The Big Bad Swedish Politics & News Thread

[Tayya]

Oh Lord, I'd forgotten about that gaffe. For the record, Kinberg Batra went to school with my former history teacher in Danderyd (Sweden's own Chelsea, ridiculously rich and Moderate-voting) and is married to famous comedian David Batra (who could see his career being boosted, but also potentially destroyed). Normally, that would be good news for the Centre Party, but right now the rural voters might go to the Christian Democrats instead. Or the Sweden Democrats. Crud. A few would switch to the Social Democrats too, of course.

Actually, both the Moderates and the Social Democrats have bizarrely thin benches. I think I can name more potential party leaders from the Centre Party than each of them. The Moderate really only have Borg and Kinberg Batra, and maybe Engström, Carlsson and Elmsäter-Svärd. All other candidates are too weak or too controversial. And the Social Democrats are just eternally bad at finding talent, they're used to coronations, but that has kind of not been possible since the freaking 80's due to cinemas, chocolate, NK and chocolate/mediocrity/red-green röra, respectively. Marbury, get your party to grow up. I want to see primaries happen.

For the record, Mrs. Schyman visited us as well. There are advantages to being a large, prestigious school in Stockholm, I guess. I want to question that we're bourgeois elitists, though - if nothing else, there are exceptions. But yes, the Social Democratic base would be the rural working class, while the bourgeois latte liberals in the cities vote Green, Liberal or Feminist Initiative (not that many do, but even fewer outside the cities do)

[The Lord Marbury]

Oh Lord, I'd forgotten about that gaffe. For the record, Kinberg Batra went to school with my former history teacher in Danderyd (Sweden's own Chelsea, ridiculously rich and Moderate-voting) and is married to famous comedian David Batra (who could see his career being boosted, but also potentially destroyed). Normally, that would be good news for the Centre Party, but right now the rural voters might go to the Christian Democrats instead. Or the Sweden Democrats. Crud. A few would switch to the Social Democrats too, of course.

Oh yeah, I know what you mean about rural voters not going to the Centre Party. Just in the past two years I've met 11 Centre Party members who are now former members because they gave up their membership. Most of them are now independent swing voters, but 3 of them, including my great uncle have actually joined the Social Democrats. And he was real Centre Party core voter being a farmer, small business owner and all that. He was even the president of his local CUF (or SLU as it was called then) back in the day! But after going on for years and years about how he didn't recognize his party anymore he finally jumped ship last year and moved over to the other team. I'm not sure how many will switch to the Christian Democrats though. Maybe on a national level since the national party leadership isn't really that crazy or extreme, but on the local level Christian Democrats are the most hyper conservative moralizing people in existence. I don't see Centre voters supporting them on that level. Though sadly the Sweden Democrats are definite possibility, especially in rural communities in southern Sweden. But strangly enough, not up here. For some reason they just don't have much of a presence here...

Actually, both the Moderates and the Social Democrats have bizarrely thin benches. I think I can name more potential party leaders from the Centre Party than each of them. The Moderate really only have Borg and Kinberg Batra, and maybe Engström, Carlsson and Elmsäter-Svärd. All other candidates are too weak or too controversial. And the Social Democrats are just eternally bad at finding talent, they're used to coronations, but that has kind of not been possible since the freaking 80's due to cinemas, chocolate, NK and chocolate/mediocrity/red-green röra, respectively. Marbury, get your party to grow up. I want to see primaries happen.

Trust me, I'm right there with you on that and from what I've heard and from what I think personally, the party has learned from the criticism directed towards it over the highly closed off process it went through when Juholt was picked as leader. And I expect that next time there is a change in leader we will see a more open process. It may or may not be a multi-candidate thing depending on the situation. If the next leadership change takes place when the party is once again in opposition and going through another period of soul searching, then I think it's very much possible that we'll see several candidates openly running for the job, but if the change is when the party is in government with Stefan Löfven willingly stepping down after a long and successful time as leader, I'm not sure about there being a multi-candidate race because then there'd most likely be a strong crown prince/princess waiting in the wings. That and the fact that they party wouldn't want to look weak and splintered while in government talks against something like that happening while in government.

For the record, Mrs. Schyman visited us as well. There are advantages to being a large, prestigious school in Stockholm, I guess. I want to question that we're bourgeois elitists, though - if nothing else, there are exceptions. But yes, the Social Democratic base would be the rural working class, while the bourgeois latte liberals in the cities vote Green, Liberal or Feminist Initiative (not that many do, but even fewer outside the cities do)

Oh don't worry, that wasn't directed at you in any way. It was just how I used to think a few years back when I was fair bit more radical, in my pre-SSU days and all that. At the time I was actually considering joining Young Left but then I actually met some local members who were bloody insane to put it lightly, and that whole experience got me thinking in more sane directions which eventually led me to SSU.

Yep pretty much, though immigrants or at least immigrant-heavy communities are also SAP strongholds, something which is obvious just by looking at these numbers:
http://www.alliansfrittsverige.nu/2013/03/muf-ostra-real-goes-rinkeby.html

Oh, and rejoice!

DN/Ipsos:
Left - 5,5% (±0)
Social Democrats - 34,6% (+1,5)
Greens - 9,2% (+0,1)

Centre - 3,8% (±0)
Liberal - 5,6% (+0,4)
Moderate - 28,0% (-0,1)
Christian Democrats - 4,0% (+1,0)

Sweden Democrats - 8,0% (-2,2)

Red-Greens - 49,4%
The Alliance - 41,4%

Seats:
Left - 19 seats
Social Democrats - 127 seats
Greens - 34 seats

Centre - 0 seats
Liberal - 19 seats
Moderate - 105 seats
Christian Democrats - 15 seats

Sweden Democrats - 30 seats

Red-Greens - 180 seats (majority of 5)
The Alliance - 124 seats

Yep, the Sweden Democrats are decreasing by 2%! Granted the only statistically certain change is the increase of the Social Democrats but I'll take what I can get, and that's pretty damn good too...

[Antonio the Sixth]

Red-Green is nearing 50%!

The election is held in fall 2014 though, right?

[The Lord Marbury]

Red-Green is nearing 50%!

The election is held in fall 2014 though, right?

Yep, it's held on Sunday September 14th, 2014.

[MaxQue]

I'm surprised to see there is so much Swedes here.
Hopefully, that will raise awareness towards Swedish politics, which aren't clear for many.
Myself, I have a tendency to confuse Danish and Swedish politics.

The main left party is having issues with the other left parties and the main right-wing party has a wierd name and plenty of small allies.

[Franzl]

I'm surprised to see there is so much Swedes here.
Hopefully, that will raise awareness towards Swedish politics, which aren't clear for many.
Myself, I have a tendency to confuse Danish and Swedish politics.

The main left party is having issues with the other left parties and the main right-wing party has a wierd name and plenty of small allies.

It's a particularly awesome part of the world and certainly worth paying attention to

[Lurker]

Actually, both the Moderates and the Social Democrats have bizarrely thin benches.

The selection of Mona Sahlin as party leader is a great example of that. Still can't believe that Socialdemokraterna made such an absurd decision. After what happened in '95, and Sahlin's coverage in the press, anyone must have been a better choice, surely (even a random backbencher). Could anyone explain this choice?

That they couldn't manage to find a single leadership candidate amongst 110-or-so MPs, would also seem to prove this point - although in fairness, Löfven appears to be doing well.

[The Lord Marbury]

Actually, both the Moderates and the Social Democrats have bizarrely thin benches.

The selection of Mona Sahlin as party leader is a great example of that. Still can't believe that Socialdemokraterna made such an absurd decision. After what happened in '95, and Sahlin's coverage in the press, anyone must have been a better choice, surely (even a random backbencher). Could anyone explain this choice?

That they couldn't manage to find a single leadership candidate amongst 110-or-so MPs, would also seem to prove this point - although in fairness, Löfven appears to be doing well.

Basically, the "crown princess" Anna Lindh was gone and all the other top candidates like Margot Wallström, Pär Nuder, Ulrica Messing and Thomas Bodström said no to the job and with the lack of any serious high profile candidates to speak of, Sahlin simply got the job because she was somewhat well known (for all the wrong reasons) and it was "her turn" in a manner of speaking.

[The Lord Marbury]

Also, there's a new SIFO poll out today with the approvals of all the party leaders:

Approval numbers
Fredrik Reinfeldt (M) - 63% (+1)
Stefan Löfven (S) - 45% (-3)
Gustav Fridolin (MP) - 40% (+1)
Jan Björklund (FP) - 32% (±0)
Göran Hägglund (KD) - 28% (-2)
Åsa Romson (MP) - 22% (-7)
Jonas Sjöstedt (V) - 21% (-3)
Annie Lööf (C) - 16% (-4)
Jimmie Åkesson (SD) - 13% (±0)

Disapproval numbers
Jimmie Åkesson (SD) - 55%
Annie Lööf (C) - 30%
Jonas Sjöstedt (V) - 18%
Göran Hägglund (KD) - 17%
Jan Björklund (FP) - 16%
Åsa Romson (MP) - 16%
Gustav Fridolin (MP) - 13%
Fredrik Reinfeldt (M) - 10%
Stefan Löfven (S) - 9%

Approvals among women
Fredrik Reinfeldt (M) - 57%
Stefan Löfven (S) - 40%
Gustav Fridolin (MP) - 39%
Jan Björklund (FP) - 31%
Göran Hägglund (KD) - 28%
Åsa Romson (MP) - 23%
Jonas Sjöstedt (V) - 19%
Annie Lööf (C) - 16%
Jimmie Åkesson (SD) - 9%

Approvals among men
Fredrik Reinfeldt (M) - 68%
Stefan Löfven (S) - 48%
Gustav Fridolin (MP) - 39%
Jan Björklund (FP) - 33%
Göran Hägglund (KD) - 30%
Jonas Sjöstedt (V) - 24%
Åsa Romson (MP) - 22%
Jimmie Åkesson (SD) - 18%
Annie Lööf (C) - 15%

Approvals among young voters (18-29)
Fredrik Reinfeldt (M) - 52%
Gustav Fridolin (MP) - 36%
Åsa Romson (MP) - 30%
Stefan Löfven (S) - 30%
Göran Hägglund (KD) - 24%
Jonas Sjöstedt (V) - 19%
Jan Björklund (FP) - 15%
Jimmie Åkesson (SD) - 13%
Annie Lööf (C) - 13%

Yikes. These numbers must be giving the guys at Centre Party HQ one hell of a headache right now....

[Leftbehind]

Christ those figures for Annie Lööf are hilarious, and richly deserved.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Sigh I remember a time when Maud Olofsson had the highest approvals of the party leaders. How things have changed since '06.

[Tayya]

The opposition blew a far bigger lead last time, though, and I expect them to do it again. Let's not kid ourselves, the core Moderate voters can save both C and KD as long as they stay above 2.5% or so.

[The Lord Marbury]

Christ those figures for Annie Lööf are hilarious, and richly deserved.

Indeed. Lööf is living proof that the idea that just picking someone youthful without putting much consideration into qualifications is a pretty stupid idea for a party to make.

The opposition blew a far bigger lead last time, though, and I expect them to do it again. Let's not kid ourselves, the core Moderate voters can save both C and KD as long as they stay above 2.5% or so.

I agree that it is quite likely that C and KD will make it over the 4% threshold thanks to Moderate support as long as they don't drop too far down, though I do think that the opposition have a much better chance of eating into the government's lead this time around because now they actually have some compentent people in charge.

[politicus]

I'm surprised to see there is so much Swedes here.
Hopefully, that will raise awareness towards Swedish politics, which aren't clear for many.
Myself, I have a tendency to confuse Danish and Swedish politics.

The main left party is having issues with the other left parties and the main right-wing party has a wierd name and plenty of small allies.

True. But at least according to some polls the main "left wing" party in Denmark will soon be a right wing populist party in a love/hate relationship with our main right wing party with the weird name. So maybe that partcular problem will soon disappear. Besides Danish party names are generally weirder than the Swedish ones. Calling the main right wing party "the Left"  (instead of just Moderates as in Sweden) and using "Radical Left" for our ultimate moderate heroes. Also Denmark has two so-called "Peoples Parties" polling below 5% (Conservative and Socialist), Sweden only has one and our most reactionarian party is called The Progress Party.

[ingemann]

Oh yeah, I know what you mean about rural voters not going to the Centre Party. Just in the past two years I've met 11 Centre Party members who are now former members because they gave up their membership. Most of them are now independent swing voters, but 3 of them, including my great uncle have actually joined the Social Democrats. And he was real Centre Party core voter being a farmer, small business owner and all that. He was even the president of his local CUF (or SLU as it was called then) back in the day! But after going on for years and years about how he didn't recognize his party anymore he finally jumped ship last year and moved over to the other team. I'm not sure how many will switch to the Christian Democrats though. Maybe on a national level since the national party leadership isn't really that crazy or extreme, but on the local level Christian Democrats are the most hyper conservative moralizing people in existence. I don't see Centre voters supporting them on that level. Though sadly the Sweden Democrats are definite possibility, especially in rural communities in southern Sweden. But strangly enough, not up here. For some reason they just don't have much of a presence here...

There are nothing strange about it. There are clear historical reason for why rural South Sweden vote difference from the rural north.
Historical the north have been populated by poor rural worker, who even if they owned land, had to work in non-agricultural work and was often semi-migrating.
In south you could live of agriculture, and if you migrated you usual moved permanent to either  Copenhagen, Malmö or a industry town. This created a population which was richer, as people could live of their land, and ones who couldn't moved to urban areas, where they could live of their new jobs. The result was that the people was less loyal to SAP, than the very poor workers of the north. It simply give a higher degree of party loyalty, when people can still tell stories about ancestors who starved, until the unions and SAP put an end to it. It's also why SocDem have never done as well in Denmark as in Sweden and Norway, Danes was simply to well off, to develop the same degree of party loyalty. 

[Antonio the Sixth]

Why are Löfven's approvals so mediocre? Based on what you guys said, I'd have expected him to be on par with Reinfeldt.

[The Lord Marbury]

Why are Löfven's approvals so mediocre? Based on what you guys said, I'd have expected him to be on par with Reinfeldt.

That's largely because Löfven has kept a relatively low profile for the past year, partly because it was a good thing to do in order to give the party time to rebuild and stabilize after Juholt, and partly because he doesn't have a seat in parliament.

Also it's important to keep in mind that he is up against Fredrik Reinfeldt, who despite his backwards politics is a very skilled communicator who has the ability to appear sympathetic to almost any group of people in society even when they do not benefit at all from his policies. Under those circumstances Löfven's approvals are actually quite decent with a good potential for growth, and he's still higher than both Sahlin and Juholt ever were and also higher than Reinfeldt was before he got elected back in the spring of '06.

[Tayya]

It doesn't help that Löfven can't stick his head out too much, as the Social Democrats is very much a big tent, and the many years in opposition have made that tent quite fragile.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Why are Löfven's approvals so mediocre? Based on what you guys said, I'd have expected him to be on par with Reinfeldt.

Reinfeldt has had nine years as party leader to build his huge capital of trust among voters, and by now he is an experienced statesman that people (even those who disagree with him on policy) think is a very competent leader.

Löfvén on the other hand is an untried card. People find him sympathetic, and no one disputes that he's the most competent S leader since Persson (but that wasn't a hard competition) but bisides that there's really not much to him. He has no political brand out-side of his union leadership, and most people had no idea who he was before he became leader, and since then he's done his best to be as anonymus and low-profile as possible. Considering that, it is remarkable how strong his approvals are.  

[The Lord Marbury]

Oh yeah, I know what you mean about rural voters not going to the Centre Party. Just in the past two years I've met 11 Centre Party members who are now former members because they gave up their membership. Most of them are now independent swing voters, but 3 of them, including my great uncle have actually joined the Social Democrats. And he was real Centre Party core voter being a farmer, small business owner and all that. He was even the president of his local CUF (or SLU as it was called then) back in the day! But after going on for years and years about how he didn't recognize his party anymore he finally jumped ship last year and moved over to the other team. I'm not sure how many will switch to the Christian Democrats though. Maybe on a national level since the national party leadership isn't really that crazy or extreme, but on the local level Christian Democrats are the most hyper conservative moralizing people in existence. I don't see Centre voters supporting them on that level. Though sadly the Sweden Democrats are definite possibility, especially in rural communities in southern Sweden. But strangly enough, not up here. For some reason they just don't have much of a presence here...

There are nothing strange about it. There are clear historical reason for why rural South Sweden vote difference from the rural north.
Historical the north have been populated by poor rural worker, who even if they owned land, had to work in non-agricultural work and was often semi-migrating.
In south you could live of agriculture, and if you migrated you usual moved permanent to either  Copenhagen, Malmö or a industry town. This created a population which was richer, as people could live of their land, and ones who couldn't moved to urban areas, where they could live of their new jobs. The result was that the people was less loyal to SAP, than the very poor workers of the north. It simply give a higher degree of party loyalty, when people can still tell stories about ancestors who starved, until the unions and SAP put an end to it. It's also why SocDem have never done as well in Denmark as in Sweden and Norway, Danes was simply to well off, to develop the same degree of party loyalty.  

Interesting analysis, but in today's world blaming it on party loyalty falls a bit short since it isn't really all what it used to be, even not up here believe it or not. And after putting some thought into it I actually think it's possible that the reason for SDs lack of growth up here might the lack of any serious right wing forces up here in the north previously. Because one would assume that the primary growth areas of the Sweden Democrats are disaffected Social Democrats like in Denmark for example, but polling have actually shown that while former SAP voters are a key group moving to SD, the biggest group is actually former Moderate voters. Were talking old pre-Reinfeldt Moderates here of course, the ones who believe in strong national defense, lower taxes and stricter immigration control (duh) and all that stuff, but feel that the "new" Moderates are being far too soft in those areas. However we've never really had a lot of those types around here before. The only true right wing force up here for a long time has been the Centre Party, though now with them at the decline I suppose that SD could pick up a fair share of their voters as well, at least the small c (or k) conservative rural voters.

[The Lord Marbury]

Well yesterday Stefan Löfven finally became the Social Democrats party leader in a way "for real" since he was elected for the party congress for the first time and gave a truly cracking speech where he not only attacked the inactive government a few times, but further defined himself and the Social Democrats ahead of next years election. I dare even say that he came of as Prime Ministerial (though I'm sure that others would disagree ).
http://www.thelocal.se/47144/20130404/#.UV5NhRlEqHA

Later today however is when we'll see a real battle over the party's future as the congress will vote over wether to cap profits of private enterprises (which recieve taxpayer funding!) in the welfare sector. Löfven and the executive committee have presented a proposal which wouldn't cap profits but only put some slightly more strict regulations over the companies, something which many party members include myself see as a far too tame.

Personally I would rather see something along the lines of the proposals put for by LO, the Swedish Trade Union Confederation, which would in essence mean that profits would not be fully banned but capped so that companies operating in the welfare sector would have significantly smaller profit margins than regular ones. It's probably quite unlikely that the proposal will make it through the congress, but I could settle for some sort of compromise which at leasts give the municipalities a veto so that they can decide if private enterprises operating education or healthcare services can set up shop in their municipality and if they can take out profits from the business.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Wait, what are "companies in the welfare sector"? You mean insurance companies?

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Wait, what are "companies in the welfare sector"? You mean insurance companies?

Private hospitals, and schools, and so on.

[politicus]

Wait, what are "companies in the welfare sector"? You mean insurance companies?

No companies managing welfare areas, like nursing homes.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

The debate going on is basicly wether privte hospitals, schools, and nursing homes should be allowed to make a profit on their business if it's a business that is fully or partially state funded and is suppouse to provide welfere to someone.

The left's argument being that it's immoral to make a profit on something that is tax-payer funded (so funded by national health insurence, or school voachers) as well as that allowing profits will naturally lead to companies cutting the quality of care and education in order to make large profit.

While the right argue that it would be wrong to be able to make money by making bombs (the military weapon industry in Sweden is huge) while if you do something good like provide health care or education you're not allowed to make money on it, and that the problem with busnisses cutting the quality of care or education is solved by the free market. If your school or hospital doesn't live up to your expectations you switch to another alternative.

The counter argument to that being that switching your hospital/school/nursing home isn't like switching to another brand of bread in the super market, and that (especially when it comes to schools and nursing homes) it's a question of people being too young and too old to be able to make good choices for themselves.     

The question has been splitting the Social Democrats in their traditional right- and left- fractions for quite a while.

LO, (Swedish Trade Union Confederation) who're usually completly worthless, actually come up with a good compromise proposal, which even though I don't agree with it, I think would be a winning position in an election. But if Marbury is correct (and I count on him knowing his party better than I do) that will probably not be adapted.