The Big Bad Swedish Politics & News Thread

[Tayya]

The Liberals are easily the most socially liberal, followed by the Centre Party, the Moderates and the Christian Democrats. Well, the Liberals are more social liberal like the American Democrats (gay rights, women's rights etc.) with the Centre Party having a faction that is clearly more liberal on libertarian issues (drugs, immigration et al). Social issues are generally very unimportant in the Moderates, which helps them as a big tent.

Right now I'd say that the economical positions are very hard to determine, as everyone follows the lead of the Pied Pip.. er, Anders Borg. The Liberals are more economically right-wing than people think, the Centre Party has the radicals dragging them rightwards, the Moderates might snap back to the right if Reinfeldt and Borg are booted and the Christian Democrats haven't been talking taxes since I became conscious about politics.

The Christian Democrats are generally very pro-foreign aid et al, but there are parts of the Youth League that seems to have watched Rick Santorum speak one time too many. But no, it's not very likely, I just wanted to highlight the least unlikely road for SD into the government. The Liberals and much of the Centre Party would rather govern with the Social Democrats than the Sweden Democrats.

[politicus]

Okay, the social liberal one is as I expected. Interesting about the Santorum-types, tough.

My impression was that the socio-economic scale was actually:

Moderates - Christian Democrats - Centre - Liberals.

With Folkpartiet/Liberals being the most right winged on economics and Reinfeldt making the Moderates more centrist than the others (especially after Annie L. took Centre to the right) .

[Tayya]

Something like that, yes.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

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That isn't really fair. The only really libertarian proposal we passed during this congress was legalisation of weed. (And 42% even voted against that)

We voted down abolishing the monarchy, voted down fairtax, voted down privatizing water, no to a 0% corporate tax and so on. So the Libretarian faction really only had a single victory, and that's on something that most young liberals and socialists agree on as well. 

[Tayya]

Eh, I guess it was an overstatement, but there is a libertarian faction in CUF that is very vocal compared to any past libertarian movements.

Another poll from YouGov:

Moderates: 27.4% (-1.0%)
Centre Party: 4.2% (+1.5%)
Liberal Party: 5.4% (-0.5%)
Christian Democrats: 3.8% (-4.3%)
Social Democrats: 30.9% (-1.0%)
Greens: 8.2% (-0.4%)
Left Party: 7.6% (+1.9%)
Sweden Democrats: 10.9% (+0.1%)
Others: 1.4% (-0.2%)

We actually have some crosstabs! I'll post some comparisons to the last YouGov poll:

- Moderates actually up with voters over 65, down with younger voters. Unchanged with men, but down with women.
- Centre Party gains BIG among voters aged 18-35 and with women - 1.6% to 5.0% among women and 2.9% to 7.0% among the 18-35 crowd! Most of their gains are in rural areas. Some sort of Annie Lööf effect gaining sympathy? I have no idea.
- Liberal Party also down the most with young voters and women.
- Green Party down the most with men and voters 35-64. Gains among young, old and urban, loses among the 35-64 group and in rural areas.
- Social Democrats down more than 2% with men. Up 3% with voters 35-64, down 8% (!!) with voters 65+. Mostly losses in urban areas.
- Left Party gaining among all groups, especially the young and old.
- Sweden Democrats over 10% in urban areas. What is this I don't even.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Eh, I guess it was an overstatement, but there is a libertarian faction in CUF that is very vocal compared to any past libertarian movements.

I know that. I spent the last weekend debating and hanging out with them. But having a vocal libertairian faction isn't the same as the whole CUF going libertarian and not looking back.

Intresting fact btw, people think it's the Stureplan CUF that is most liberal/libertairian, but they have nothing on the Gothenburg/Kungsbacka CUF.

Christian Democrats: 3.8% (-4.3%)

Typo?

- Centre Party gains BIG among voters aged 18-35 and with women - 1.6% to 5.0% among women and 2.9% to 7.0% among the 18-35 crowd! Most of their gains are in rural areas. Some sort of Annie Lööf effect gaining sympathy? I have no idea.

Nice
Guess who's back, back again! 

- Green Party down the most with men and voters 35-64. Gains among young, old and urban, loses among the 35-64 group and in rural areas.

There were Green voters in rural areas to begin with?

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

BTW all the Swedish posters should check out PolitikExtra on YouTube.
He does some rather funny political satire. (and he's good looking too)

SSU parody
MUF parody

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Since I'm suppouse to study for my finals, I made some maps...

Left-Right result for Sweden's 29 constituencies' since 1973. (First unicameral general election) 

Centre-right = M + C + Fp (+ Kd)
Centre-left = S + V (+ Mp)












The 1994 map gives me nightmares.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Sweden is like Britain; all kinds of things change, but the underlying patterns are remarkably stable.

With regards to the former, Västerbotten is interesting. What's behind that shift?

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

With regards to the former, Västerbotten is interesting. What's behind that shift?

I'm not sure, but I have a few theories.

The county is much more urbanised today than it was in the 70's. In 1976 only 21% of the population lived in the largest city "Red" Umeå, but today it's 31% of the county's population that live there, and a lot are people from other left-wing areas in north Sweden.

The parts of Västerbotten that used to be it's centre-right heartland was also mostly rural/agrarian Centre Party voters, and as C declined as the major force on the right so did these old Centre strong-holds.

Also, I believe what pushed Västerbotten over the edge in the 70's also had a lot to do with home state advantage for Thorbjörn Fälldin.   


What I completly fail to understand though is Gotland, and how it went from the centre-right's 2nd best constituency to it's 18th best. 

 

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Fäldin is/was from Ångermanland (I read once his memoirs). There is some free church areas in Västerbotten, which could affect the support of FP.

Which is right on the border of Västerbotten. And if I don't remember incorrectly he was only born in Ångermanland, but lived in Västerbotten.

And he's still alive. I met two of his grandkids at the Centre Youth Congress. ^^

[batmacumba]

New month, new polls





I've organized the parties in a way that big changes on one side of the bar for each party do not impact the other side (i.e., trying to read the patterns of voting exchange). Critics will be wellcomed.

[Leftbehind]

Not sure SD should be before KD.

[batmacumba]

Not sure SD should be before KD.

Well, there is a clear exchange beteen SD and the Moderates, with many months in which the parties bars boudaries varied, but SD's right boundary didn't, and there is one month in which SD/KD boundary varied, but SD/Mod didn't. Sure, I know this may mean nothing, due chain vote changing, but I thought that trying to observe this on the long run could lead to interesting analisys.
The current month has only one poll, so I'm waiting to see if the probable exchange directly between KD/Mod that seems visible (the only one, until now) will be sustained.

[Gustaf]

Sweden is like Britain; all kinds of things change, but the underlying patterns are remarkably stable.

With regards to the former, Västerbotten is interesting. What's behind that shift?

I think one explanation is that it used to be very evangelical and thus vote for the Liberals. The decline in religiosity would then make some sense.

Then you have the urbanization - the really rural areas has traditionally often voted Centre while more densely populated parts of rural areas vote left. The former has lost weight over time.

[Lurker]

And he's [Fälldin] still alive. I met two of his grandkids at the Centre Youth Congress. ^^

Have Fälldin made any statements on what he thinks of the Centre Party of today (certainly much more right-wing than in his time)? And what is the feeling amongst older Centre members in general about the current direction of the party?

[politicus]

Sweden is like Britain; all kinds of things change, but the underlying patterns are remarkably stable.

With regards to the former, Västerbotten is interesting. What's behind that shift?

I think one explanation is that it used to be very evangelical and thus vote for the Liberals. The decline in religiosity would then make some sense.

Then you have the urbanization - the really rural areas has traditionally often voted Centre while more densely populated parts of rural areas vote left. The former has lost weight over time.

The historical link between Evangelical Free Churches, the temperance movement and Liberalism in Sweden is really odd. Why did those types not join the Agrarian Association/Centre?

[politicus]

The centre and its predecessors were more loyal to Svenska kyrkan.  This difference can be seen in difference between Jönköpings län and Kronoborgs län.

Okay, but it doesn't quite explain the why. Somehow early peasant leaders must have been pro-establishment, maybe because they were chosen among the wealthier peasants? Also perhaps it was less anti-aristocratic than most peasant movements given that most Swedish peasant owned their own land.

The Swedish concept of frisinne http://sv.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frisinne is a strange deviation from standard Liberalism and somewhat related to Grundtvigianism in Denmark (which is also a weird "ideology").

[Antonio the Sixth]

Since I'm suppouse to study for my finals, I made some maps...

Left-Right result for Sweden's 29 constituencies' since 1973. (First unicameral general election) 

Centre-right = M + C + Fp (+ Kd)
Centre-left = S + V (+ Mp)












The 1994 map gives me nightmares.

Very interesting! Some day I'm going to study Swedish politics in greater detail, that's really fascinating!

BTW, do the constituencies correspond to counties? Or portions of counties? Or groups of counties? Or is there no relationship at all?

[Antonio the Sixth]

The 1994 map gives me nightmares.

Well, Bildt was such an epic fail.

[Tayya]

Poll alert! (SIFO)

New SIFO poll!

Moderate Party: 28.4% (+0.5)
Liberal Party: 6.4% (+1.0)
Christian Democrats: 2.7% (-0.9)
Centre Party: 4.1% (+0.6)
Social Democrats: 32.8% (-1.6)
Green Party: 10.9% (+2.0)
Left Party: 7.0% (n/a)
Sweden Democrats: 6.6% (-1.4)
Others: 1.1% (-0.2)

S+MP+V: 50.7%
M+FP+C+KD: 41.6% (38.9% without KD)
S+MP+FP: 50.1%

[Antonio the Sixth]

Let's pray these numbers hold...

[You kip if you want to...]

What are approvals of the leaders like? Preferred PM?

[Tayya]

I doubt the numbers will hold. It will be close.

Most people prefer Reinfeldt who has high approvals, but Stefan Löfven is doing far better than Sahlin and Juholt, of course. The minor party leaders have more mediocre approvals, with Jimmie Åkesson at the bottom. The Sweden Democrats do have a ceiling at not that high above what they've been reaching in the polls, but it's getting increasingly higher.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

And he's [Fälldin] still alive. I met two of his grandkids at the Centre Youth Congress. ^^

Have Fälldin made any statements on what he thinks of the Centre Party of today (certainly much more right-wing than in his time)? And what is the feeling amongst older Centre members in general about the current direction of the party?

Nope, he's not made any statements about the party for a decade as far as I'm aware off. But he's very old and frail. Older Centre Party members have not been happy about the party's direction, but that's a given.

BTW, do the constituencies correspond to counties? Or portions of counties? Or groups of counties? Or is there no relationship at all?

They correspond to the counties, but the three most populus counties (Stockholm, Västra Götaland, and Skåne) are split into smaller constituencies.