left during the 90s and early 2000s. Though this specific issue won't be big fight since there's a majority in favor of keeping it the way it is.

Also, walking by LO chairman Karl-Petter Thorwaldsson and former party leaders Mona Sahlin and Håkan Juholt in the hallways: I'll admit, I was starstruck.