Schleswig-Holstein state election

[Middle-aged Europe]

We had a topic about the German state elections in September, so I thought I bring up the state election in Schleswig-Holstein on February 20.

Schleswig-Holstein has currently a SPD/Green coalition government under PM Heide Simonis, making Schlesw.-Holst. the only German state with a female head of government. The candidate of the CDU is Peter-Harry Carstensen, former agricultural expert in Edmund Stoiber´s unofficial "shadow cabinet" during the 2002 Bundestag elections.


The latest poll results are:

FGW (Feb. 11)
SPD 40%
CDU 37%
Greens 7%
FDP 7%
SSW 4%
NPD 3%
Others 2%

Infratest-dimap (Feb. 10)
SPD 41%
CDU 36%
Greens 7.5%
FDP 7%
SSW 3%
NPD 2.5%
Others 3%

Forsa (Feb. 8 )
SPD 40%
CDU 37%
Greens 7%
FDP 7%
SSW 3%
Others 6%

The SSW is the party of the Danish and Friesian minority and generally considered to be politically close to the SPD. As an ethnic minority party the SSW is excluded from the 5%-clause (the SSW hasn´t to receive at least 5% of the total vote to win seats).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

You sure those polls aren't the same?

[Middle-aged Europe]

You sure those polls aren't the same?

LOL, yes, I do.

[M]

Never mind that, are they sticking with Prussia or Denmark?

[Jens]

Never mind that, are they sticking with Prussia or Denmark?

Denmark to the Ejder

I'm chearing for SSV, of cause

[Jake]

CDU allies with the FDP right?

[Middle-aged Europe]

CDU allies with the FDP right?

Usually, yes.

I think in the case of Schleswig-Holstein the FDP didn´t completely rule out the possibility of a coalition with the SPD, but everyone knows that this will be more or less unlikely.

As usually, it comes down to "SPD/Greens vs. CDU/FDP". If neither of those two combinations gets a majority, possible alternatives would include a SPD/CDU coalition, a SPD/FDP coaliton or possibly a SSW-backed SPD/Green coalition (?).

But currently it seems that the SPD/Green coalition will be re-elected for another term next sunday.

[The Dowager Mod]

I think Germany should give Schleswig-Holstein back to Denmark.

[Middle-aged Europe]

I think Germany should give Schleswig-Holstein back to Denmark.

But only under the condition that the U.S. gives California back to Mexico first.

I´m getting the impression that the only time an American heard about Schleswig-Holstein was in relation with the war of 1864 (?).

[Erc]

"There are three people who understand the Schleswig-Holstein problem.  One of them died.  One of them went mad.  And I've forgotten about it."

--Lord Palmerston.

[Middle-aged Europe]

"There are three people who understand the Schleswig-Holstein problem.  One of them died.  One of them went mad.  And I've forgotten about it."

--Lord Palmerston.

I guess my impression was correct.

[The Dowager Mod]

I wrote a paper in college about the Kalmar Union.
I do know just a little about Denmark i think.

[minionofmidas]

We gave back the majority Denish-speaking part in 1918. I think that was fair. Let the matter rest now.

[The Dowager Mod]

I was just kidding

[Jens]

We gave back the majority Denish-speaking part in 1918. I think that was fair. Let the matter rest now.

tsk, tsk Lewis! it was in 1920 and on two occations the Slesvig-quetions caused the life of a Danish government. I 1920 when the king fired the Radical government because they wouldn't forcefully annex Flensborg after the city didn't vote Danish ( the king's actions caused a constitutional and political crisis and nearly turned Denmark into a republic) and in 1947 when the Venstre Prime minister Knud Kristensen wanted to annex most of South Slesvig (the Brits asked us if we wanted it) against the will of the Diet majority

[Jens]

I wrote a paper in college about the Kalmar Union.
I do know just a little about Denmark i think.

Sweet, then I guess that 1380 and 1397 should ring a bell. What kind of title do the english speaking give Margrethe I (she was never actually queen of Denmark, you know)?

[Middle-aged Europe]

I assumed that all "border questions" were long settled, so I was a bit suprised about the course of the discussion.

Even the SSW has no separatist demands whatsoever.

[minionofmidas]

We gave back the majority Denish-speaking part in 1918. I think that was fair. Let the matter rest now.

tsk, tsk Lewis! it was in 1920 and on two occations the Slesvig-quetions caused the life of a Danish government. I 1920 when the king fired the Radical government because they wouldn't forcefully annex Flensborg after the city didn't vote Danish ( the king's actions caused a constitutional and political crisis and nearly turned Denmark into a republic) and in 1947 when the Venstre Prime minister Knud Kristensen wanted to annex most of South Slesvig (the Brits asked us if we wanted it) against the will of the Diet majority

Interesting. There actually was a short upswing of pro-Denmark feeling in Schleswig (well, South Schleswig of course) after 1945.
Schleswig-Holstein's population swelled from 1.5 Mio in 1939 to 2.5 in 1949 as it was a main point of entry for refugees from further east, especially East Prussia - and many locals resented that, thence the sudden interest.
There had been a separatist pro-Denish party in the Weimar years (called the SSV), but it never polled many votes even among Danish and Friesian voters.
Of course the whole 1947 crisis instead ended with a settlement that involved Danish language private schools with government funding, the SSW renouncing any separatist notions and being exempted from the 5% threshold, and probably a host of other provisions I am not aware of.

[The Dowager Mod]

I wrote a paper in college about the Kalmar Union.
I do know just a little about Denmark i think.

Sweet, then I guess that 1380 and 1397 should ring a bell. What kind of title do the english speaking give Margrethe I (she was never actually queen of Denmark, you know)?

Eric of pomerania her nephew was the real king but margaret was the one in charge until she died.

[CO-OWL]

We had a topic about the German state elections in September, so I thought I bring up the state election in Schleswig-Holstein on February 20.

Schleswig-Holstein has currently a SPD/Green coalition government under PM Heide Simonis, making Schlesw.-Holst. the only German state with a female head of government. The candidate of the CDU is Peter-Harry Carstensen, former agricultural expert in Edmund Stoiber´s unofficial "shadow cabinet" during the 2002 Bundestag elections.


The latest poll results are:

FGW (Feb. 11)
SPD 40%
CDU 37%
Greens 7%
FDP 7%
SSW 4%
NPD 3%
Others 2%

Infratest-dimap (Feb. 10)
SPD 41%
CDU 36%
Greens 7.5%
FDP 7%
SSW 3%
NPD 2.5%
Others 3%

Forsa (Feb. 8 )
SPD 40%
CDU 37%
Greens 7%
FDP 7%
SSW 3%
Others 6%

The SSW is the party of the Danish and Friesian minority and generally considered to be politically close to the SPD. As an ethnic minority party the SSW is excluded from the 5%-clause (the SSW hasn´t to receive at least 5% of the total vote to win seats).

First results: (Don't believe the polls! )

SPD 38.x%                 28 seats
CDU 40.x%                 29-30 seats
Greens 6.4-6.7%          4-5 seats
FDP 7%                         5 seats
SSW 3.4-3.8%               2 seats

Majority: 35 seats  ->
Either CDU/FDP will have a 1-seat majority or the SSW might play a crucial role (SSW supporting a SPD/Green minority government is not unlikely)

We'll have to wait for the final results, I guess...

[Umengus]

Schroeder down is a good new...

[Jake]

Looks good

[Middle-aged Europe]

Considering how close the election is, I´m still waiting for the first official results.

ARD/Infratest dimap (11:28 p.m.)
CDU: 40.2% / 30 seats
SPD: 38.7% / 29 seats
FDP: 6.6% / 4 seats
Greens: 6.2% / 4 seats
SSW: 3.6% / 2 seats
Others: 4.8% / 0 seats

ARD currently predicts a SPD/Green/SSW majority.


ZDF/FGW (9:58 p.m.)
CDU: 40.1% / 30 seats
SPD: 38.5% / 28 seats
FDP: 6.7% / 5 seats
Greens: 6.1% / 4 seats
SSW: 3.8% / 2 seats
Others: 4.8% / 0 seats

ZDF predicts a CDU/FDP majority.

[Middle-aged Europe]

I should have waited just a few minutes.

Preliminary official result:
CDU 40.2% / 30 seats
SPD 38.7% / 29 seats
FDP 6.6% / 4 seats
Greens 6.2% / 4 seats
SSW 3.6% / 2 seats
NPD 1.9% / 0 seats

SPD, Greens and SSW are holding a razor-thin majority.

[CO-OWL]

(Preliminary) official results:

CDU: 40.2% / 30 seats
SPD: 38.7% / 29 seats
FDP: 6.6% / 4 seats
Greens: 6.2% / 4 seats
SSW: 3.6% / 2 seats
Others: 4.8% / 0 seats

That means: Grand coalition or SPD/Green government supported by the SSW (unless the recount gives the FDP a 5th seat again ...)

EDIT: The FDP would need 743 additional votes, hence a 5th seat is nearly impossible

WAIT! Perhaps they can get help from the King County Democrats