A 10 point swing
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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election What-ifs? (Moderator: Dereich)
  A 10 point swing
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Author Topic: A 10 point swing  (Read 4131 times)
JerryArkansas
jerryarkansas
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« on: December 26, 2012, 10:54:53 PM »
« edited: December 30, 2012, 12:41:28 AM by jerryarkansas »

This is based on this thread.  I will take requests on elections if you want.  I will be doing both canidates in the election.

2012
a 5 point swing to Romney

Romney 348
Obama 190


a five point swing to Obama

Obama 385
Romney 153
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JerryArkansas
jerryarkansas
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« Reply #1 on: December 26, 2012, 11:02:53 PM »
« Edited: December 26, 2012, 11:19:21 PM by jerryarkansas »

2008

Five Point swing to McCain

McCain 280
Obama 258

Five Point swing to Obama

Obama 418
McCain 120
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JerryArkansas
jerryarkansas
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« Reply #2 on: December 26, 2012, 11:09:31 PM »
« Edited: December 26, 2012, 11:22:00 PM by jerryarkansas »

2004

Five Point swing to Bush

Bush 447
Kerry 91

Five Point swing to Kerry

Kerry 355
Bush 183
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Supersonic
SupersonicVenue
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« Reply #3 on: December 26, 2012, 11:13:34 PM »

Bush taking California? Wow.
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JerryArkansas
jerryarkansas
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« Reply #4 on: December 26, 2012, 11:14:39 PM »

Yes, he lost it by 9 points, so he would win it with the swing.
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JerryArkansas
jerryarkansas
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« Reply #5 on: December 26, 2012, 11:36:50 PM »

2000

Five point swing to Bush

Bush 370
Gore 168

Five point swing to Gore

Gore 392
Bush 146
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Sec. of State Superique
Superique
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« Reply #6 on: December 27, 2012, 12:06:31 PM »

2000

Five point swing to Bush

Bush 370
Gore 168

Five point swing to Gore

Gore 392
Bush 146

The second, would be a Clintonian Victory =)
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JerryArkansas
jerryarkansas
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« Reply #7 on: December 27, 2012, 12:35:28 PM »
« Edited: December 28, 2012, 01:07:12 PM by jerryarkansas »

1996
Five point swing to Clinton

Clinton 512
Dole 26
Perot 0

Five point swing to Dole

Clinton 252
Dole 286
Perot 0

 
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JerryArkansas
jerryarkansas
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« Reply #8 on: December 27, 2012, 05:44:14 PM »

1992

Five Point swing to Clinton from bush

Clinton 521
Bush 17
Perot 0

Five point swing to bush from Clinton

Bush 350
Clinton 188
Perot 0

Five point swing to Perot from Clinton and Bush

Clinton 366
Bush 165
Perot 7

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JerryArkansas
jerryarkansas
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« Reply #9 on: December 27, 2012, 07:44:38 PM »

1988

Five point swing to Bush

Bush 523
Dukakis 15

Five point swing to Dukakis

Bush 258
Dukakis 280
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JerryArkansas
jerryarkansas
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« Reply #10 on: December 27, 2012, 07:50:24 PM »

1984

Five point swing to Mondale

Mondale 120
Reagan 418

Five point swing to Reagan

Reagan 535
Mondale 3

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Enderman
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« Reply #11 on: December 27, 2012, 08:03:49 PM »

I have a question, when you do a list of alternate presidents in color, how do you do it? (Im a newbie...) Great maps btw.
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JerryArkansas
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« Reply #12 on: December 28, 2012, 12:49:17 PM »

1980
 
Five point swing to Reagan

Reagan 519
Carter 19

Five point swing to Carter

Carter 297
Reagan 241
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Jerseyrules
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« Reply #13 on: December 28, 2012, 01:01:56 PM »

Iowa in 1988 is shocking.
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sentinel
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« Reply #14 on: December 28, 2012, 02:48:36 PM »

1964:

Historical:



Johnson: 486
Goldwater: 52

5 Point Swing to Johnson:



Johnson: 491
Goldwater: 47



Johnson: 468
Goldwater: 70
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sentinel
sirnick
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« Reply #15 on: December 28, 2012, 03:11:21 PM »

1960:

Historical:



Kennedy: 309
Nixon: 220
Byrd: 8

5 Point Swing to Nixon:



Nixon: 398
Kennedy: 131
Byrd: 8

5 point swing to Kennedy



Kennedy: 379
Nixon: 150

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badgate
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« Reply #16 on: December 28, 2012, 04:08:16 PM »

Thanks for doing 1980. I've been looking forward to seeing if Carter would have won.
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sentinel
sirnick
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« Reply #17 on: December 28, 2012, 04:17:08 PM »

Your 5 point swing to Mitt Romney is dead wrong if you're using real state by state results.
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JerryArkansas
jerryarkansas
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« Reply #18 on: December 28, 2012, 04:22:06 PM »

Your 5 point swing to Mitt Romney is dead wrong if you're using real state by state results.

what do you mean by that
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Enderman
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« Reply #19 on: December 28, 2012, 04:24:58 PM »

Where's 1968-1976!?!?
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JerryArkansas
jerryarkansas
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« Reply #20 on: December 28, 2012, 04:26:24 PM »


i have not done them yet.  1964 and 1960 were not done by me.  I should have them by tonight
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sentinel
sirnick
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« Reply #21 on: December 28, 2012, 05:17:56 PM »

Your 5 point swing to Mitt Romney is dead wrong if you're using real state by state results.

what do you mean by that

4 states were within 5 points. Virginia, Florida, Ohio and North Carolina. Not the numerous ones you put.
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JerryArkansas
jerryarkansas
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« Reply #22 on: December 28, 2012, 05:19:41 PM »

Your 5 point swing to Mitt Romney is dead wrong if you're using real state by state results.

what do you mean by that

4 states were within 5 points. Virginia, Florida, Ohio and North Carolina. Not the numerous ones you put.

I think you misunderstood what a 5 point swing was.  I am taking 5 points from obama and giving that five points to Romney so actually it would be 10 point swing
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sentinel
sirnick
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« Reply #23 on: December 29, 2012, 02:59:53 AM »

Your 5 point swing to Mitt Romney is dead wrong if you're using real state by state results.

what do you mean by that

4 states were within 5 points. Virginia, Florida, Ohio and North Carolina. Not the numerous ones you put.

I think you misunderstood what a 5 point swing was.  I am taking 5 points from obama and giving that five points to Romney so actually it would be 10 point swing

No...

For example

If historical results are say

Ohio: Obama - 57, Romney - 43

A five point swing to Romney would be...

Ohio: Obama - 52, Romney - 48

You can't say "its a 5 point swing" and then go "its really a 10 point swing" Its math, its either 5 points or 10.
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Jerseyrules
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« Reply #24 on: December 29, 2012, 04:41:40 PM »

Your 5 point swing to Mitt Romney is dead wrong if you're using real state by state results.

what do you mean by that

4 states were within 5 points. Virginia, Florida, Ohio and North Carolina. Not the numerous ones you put.

I think you misunderstood what a 5 point swing was.  I am taking 5 points from obama and giving that five points to Romney so actually it would be 10 point swing

No...

For example

If historical results are say

Ohio: Obama - 57, Romney - 43

A five point swing to Romney would be...

Ohio: Obama - 52, Romney - 48

You can't say "its a 5 point swing" and then go "its really a 10 point swing" Its math, its either 5 points or 10.

I think he means 5 point swing in that 5% PV goes to Romney
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