2013 Elections in Canada

[RogueBeaver]

EKOS-ON: 33 OLP, 29 PC, 26 NDP.

http://www.ipolitics.ca/2013/02/15/wynnes-win-breaths-new-life-into-ontario-grits-poll/

[DC Al Fine]

EKOS-ON: 33 OLP, 29 PC, 26 NDP.

http://www.ipolitics.ca/2013/02/15/wynnes-win-breaths-new-life-into-ontario-grits-poll/

That's not much of a honeymoon bump.

[Hatman 🍁]

EKOS-ON: 33 OLP, 29 PC, 26 NDP.

http://www.ipolitics.ca/2013/02/15/wynnes-win-breaths-new-life-into-ontario-grits-poll/

That's not much of a honeymoon bump.

I'd say going from 3rd to 1st is quite a bump, if not numerically.

[adma]

And the PCs sinking below 30% is quite a slump.

[King of Kensington]

It is.  29% is pretty much rock bottom support for the PCs.

[RogueBeaver]

'Tis EKOS. But yeah, they should be doing better- again we come back to the urban problem.

[DC Al Fine]

'Tis EKOS. But yeah, they should be doing better- again we come back to the urban problem.

I remember after the 2011 election, Graves was saying "It's surprising that we have undershot Tory support" as if they hadn't undershot the Tories in every election since the merger

[DL]

They didn't. In the 2008 election Ekos final poll projected CPC support almost exactly where it was when the votes were counted. In 2004 and 2006 they actually OVER estimated Conservative support.

[adma]

What intrigues me is if Hudak's suffering the inverse of what used to be the "female leadership" problem--that is, just as female party leaders used to be framed as shrill or ineffectual losing propositions, Hudak, caught btw/ a pair of reasonably dynamic female leaders, is looking weaselly and wan, and even less like an appetizing premier-in-waiting than he did vs McGuinty...

[Hatman 🍁]

They didn't. In the 2008 election Ekos final poll projected CPC support almost exactly where it was when the votes were counted. In 2004 and 2006 they actually OVER estimated Conservative support.

Everyone overstated Tory support in 2004. There is a poster in our office bragging about how well we (EKOS) did in that election. Unfortunately we haven't been the best poster recently, but there are much worse polling firms out there.

[DC Al Fine]

They didn't. In the 2008 election Ekos final poll projected CPC support almost exactly where it was when the votes were counted. In 2004 and 2006 they actually OVER estimated Conservative support.

Everyone overstated Tory support in 2004. There is a poster in our office bragging about how well we (EKOS) did in that election. Unfortunately we haven't been the best poster recently, but there are much worse polling firms out there.

COMPASS comes to mind?

[RogueBeaver]

Kinsella: expect Wynne's government to fall on its budget sword in March.

http://warrenkinsella.com/2013/02/overheard-family-day-musings/

[DL]

Kinsella: expect Wynne's government to fall on its budget sword in March.

http://warrenkinsella.com/2013/02/overheard-family-day-musings/

Kinsella has become the Dick Morris of Canada. He has a knack for being dead wrong about almost everything. He is completely shut out of the corridors of power at every level and you can be sure that his latest fanciful theories are based on nothing.

[RogueBeaver]

Doesn't seem implausible to me: NDP can't vote for Grit budgets forever. However I'd think fall or perhaps early next year more likely.

[DL]

Doesn't seem implausible to me: NDP can't vote for Grit budgets forever. However I'd think fall or perhaps early next year more likely.

The ONDP naturally cannot vote for Grit budgets "forever" - so far they have voted for exactly ONE - one year ago. But I suspect that unless Kathleen Wynne inserts some sort of a poison pill in the budget because she actually wants to engineer her own defeat - and I doubt that - the budget will probably be something the NDP can at least tolerate. No one wants an election now, all the parties are broke. If you're the NDP why not abstain, concentrate on winning the Windsor-Tecumseth and London West byelections and then look to an election another year down the road?

[RogueBeaver]

No kidding: BC budget is a campaign document. Despite my distaste, to say the least, for the Dixppers, I won't be unhappy to see the back of Christy Clark. Will probably take 2 cycles minimum for the BCLP to get another shot.

http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2013/02/18/brian-hutchinson-tuesdays-b-c-budget-more-a-campaign-ad-than-anything-else/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

[lilTommy]

Doesn't seem implausible to me: NDP can't vote for Grit budgets forever. However I'd think fall or perhaps early next year more likely.

The ONDP naturally cannot vote for Grit budgets "forever" - so far they have voted for exactly ONE - one year ago. But I suspect that unless Kathleen Wynne inserts some sort of a poison pill in the budget because she actually wants to engineer her own defeat - and I doubt that - the budget will probably be something the NDP can at least tolerate. No one wants an election now, all the parties are broke. If you're the NDP why not abstain, concentrate on winning the Windsor-Tecumseth and London West byelections and then look to an election another year down the road?

I might be wrong, but the ONDP from my memory abstained at the last budget. So in fact they haven't yet voted in support of an OLP budget. I remember cause an OLP friend of mine made a big stink about how they (OLP) gave the ONDP so many concessions then didn't vote for it.

[RogueBeaver]

Breaking: BC Cabinet expected to vote non-confidence in Clark, some Grits openly calling for her resignation. Just like Dief 50 years ago.

[RogueBeaver]

BC will have one leaders debate, on the 29th. Writ will be dropped on Tuesday.

http://www.vancouversun.com/news/bc-election/Date%2Bprovincial%2Belection%2Bleadership%2Bdebate/8228570/story.html

[RogueBeaver]

Bumping: BC writ drops in a few hours.

[Krago]

Nova Scotia will probably be going to the polls this fall to pass judgement on their rookie NDP government.  There will be one fewer seat in the Legislature after a contentious redistribution process, where the government overruled the initial report of the independent electoral boundaries commission.

Here's a map of the Metro Halifax area that shows the results of the 2009 provincial election by polling division overlaid by the new electoral district boundaries.

[Hatman 🍁]

Nova Scotia will probably be going to the polls this fall to pass judgement on their rookie NDP government.  There will be one fewer seat in the Legislature after a contentious redistribution process, where the government overruled the initial report of the independent electoral boundaries commission.

Here's a map of the Metro Halifax area that shows the results of the 2009 provincial election by polling division overlaid by the new electoral district boundaries.

All that orange is quite beautiful. I suppose this map will look quite different after the election- but not as bad as other parts of the province.

[DL]

Nova Scotia will probably be going to the polls this fall to pass judgement on their rookie NDP government.  There will be one fewer seat in the Legislature after a contentious redistribution process, where the government overruled the initial report of the independent electoral boundaries commission.

Here's a map of the Metro Halifax area that shows the results of the 2009 provincial election by polling division overlaid by the new electoral district boundaries.

All that orange is quite beautiful. I suppose this map will look quite different after the election- but not as bad as other parts of the province.

Has anyone calculated what the seat distribution would have been in Nova Scotia 2009 if it had been fought on these new boundaries?

[Hatman 🍁]

Nova Scotia will probably be going to the polls this fall to pass judgement on their rookie NDP government.  There will be one fewer seat in the Legislature after a contentious redistribution process, where the government overruled the initial report of the independent electoral boundaries commission.

Here's a map of the Metro Halifax area that shows the results of the 2009 provincial election by polling division overlaid by the new electoral district boundaries.

All that orange is quite beautiful. I suppose this map will look quite different after the election- but not as bad as other parts of the province.

Has anyone calculated what the seat distribution would have been in Nova Scotia 2009 if it had been fought on these new boundaries?

I think Elections Nova Scotia did this.

[DC Al Fine]

Nova Scotia will probably be going to the polls this fall to pass judgement on their rookie NDP government.  There will be one fewer seat in the Legislature after a contentious redistribution process, where the government overruled the initial report of the independent electoral boundaries commission.

Here's a map of the Metro Halifax area that shows the results of the 2009 provincial election by polling division overlaid by the new electoral district boundaries.

All that orange is quite beautiful. I suppose this map will look quite different after the election- but not as bad as other parts of the province.

Has anyone calculated what the seat distribution would have been in Nova Scotia 2009 if it had been fought on these new boundaries?

I think Elections Nova Scotia did this.

Elections NS redid their site last month and the notional results were taken down in the shuffle

Only thing that really changed was that the Inverness by-election would have been won by the Liberals instead of the Tories had it taken place with the new ridings.