Schleswig-Holstein state election

[freek]

Does the SSV contest elections for the German Parliament?

No. The SSW does take part in the election of the German president by the electoral college though. Half (?) of the electors are chosen by the regional parliaments (the other half are the MPs from the Bundestag). In Schleswig-Holstein, the SSW is not large enough to secure one seat in the electoral college. However, they traditionally receive a seat in the SPD-delegation to the electoral college.

[Jens]

How is the status of the SSW legally defined?  That is, could any party declare itself to be a minority party and not be be subject to the threshold, or are there other tests applied?

Can voters vote for any party?  Do the CDU or SPD appeal for Danish support, and how do they do so?

Voters can vote for any party. SSV's main group is the Danish and Frisian minorities but SSV also gets German votes. The SSV exeption from the threshold was part of an agreement between Denmark and BRD in the early fifthies where the Danish minority in South Schleswig and the German minority in North Schleswig/Sonderjutland got special priviliges

Is the exemption for the SSV spelled out for that particular party, or could any party declare that they target Danish and/or Frisian minorities.  For example, could a party adopt the platform of the CDU or SPD, but with an emphasis on minority advocacy, name itself with the Danish equivalent of the German party name and contest elections.  Its single member could always sit with its sister party.

Does the SSV contest elections for the German Parliament?

I do like that you use the Danish abbreviation

Sydslesvigske Vælgerforening SSV

[jimrtex]

Indeed a good question. I just took a look at the electoral law of Schleswig-Holstein. In article 3, section 1 it is stated that "parties of the danish minority" are excluded from the 5%-clause. The SSW is not specifically mentioned. But it´s noteworthy that the plural is used ("parties" instead of "THE party of the danish minority").

I´m not totally sure about this, but I would say that in the case that another danish party is founded, it´s up to the election supervisor of the state to decide. If he or she refuses to grant the party this special status it would probably end up before the court.

Ironically, I met CDU members who already claim that the SSW is just a danish-speaking "spin-off" of the SPD.

This system could have a tendency to lock Danish speakers in.  They either have to accept the political ideology of the SSW, or vote for a German party.

I wonder what would happen if they followed the New Zealand model.  As I understand it, Maori's can choose to be on the national voting role or the Maori voting role.  Constitutiencies are defined based on the number that choose each.  I think one of the Maori constituencies is the entire South Island.

In a proportional system like Germany, Danish speakers could choose a Danish ballot, and the first allocation of seats would be based on the number of voters who voted with a Danish or German ballot.  Then the seats would be allocated separately for the Danish and German groups.  The threshold (5%?) could be maintained since it is likely that several parties would achieve 5% of the Danish vote (there might a higher effective threshold because of the small number of seats).  Candidates could be formally affiliated with the German parties, or they could run on an separate Danish party.

[minionofmidas]

The problem is...you'd need a quite large state house if 5% of the minority vote is to produce a seat.

[jimrtex]

The problem is...you'd need a quite large state house if 5% of the minority vote is to produce a seat.

If an elected  body has more has than 20 members, the 5% threshold serves to deny representation to parties who would otherwise be entitled to proportional representation.  Rather than saying that if you get 5% of the vote you will be represented, it says if you fail to do so
you won't be represented.

If the Danish minority had a electorate that was equivalent to less than
20 seats, then those seats would be distributed in proportion to the
votes of the Danish voters.  There would be a higher effective threshold, but nobody would be denied their proportionate share.

[minionofmidas]

While that's true, hte point is that it's not practicable for a minority this small. There's 69 seats in the Schleswig-Holstein state house. The SSW won 3.5% of the vote. Go figure.

BTW: That actually happened on the Frankfurt ward council of Kalbach in 1997. Republikaner won 5.3% of the vote but got none of the nine seats. They tried to sue, but of course lost.

[Notre Dame rules!]

I heard on Deutsche Welle that unemployment is up again.  This can't be good news for the SPD going into the NR-W elections.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Well, it certainly won´t improve their chances...

It has been a while since the last poll for the NRW elections was released. The latest came out on February 13 and showed CDU/FDP and SPD/Greens tied with 46% to 46%:

CDU 39%
SPD 37%
Greens 9%
FDP 7%
Others 8%

[skybridge]

I can't believe some of you still refer to Prussia.

[Middle-aged Europe]

A new NRW state election poll was released just yesterday:

CDU 42%
SPD 36%
Greens 9%
FDP 7%
Others 6%

[jimrtex]

While that's true, hte point is that it's not practicable for a minority this small. There's 69 seats in the Schleswig-Holstein state house. The SSW won 3.5% of the vote. Go figure.

If people could vote "Dane" rather than "SSW" then there might have been more support than 3.5%.  5.8% would result in 4 Danish seats (or maybe 5.1% on a more favorable rounding rule).

[Notre Dame rules!]

It looks like President Kohler (sp) has proposed a very Bush-like solution for Germany's economic problems--lower taxes for both taxpayers and businesses.

Let's hope for Germany's sake that the SPD heeds his advice.

Let's hope for the CDU's chances next year, that Schroeder remains pig-headed and pursues the big government solution.

[CO-OWL]

SH: Tie at PM election!

SPD incumbent Heide Simonis wanted to govern with a SSW-backed SPD/Green minority coalition holding 35 seats against the 34 seats of CDU and FDP.

But at today's PM election in the Landtag she missed the required majority (1st/2nd ballot) resp. plurality (3rd to ... ballot). She only got 34 votes in rounds 1-4, thus tieing with CDU candidate Peter-Harry Carstensen, since 1 member of the Landtag continued to abstain in the secret ballot.
After the fourth ballot Simonis finally gave up and the Landtag adjourned till April 27th. (Number of possible ballots is unlimited!)
It is widely expected that Simonis will announce her retreat within the following days.

This would leave two possible options:
- SPD/Greens + SSW agree on another PM candidate and try to get enough votes this time (Good luck )
- SPD and CDU form a grand coalition, most likely with Carstensen as PM (CDU has 30 seats, SPD only 29)

Until a new PM is elected, the old government led by Simonis provisionally stays in office.

[Notre Dame rules!]

Grand coalitions have occasionally worked in the past though, haven't they?

[CO-OWL]

Grand coalitions have occasionally worked in the past though, haven't they?

In the Bundestag there was a grand coalition from 1966-69, working rather successfully.

Today grand coalitions exist in the states of Bremen, Brandenburg and Saxony. Although in Saxony (SPD got barely 10%) and Brandenburg (CDU barely 20%) they are not really "grand", since the  PDS came in second in both states.

[minionofmidas]

Grand Coalitions have worked quite often in the past...but not when SPD and CDU were of virtually even size.
I can see two more options, that I actually consider slightly more likely than the two options mentioned (but they're both possible as well): A "traffic light" coalition. And a few months of deadlock followed by new elections.

[CO-OWL]

I can see two more options, that I actually consider slightly more likely than the two options mentioned (but they're both possible as well): A "traffic light" coalition. And a few months of deadlock followed by new elections.

Considering the big differences between FDP and Greens, I think a "traffic light" coalition is very unlikely.
The SPD leadership really wants to settle the SH problems before the NRW election and therefore will try to prevent a lasting deadlock. Moreover without Heide Simonis the SPD's prospects in a new election are rather bleak. Their best "argument" in the whole campaign to vote SPD was HE!DE.

[Notre Dame rules!]

What is the effective tax rate in Germany?  I saw something on TV the other day that said a worker making 45 Euros per hour, has a take home rate of 9 Euros per hour.    That seems like an exceedingly high tax rate, even if it is federal,state, and local.   Is this accurate?

[minionofmidas]

Probably not, although I don't know how they calculated that. *Maybe* if you ínclude sales taxes of all kinds as well...what is true is that taxes, in Germany, is what companies pay the state to be allowed to employ people. Payroll taxes are deducted automatically, they don't reach your pockets for a second. *De facto* tax rates on company profits and on the self-employed, meanwhile, are extremely low. And don't believe for one second that
a) this has got nothing to do with our unemployment rate
b) the CDU would be any more likely to change this than the SPD...or than any conceivable political party anywhere in the world.

Ahem. Back on topic.
Actually I forgot to mention of one more option (which is however exceedingly unlikely) - a CDU/FDP government tolerated by SSW.
There are CDU-SPD talks now, as was inevitable. We'll see if these work out, though. I wouldn't bet on it. Essentially whoever gets the PM spot will have to give up on a host of issues since the parties are effectively of equal strength. The NRW argument sounds good at first glance, though.
One thing I've always been wondering about: is your username short for Ostwestfalen-Lippe?

[CO-OWL]

One thing I've always been wondering about: is your username short for Ostwestfalen-Lippe?

Yes, that's were I live. But I like the bird, too.
Glad to see that OWL is known outside of Northrhine-Westphalia...

[Middle-aged Europe]

Some updates:


1) Citing the SSW in Schleswig-Holstein as a model, the Sorbs (a small slavic people living in the states of Brandenburg and Saxony) formed their own political party yesterday.

The constitution of Brandenburg states that the Sorbian minority is excluded from the 5% clause in state elections (the Sorbs just abstained from taking use of this exemption until now).


2) Nothing new from Schleswig-Holstein. It still seems the state will get a Grand coalition led by Peter Harry Carstensen (CDU).


3) Latest North Rhine-Westphalia polls:

Emnid (03/18)
CDU 43%
SPD 35%
Greens 10%
FDP 7%

Infratest-dimap (03/20)
CDU 42%
SPD 35%
Greens 10%
FDP 7%

[Notre Dame rules!]

Looks like good news for the CDU, which is good news indeed!

[Jake]

Any info on how Carstensen formed the coalition?

[minionofmidas]

What do you mean, how?

Yes, CDU-SPD coalition. Up and running since about four days ago or so.