The Big Bad Swedish Politics & News Thread

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

So, the poll of all polls

It's a vastly overrated poll.
But as always it'll be intresting to see results for sub-groups.

[HansOslo]

It looks like the Centre party and the Christian Democrats are doing pretty badly. Is it because their voters are dying off (like the Christian Democrats and the Centre party in Norway), or is it because the voters are disillusioned by the Alliance government?

Will Reinfeldts government be able to hold on if the aforementioned parties drop below 4% in the next election? Or will they be able to continue as a minority government with the aid of the Swedish Democrats?

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

It looks like the Centre party and the Christian Democrats are doing pretty badly. Is it because their voters are dying off (like the Christian Democrats and the Centre party in Norway), or is it because the voters are disillusioned by the Alliance government?

Christian Democrats are dying off.
Centre Party voters are disillusioned.

[Hifly]

I'm sorry if this has been discussed before (it probably has), but can anyone provide a list of precincts in which the KD won a plurality or majority (or got, let's say, over c.30% of the vote). I can't imagine there being that many.

[Tayya]

Five such precincts exist:

Donsö-Vrångö, Gothenburg Municipality, 41.13%
Dyrön, Tjörn Municipality, 41.95%
Fotö, Öckerö Municipality, 41.48%
Rörö, Öckerö Municipality, 37.64%
Åstol, Tjörn Municipality, 54.17% (!)

All precincts are located in the Gothenburg-area archipelago. Only Donsö-Vrångö is the usual size of a precinct, 1000-1500 people, the others have less than 400 voters each.

[batmacumba]

Do the results on neighbouring countries affect voting intentions on Sweden? I'm thinking about this year's Norwegian election.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

So, the poll of all polls - Statistics Sweden's biannual poll - is coming on Tuesday.

It's here:

S - 35,6%   131 seats
M - 26,9%   99 seats
MP - 8,5%   31 seats
SD - 7,7%   28 seats
V - 6,4%   23 seats
FP - 6,0%   22 seats
C - 4,2%   15 seats
KD - 3,6%

Centre-left: 50,5%   185 seats
Alliance: 40,7%   136 seats

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Which party do you think is the best party over-all?

Men:

S - 34,1%
M - 32,7%
SD - 7,9%
MP - 6,3%
V - 6,1%
FP - 5,0%
C - 4,3%
KD - 2,3%

Centre-left: 46,5%
Alliance: 44,3%

Women:

S - 39,0%
M - 26,2%
MP - 11,1%
V - 6,5%
FP - 6,2%
SD - 3,6%
KD - 3,4%
C - 3,0%

Centre-left: 56,6%
Alliance: 38,8%


Age: 18-29

S - 30,3%
M - 26,0%
MP - 16,1%
V - 8,4%
SD - 7,6%
FP - 4,5%
KD - 2,2%
C - 2,0%

Centre-left: 54,8%
Alliance: 34,7%

Age: 65+

S - 44,0%
M - 27,8%
FP - 7,0%
C - 5,4%
SD - 4,8%
KD - 3,8%
MP - 3,3%
V - 3,2%

Centre-left: 50,5%
Alliance: 44,0%

Immigrants

S - 49,1%
M - 22,1%
V - 10,2%
MP - 7,2%
SD - 3,9%
FP - 3,5%
C - 0,9%
KD - 0,9%

Centre-left: 66,5%
Alliance: 27,4%

[ingemann]

3,9% of immigrants prefer Sweden Democrats, I guess those are mostly Finns and Swedish talking Finns.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

By region:

(Whoever named these "regions" must be an idiot)

Stockhom County:

M - 36,7%
S - 26,2%
MP - 12,2%
FP - 8,2%
V - 7,0%
SD - 4,1%
KD - 2,5%
C - 1,2%

Alliance: 48,6%
Centre-left: 45,4%

South Sweden:

S - 34,6%
M - 33,1%
MP - 8,2%
SD - 8,0%
FP - 6,0%
V - 4,5%
C - 3,4%
KD - 1,4%


Centre-left: 47,3%
Alliance: 43,9%

Middle & Upper Norrland

S - 52,3%
M - 19,4%
C - 7,2%
V - 7,2%
MP - 6,1%
KD - 2,7%
FP - 2,6%
SD - 2,3%


Centre-left: 65,6%
Alliance: 31,9%


North Mid-Sweden

S - 43,2%
M - 19,0%
MP - 7,9%
V - 7,3%
SD - 6,9%
C - 5,9%
FP - 5,7%
KD - 2,9%


Centre-left: 58,4%
Alliance: 33,5%

East Mid-Sweden

S - 39,3%
M - 27,4%
MP - 6,9%
SD - 6,8%
FP - 5,6%
V - 5,1%
C - 3,9%
KD - 3,8%


Centre-left: 51,3%
Alliance: 40,7%

West Sweden:

S - 36,1%
M - 30,3%
MP - 9,4%
V - 7,5%
SD - 5,2%
FP - 5,1%
C - 3,1%
KD - 2,4%

Centre-left: 53,0%
Alliance: 40,9%

Småland and the Islands: (again, what idiot named these "regions"??!)

S - 38,1%
M - 27,9%
SD - 7,8%
MP - 6,2%
KD - 5,6%
C - 5,4%
V - 5,0%
FP - 3,1%


Centre-left: 49,3%
Alliance: 42,0%

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

3,9% of immigrants prefer Sweden Democrats, I guess those are mostly Finns and Swedish talking Finns.

Well there are a lot of Danish immigrants in south Sweden.

Do the results on neighbouring countries affect voting intentions on Sweden?

Nope, not in the slightest.

[HansOslo]

3,9% of immigrants prefer Sweden Democrats, I guess those are mostly Finns and Swedish talking Finns.

Well there are a lot of Danish immigrants in south Sweden.

Do the results on neighbouring countries affect voting intentions on Sweden?

Nope, not in the slightest.

I have to agree on this. Just look at the period from 2000 to 2010. Norway had a centre-right government from 2001 to 2005, when Sweden had Göran Persson as prime minister. Then in 2006 the Alliance government sweeps into power in Sweden. At that point the left had been in power for a year in Norway . And now it looks like it will turn around again, with Norway getting a blue (as in bourgeois) government, with Sweden reverting back to some sort of leftwing government.

[Leftbehind]

Were they ever in sync with one another?

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Just noticed that we get the poll results by constituency as well. I'll try to post that laterz.

[politicus]

Were they ever in sync with one another?

Back in the SD heyday after WW2, yes. Gerhardsen 1945-51, 1955-1965/Erlander 1946-1969. But even that is not really sync if you look at ups and downs in election results. And since SAP was in power 1936-1976 it gets a little theoretical.

Denmark and Sweden are generally opposites regarding R/L governments.

[Tayya]

Women should run the world.

[HansOslo]

Were they ever in sync with one another?

Back in the SD heyday after WW2, yes. Gerhardsen 1945-51, 1955-1965

It should be mentioned that the Social Democrats were still in power between 1951 and 1955. Einar Gerhardsen resigned in 1951, and was replaced by Oscar Torp. Torp was pressured to relinquish the office in January 1955, when Gerhardsen wanted to return as Prime Minister.

[Gustaf]

3,9% of immigrants prefer Sweden Democrats, I guess those are mostly Finns and Swedish talking Finns.

I'd be surprised if any Swedish-speaking Finns vote Sweden Democrats. Demographically they're as far from SD voters as one can imagine.

I'd guess those are mostly European immigrants from countries where xenophobia and islamophobia are much less stigmatized than in Sweden. Especially I imagine areas like the Balkans.

[politicus]

3,9% of immigrants prefer Sweden Democrats, I guess those are mostly Finns and Swedish talking Finns.

I'd be surprised if any Swedish-speaking Finns vote Sweden Democrats. Demographically they're as far from SD voters as one can imagine.

I'd guess those are mostly European immigrants from countries where xenophobia and islamophobia are much less stigmatized than in Sweden. Especially I imagine areas like the Balkans.

And Denmark, of course.

So are the Swedish speaking Finns mainly well paid academics and other upper middle class types?

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

3,9% of immigrants prefer Sweden Democrats, I guess those are mostly Finns and Swedish talking Finns.

I'd be surprised if any Swedish-speaking Finns vote Sweden Democrats. Demographically they're as far from SD voters as one can imagine.

I'd guess those are mostly European immigrants from countries where xenophobia and islamophobia are much less stigmatized than in Sweden. Especially I imagine areas like the Balkans.

And Denmark, of course.

So are the Swedish speaking Finns mainly well paid academics and other upper middle class types?

Yes, the Swedish speaking population of Finland has historicly been either upper-middleclass academics and businessmen or well-off land-owning farmers, the ones who have immigrated to Sweden has tended to belong to the educated liberal middle-class.

They're very much the opposite of the Finnish speaking Finns that immigrated to Sweden who're poor working-class. Traditionally they've been strongly Social Democratic, but it wouldn't actually be that strange if some of them voted for Sd these days

 

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

The Finland Swedes were definitely very rural and unacademic. The Finns were from smallholds and people working in forrest industry.

I'm not completly uneducated about Finland and the Fenno-Swedes and the history of your country. The upper-middle class of Finland was almost exclusivly Swedish-speaking before the 20th century.

There's a reason why the Stockmanns learnt Swedish when setteling in Finland and not Finish. Because when they emigrated to Finland in the mid 19th century that was the language of their social class, the upper classes.

So I know what I'm talking about in this case.

Also I'm not saying that there aren't and weren't a lot of rural swedish-speakers. As I said, they were also (in large parts) land-owning farmers. But the Swedish-farmers mostly stayed in      Finland, while the Swedish-speaking Finns that immigrated to Sweden came from the well-educated fenno-swedish middle-class. 

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

According to wiki:
Finlandssvenskarna har genom tiderna haft högre emigrationsbenägenhet från Finland än finnarna. Den första stora emigrationsvågen ägde rum mellan 1840 och 1930 och gick huvudsakligen till USA. Den andra emigrationsvågen som började i mindre skala på 1930-talet eskalerade kraftigt strax efter andra världskriget och riktade sig främst till Sverige. Under ett antal år i slutet på 1940-talet och i början på 1950-talet utgjorde finlandssvenskarna omkring hälften av alla emigranter som flyttade från Finland till Sverige. Den andra emigrationsströmmen av finlandssvenskar till Sverige sinade kraftigt i mitten på 1970-talet som en följd av den gynnsamma ekonomiska utvecklingen i Finland. Sverigefinlandssvenskarna har också genom tiderna varit mindre benägna att återvända till Finland än sverigefinnarna

None of that contradicts anything I said.

As for my "assumptions", naturally I was thinking of Nyland and Helsinki (and Åbo)
Österbotten might be the most Swedish-speaking area, but Nyland is historicly a Swedish county, and Helsinki used to be a city that was majority fenno-Swedish. That only changed in the last hundread years, not only because the Finnish speakers started to move in, but because the Swedish-speaking middle-class moved to Sweden.   

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Time for some shameless attention-whoring.  

I got to meet Swedish poitical star Margot Wallström yesterday. Now I don't agree with her politicly, but you have to give her respect for her work for human rights, especially for women. And she's obviously one of the most talanted poiticians we have in this country. (There are few who're basicly handed a Prime Ministership on a silver plate and rejects it... thrice)



I will admit that I was star-struck.

[The Lord Marbury]

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http://sverigesradio.se/sida/artikel.aspx?programid=2054&artikel=5579218

With the Almedalen political week kicking off today I thought I'd share some of the latest polls with you.

Party leader approvals
Fredrik Reinfeldt (M) - 52% (-2)
Stefan Löfven (S) - 43% (+3)
Gustav Fridolin (Mp) - 35% (+8)
Jan Björklund (Fp) - 25% (-2)
Göran Hägglund (Kd) - 24% (-)
Jonas Sjöstedt (V) - 21% (+4)
Åsa Romson (Mp) - 17% (+1)
Annie Lööf (C) - 16% (-2)
Jimmie Åkesson - 12% (-1)


Who would you like to see as Prime Minister after the 2014 election?
Fredrik Reinfeldt (M) - 36%
Stefan Löfven (S) - 36%
Don't know - 19%
Other - 10%

Men
Fredrik Reinfeldt (M) - 41%
Stefan Löfven (S) - 34%
Don't know - 14%
Other - 11%

Women
Stefan Löfven (S) - 38%
Fredrik Reinfeldt (M) - 30%
Don't know - 23%
Other - 14%

Age 18-25
Stefan Löfven (S) - 40%
Fredrik Reinfeldt (M) - 26%
Don't know - 25%
Other - 9%

Age 26-45
Stefan Löfven (S) - 34%
Fredrik Reinfeldt (M) - 33%
Don't know - 19%
Other - 14%

Age 46-65
Stefan Löfven (S) - 36%
Fredrik Reinfeldt (M) - 35%
Don't know - 21%
Other - 7%

Age 65-80
Fredrik Reinfeldt (M) - 48%
Stefan Löfven (S) - 37%
Don't know - 7%
Other - 7%


Should parties form blocs with a common political program before the election

Alliance voters
Yes - 49%
No - 43%
Don't know - 7%
Doesn't mater - 2%

Red-Green voters
No - 63%
Yes - 24%
Don't know - 7%
Doesn't matter - 6%

[Lurker]

Interesting to see that Löfven has finally caught up with Reinfeldt in the "preferred PM" polls. If this is sustained Moderaterna will have lost their greatest advantage over the past few years.