Schleswig-Holstein state election

[Middle-aged Europe]

That means: Grand coalition or SPD/Green government supported by the SSW (unless the recount gives the FDP a 5th seat again ...)

Personally, I don´t believe in a Grand coalition. This would probably mean that Heide Simonis has to give up the office of the PM, because the CDU would be the largest party in government. Why would she do this? Or would the CDU really accept a grand coalition led by Simonis?

A SSW-backed SPD/Green coaliton is currently the most likely option... provided that they indeed won´t lose a seat with the recount.

[CO-OWL]

Personally, I don´t believe in a Grand coalition. This would probably mean that Heide Simonis has to give up the office of the PM, because the CDU would be the largest party in government. Why would she do this? Or would the CDU really accept a grand coalition led by Simonis?

A SSW-backed SPD/Green coaliton is currently the most likely option... provided that they indeed won´t lose a seat with the recount.

I agree, but it will be a coalition of the "losers". It will be interesting to see, how public opinion reacts to a minority government. At least SPD/Green/SSW is much better than the "Magdeburger Modell".
 
My favourite option would be a grand coalition with PHC replacing Heide Simonis as PM after two or three years.

[Notre Dame rules!]

I thought that Lewis had said that the CDU had fallen on hard times.  Doing as well as they did, especially in the North of Germany, doesn't sound too bad to me. 

Rock on CDU!

[Middle-aged Europe]

I thought that Lewis had said that the CDU had fallen on hard times.  Doing as well as they did, especially in the North of Germany, doesn't sound too bad to me. 

Rock on CDU!

Well, considering in what a bad shape the SPD was a year ago, the CDU has indeed fallen on "hard times". In May 2004 the CDU polled at 48% in Schleswig-Holstein, while the SPD was only at 33%. After the last year it´s already a "victory" for the SPD that they´re close behind the CDU now. It´s all relative, of course.

Btw, the next (and last this year) election will be held in North Rhine-Westphalia on May 22.  NRW is the most populous of the German states and ruled by the SPD since 1966. Polls show a close race similar to Schleswig-Holstein and the CDU seems to have a  chance to win an election there for the first time in nearly 40 years.

[minionofmidas]

Nah, he's right in that the CDU did a good bit better, and SPD and Greens worse, than the recent polls had predicted. I dunno what happened really. I hear that there was a TV debate a few days before the election and Carstensen performed better than Simonis...I hear there was a lot of rain (but turnout is only down minimally, so?)...or maybe the pollsters simply got it wrong.
Some notes:
Results by constituency show the Greens losing in the countryside and gaining in their urban strongholds.

CDU gains and SPD losses appear to be stronger both in the big cities and in the really rural areas, with the SPD vote holding up better in middling towns.

Although for most of the evening CDU and FDP had those 35 seats, they never were projected to have more votes than SPD+Greens+SSW. Now...apart from the fact that I never heard the fact mentioned on TV...the same thing almost happened in Saxony, too, a few months ago. CDU+FDP would have almost won a majority of the seats with fewer votes than SPD+PDS+NPD+Greens (not that those would have wanted to govern together, thanggod).

I sat around at my mom's place until half past eleven, when only two constituency results were outstanding and the TV channels were predicting a CDU/FDP win. I got home, turned on the radio, and heard the official result coming through. I had been a little shocked when I'd seen that self-same result projected at 6, but now I punched my fist in the air.

This isn't the first time we had to wait this long for official Schleswig-Holstein results...in 1992, the Greens failed to meet the 5% threshold by 57 votes, and the SPD maintained its majority of seats as a result.

[AuH2O]

Who was the Brit that said only 3 people ever understood the Schleswih-Holstein question; one died, one was a professor that went crazy, and then the Brit himself, but he forgot.

[minionofmidas]

Already mentioned in this thread.

[Jens]

Nah, he's right in that the CDU did a good bit better, and SPD and Greens worse, than the recent polls had predicted. I dunno what happened really. I hear that there was a TV debate a few days before the election and Carstensen performed better than Simonis...I hear there was a lot of rain (but turnout is only down minimally, so?)...or maybe the pollsters simply got it wrong.
Some notes:
Results by constituency show the Greens losing in the countryside and gaining in their urban strongholds.

CDU gains and SPD losses appear to be stronger both in the big cities and in the really rural areas, with the SPD vote holding up better in middling towns.

Although for most of the evening CDU and FDP had those 35 seats, they never were projected to have more votes than SPD+Greens+SSW. Now...apart from the fact that I never heard the fact mentioned on TV...the same thing almost happened in Saxony, too, a few months ago. CDU+FDP would have almost won a majority of the seats with fewer votes than SPD+PDS+NPD+Greens (not that those would have wanted to govern together, thanggod).

I sat around at my mom's place until half past eleven, when only two constituency results were outstanding and the TV channels were predicting a CDU/FDP win. I got home, turned on the radio, and heard the official result coming through. I had been a little shocked when I'd seen that self-same result projected at 6, but now I punched my fist in the air.

This isn't the first time we had to wait this long for official Schleswig-Holstein results...in 1992, the Greens failed to meet the 5% threshold by 57 votes, and the SPD maintained its majority of seats as a result.

That 5% threshold sometimes gives some pretty weird results, almost as twisted as FPTP
Besides that SSV lost a mandate Didn't see that comming. It looks like SSV will support a SPD-Grüne government, but some people are claiming that the Germans (funny how all SSV-voters suddenly became Danes/not-Germans) will not accept a minority government a la the Danish system. Anyway SSV is in the position that has been the party goal the last decade - let's see how Anke Spoorendonk handles that

[minionofmidas]

Well, there was a pre-election poll of what people thought should happen in exactly the situation that has arisen.
52% said a Grand Coalition,
42% said red-green tolerated by SSW.

Safe to say that 80%+ of CDU supporters went with option one, so obviously the majority of SPD voters are comfy with a minority.

[Jens]

Well, there was a pre-election poll of what people thought should happen in exactly the situation that has arisen.
52% said a Grand Coalition,
42% said red-green tolerated by SSW.

Safe to say that 80%+ of CDU supporters went with option one, so obviously the majority of SPD voters are comfy with a minority.

'
quelle surprise. Take a look at SSV's forum. It's filled with pleas not to support the current government from people who probably would call them selfs "conserned citizens of S-H" and of cause the the occational slightly hidden threat that if SSV supports the government people will turn against the Danes in Slesvig

[minionofmidas]

This in a state where the most popular sports team's supporters wave the Danebrog a lot.
(SG Flensburg-Handewitt. A handball club, not football. Schleswig-Holsteiners, outside the Hamburg suburbs, are weird that way...one of the very few areas in Europe where Football isn't the no. one spectator sport.)

[Notre Dame rules!]

Does it appear that the SPD's falling polling numbers came as a result of rising unemployment, or was unemployment not much of a factor in the S-H election?  Also, what is the unemployment rate in NR-W?

[AuH2O]

Already mentioned in this thread.

It occured to me as a possibility, but better to be lazy.

And I just remembered it was Lord Palmerston

[Middle-aged Europe]

Yeah, I noticed too that the CDU seems to be really pissed off by the SSW and I can´t say that I really like the discussion they´re sparking now.

On election night CDU members were interviewed who said things like "We are living in Germany and not in Denmark!". A few leading CDU representatives basically said the same, only in a more subtle manner.

Stop the Dane-bashing, which becomes so surprisingly popular now, and get over the fact that you "lost" an election for a change. What about winning a few seats more next time instead of blaming the Danes? Well, at least Edmund Stoiber blamed the FDP yesterday.

Does it appear that the SPD's falling polling numbers came as a result of rising unemployment, or was unemployment not much of a factor in the S-H election?  Also, what is the unemployment rate in NR-W?

According to the post-election polls the unemployment  played indeed a role in the unexpected weak results of the SPD. As far as I know the unemployment rate in NRW is lower than in Schleswig-Holwstein, but not much though.

Ironically, the Schleswig-Holstein election won´t create any momentum for neither party, because there are no real winners. The CDU surprisingly became the strongest party, but failed to take over the government, while the SPD will remain in power after heavy losses in the election.

[minionofmidas]

Yeah, Carstensen seems to be suffering from Stoiber Syndrome right now.
Can't get over the fact that they came so close, yet are so far from power.
Really, Stoiber makes Gore look very balanced indeed. What's Dan Mongiardo doing these days?

[minionofmidas]

Ah, and I keep forgetting posting that...
Germany's Dixsville Notch.
Hallig Gröde, Germany's smallest municipality with 12 inhabitants, all of them over 18, is a small island off the West coast of Schleswig-Holstein. Obviously, they are always the first to report results, at ca. 5 minutes past 6 pm.
They had ...interesting...results:
2000
SPD 4 votes
SSW 3 votes
CDU 2 votes
FDP 2 votes
Greens 1 vote
2005
SPD 10 votes
CDU 2 votes.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Really, Stoiber makes Gore look very balanced indeed. What's Dan Mongiardo doing these days?

From what I understand he's hoping that Hal Rogers retires in 2006.

[CO-OWL]

Does it appear that the SPD's falling polling numbers came as a result of rising unemployment, or was unemployment not much of a factor in the S-H election?  Also, what is the unemployment rate in NR-W?

Average unemployment rate in 2004:

NRW 10,2% (2nd-highest)
SH      9,8%  (3rd-highest)

Bremen (highest in Western Germany) 13,3%
Baden-Württemberg (lowest ...)             6,2%


With HartzIV changing the definition of "unemployed":
January 2005 (seasonal effects!)

NRW      11,2%
SH         12,7%
Bremen 17,9%
BW          6,9%

[Notre Dame rules!]

I recently heard that Schroeder said that he has done all he can about the unemployment situation.  If he did in fact say something to that effect, then the CDU/CSU can begin beating him about the head with such a stupid remark.

By European standards, the BW numbers aren't too bad, but the rest are terrible. 

Schroeder could find himself in real trouble, and I can't say that wouldn't make my day.   

[jimrtex]

How is the status of the SSW legally defined?  That is, could any party declare itself to be a minority party and not be be subject to the threshold, or are there other tests applied?

Can voters vote for any party?  Do the CDU or SPD appeal for Danish support, and how do they do so?

[Jens]

How is the status of the SSW legally defined?  That is, could any party declare itself to be a minority party and not be be subject to the threshold, or are there other tests applied?

Can voters vote for any party?  Do the CDU or SPD appeal for Danish support, and how do they do so?

Voters can vote for any party. SSV's main group is the Danish and Frisian minorities but SSV also gets German votes. The SSV exeption from the threshold was part of an agreement between Denmark and BRD in the early fifthies where the Danish minority in South Schleswig and the German minority in North Schleswig/Sonderjutland got special priviliges

[minionofmidas]

Voters can vote for any party. SSV's main group is the Danish and Frisian minorities but SSV also gets German votes. The SSV exeption from the threshold was part of an agreement between Denmark and BRD in the early fifthies where the Danish minority in South Schleswig and the German minority in North Schleswig/Sonderjutland got special priviliges

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What became of that btw?

[Jens]

What became of that btw?

They still got them, but since we don't have a threshold on local level there wasn't any need for special rules on that one. (SSV still needs to get enough votes to win one seat. They are not garanteed a seat in the S-H parliament). Slesvigske Parti lost their mandate in the Diet in 1964 and hasn't been able to get enough votes since then (I think that they are excepted from the 2% threshold, but I'm not sure).
Today the special rights are German schools, kindergardens ect.
The newspaper Der Nordschleswiger is the paper for the German minority

[jimrtex]

How is the status of the SSW legally defined?  That is, could any party declare itself to be a minority party and not be be subject to the threshold, or are there other tests applied?

Can voters vote for any party?  Do the CDU or SPD appeal for Danish support, and how do they do so?

Voters can vote for any party. SSV's main group is the Danish and Frisian minorities but SSV also gets German votes. The SSV exeption from the threshold was part of an agreement between Denmark and BRD in the early fifthies where the Danish minority in South Schleswig and the German minority in North Schleswig/Sonderjutland got special priviliges

Is the exemption for the SSV spelled out for that particular party, or could any party declare that they target Danish and/or Frisian minorities.  For example, could a party adopt the platform of the CDU or SPD, but with an emphasis on minority advocacy, name itself with the Danish equivalent of the German party name and contest elections.  Its single member could always sit with its sister party.

Does the SSV contest elections for the German Parliament?

[Middle-aged Europe]

Is the exemption for the SSV spelled out for that particular party, or could any party declare that they target Danish and/or Frisian minorities.  For example, could a party adopt the platform of the CDU or SPD, but with an emphasis on minority advocacy, name itself with the Danish equivalent of the German party name and contest elections.  Its single member could always sit with its sister party.

Indeed a good question. I just took a look at the electoral law of Schleswig-Holstein. In article 3, section 1 it is stated that "parties of the danish minority" are excluded from the 5%-clause. The SSW is not specifically mentioned. But it´s noteworthy that the plural is used ("parties" instead of "THE party of the danish minority").

I´m not totally sure about this, but I would say that in the case that another danish party is founded, it´s up to the election supervisor of the state to decide. If he or she refuses to grant the party this special status it would probably end up before the court.

Ironically, I met CDU members who already claim that the SSW is just a danish-speaking "spin-off" of the SPD.

Does the SSV contest elections for the German Parliament?

Not since 1961, I think.

They had a single MP in the first German Bundestag (1949-1953). But the electoral law was a bit different back then and somewhat favored regional parties.