2013 Elections in Canada

[RogueBeaver]

Based on the German threads.

The big ones this year are BC and Nova Scotia. It is also widely expected that Ontario will go to the polls this summer once the Liberals elect their next premier.

BC: On or before May 14.

Latest poll (Ipsos-Reid, Nov. 26-30): NDP 48, Liberal 35, Tory 9, Green 7.

NS: TBD

Latest poll (CRA, Nov. 30): Liberal 41, NDP 29, PC 27.

ON: TBD


Latest poll (Forum Research, Dec. 17): PC 33, NDP 31, Liberal 27.

[DL]

There is also a very real possibility of another election in Quebec in 2013

[Holmes]

Liberals will win in Nova Scotia (thanks Dexter) and it will be their only victory in a bleak year, and in many years to come. Otherwise, battleground Ontario.

[RogueBeaver]

I like Dexter, will be a bit sad to see him go but no problem for me having a Liberal takeover in NS. Ontario is what really worries me. Though given that Pupatello had a few gaffes recently with the "marvelous" Grit healthcare record and importance of Grit patronage... I'd be a bit more worried about the NDP. If it becomes a personality contest then advantage Horwath.

[Hatman 🍁]

I like Dexter too,  it's sad that Nova Scotians hate him so much.

[Talleyrand]

Does anyone think the Liberals could hold on or at least remain a strong minority after the B.C. election? I knew they were head for a massacre just a few months back, so have things changed at all since then?

[RogueBeaver]

No, still a strong majority for the NDP. As much as I dislike Dix I certainly won't be shedding any tears over Clark. Ontario will be the interesting one to watch if it happens. Depends who wins the OLP leadership of course- and no one has name recognition above 40% (closest is Kennedy, who won't win, at 38%). Maybe Glen Murray as a compromise candidate if it stalls between leftie Wynne and rightie Pupatello. However smart money would be on Pupatello.

[DL]

I like Dexter too,  it's sad that Nova Scotians hate him so much.

Its not at all clear to me why Dexter is unpopular in NS. He seems like a decent avuncular guy and I don't see any major scandals or miscues on his part...Nova Scotia is a poor province with a difficult fiscal situation - but i don't see how Dexter isn't a styep in the rioght direction - esp. after the absurd reign of Rodnery McDonald.

[RogueBeaver]

Paging Al Fine... and I agree with you that McDonald was a clown.

[Talleyrand]

No, still a strong majority for the NDP. As much as I dislike Dix I certainly won't be shedding any tears over Clark. Ontario will be the interesting one to watch if it happens. Depends who wins the OLP leadership of course- and no one has name recognition above 40% (closest is Kennedy, who won't win, at 38%). Maybe Glen Murray as a compromise candidate if it stalls between leftie Wynne and rightie Pupatello. However smart money would be on Pupatello.

Dix doesn't seem particularly impressive to me either. He just appears to be some hack who became party leader based on his prior service to the party, but I could be wrong.

Is Clark basically seen as a panderer, Julia Gillard-style?

[RogueBeaver]

Yeah, Clark's a panderer and shameless opportunist. She'll say whatever sounds like a vote-catcher and claims the outsider mantle despite being the incumbent and having been in government for most of her career. Not of all this was her own doing- Campbell nuked them with the HST train wreck, then the Tory split, a divisive leadership race, in government for 11 years... but she still gets a good of blame. BC dynasties always get vaporized: Social Credit and the NDP ended up like this in their day too. Which means Gateway is dead and buried, I don't know if Dix would be open to an alternate route.

[Hatman 🍁]

I like Dexter too,  it's sad that Nova Scotians hate him so much.

Its not at all clear to me why Dexter is unpopular in NS. He seems like a decent avuncular guy and I don't see any major scandals or miscues on his part...Nova Scotia is a poor province with a difficult fiscal situation - but i don't see how Dexter isn't a styep in the rioght direction - esp. after the absurd reign of Rodnery McDonald.

Dexter has had to make some difficult unpopular decisions.

[Foucaulf]

Does anyone think the Liberals could hold on or at least remain a strong minority after the B.C. election? I knew they were head for a massacre just a few months back, so have things changed at all since then?

A massacre isn't on the books anymore, since the BC Conservatives really wilted under the spotlight during fall (e.g. some nasty party infighting). We're not looking at a 2001, but instead at a 1991 or a 1972, taking into account conservative-minded people who skip out on the election altogether.

A lot of Liberal MLAs, however, have already jumped ship. Campbell's influence on the Liberals will be gone after the next election, and the party will have to start anew. Not sure if business interests will throw their support behind another party, either.

Dix doesn't seem particularly impressive to me either. He just appears to be some hack who became party leader based on his prior service to the party, but I could be wrong.

The key to Dix's victory back in 2011 is South Asian support. He had some very good connections with the Punjabi community, and got endorsements from the Surrey MLAs in the process. Winning by around a 4% margin, it's clear that connection gave him the edge. The favourite going in the convention was former minister Mike Farnworth, who ran on an agrarian platform and whose supposed "moderation" got him the plaudits of the party elite. Weren't very useful.

I saw Dix as the better candidate back in those days. Since then he's been fairly competent, cryptic about concrete policies as well. It's not hard to be liked when you're the opposition to a government whose every policy receives ire and scorn. He nonetheless does a lot of interest group outreach, and held up the NDP caucus a hell of a lot better than Clark is doing. He has become more visible than the premier herself!

[DC Al Fine]

I like Dexter too,  it's sad that Nova Scotians hate him so much.

Its not at all clear to me why Dexter is unpopular in NS. He seems like a decent avuncular guy and I don't see any major scandals or miscues on his part...Nova Scotia is a poor province with a difficult fiscal situation - but i don't see how Dexter isn't a styep in the rioght direction - esp. after the absurd reign of Rodnery McDonald.

Dexter has had to make some difficult unpopular decisions.

I tend to agree here even though I'm a PC voter. There's a fairly large chunk of left leaning voters who aren't attached to either left of centre party. When one of those parties makes cuts, they switch to the other one. That's why the NDP picked up 6 seats in NS in 1997 and why the Liberals are doing so well now.

[adma]

I tend to agree here even though I'm a PC voter. There's a fairly large chunk of left leaning voters who aren't attached to either left of centre party. When one of those parties makes cuts, they switch to the other one. That's why the NDP picked up 6 seats in NS in 1997 and why the Liberals are doing so well now.

And in terms of the Maritimes, even the PCs can play something of a "left of centre" valid-voting-option game.

[Hatman 🍁]

Well, the other two parties have shared power over the years and have avoided making the necessary unpopular decisions, and now the NDP has to swoop in and fix things, especially if they want to avoid being considered fiscally reckless (which any NDP government tries to over compensate for).

[RogueBeaver]

According to the Star, Wynne narrowly leads Pupatello 1533-1281. Hoping this holds.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1311972--kathleen-wynne-leads-liberal-leadership-race
 

[Smid]

Nova Scotia
As always, bigger versions in the Gallery. Also a couple of party support and turnout maps in the Gallery, that I won't post here, as they're using the old colour scheme.

First, here's a key map - using Dave's Redistricting App colour scheme.

Nova Scotia Provincial Ridings - Key Map



2009 Nova Scotia Election Results



2006 Nova Scotia Election Results



2009 Nova Scotia Election Results - PC Swing from 2006



2009 Nova Scotia Election Results - Liberal Swing from 2006



2009 Nova Scotia Election Results - NDP Swing from 2006

[Hatman 🍁]

WTF Annapolis Valley?

[Smid]

Have you spotted a mistake?

[Hatman 🍁]

Have you spotted a mistake?

No, just wondering what happened to the NDP vote there. The one in Dartmouth can be explained (popular local councillor running for the Libs)

[RogueBeaver]

Any predictions as to who Ontario's next premier will be? I don't have any idea who'll ally with whom on the floor... except that Kennedy will a) probably screw himself again b) not send his delegates to Pupatello.

Ian Macdonald on the troika, put this here for his take on the provincials.

http://www.ottawacitizen.com/opinion/Liberals+three+chances+start+over/7791913/story.html

The scheming has begun.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1312268--ontario-liberal-leadership-candidates-in-secret-one-on-one-talks

[Smid]

Have you spotted a mistake?

No, just wondering what happened to the NDP vote there. The one in Dartmouth can be explained (popular local councillor running for the Libs)

The PC vote also declined there, with the (main?) beneficiary being the Liberals. Perhaps there had been a swing against the Liberals there in the previous election, and it was their voters returning?

[adma]

Have you spotted a mistake?

No, just wondering what happened to the NDP vote there. The one in Dartmouth can be explained (popular local councillor running for the Libs)

What happened?  Home turf for the provincial Lib leader.

[DC Al Fine]

Have you spotted a mistake?

No, just wondering what happened to the NDP vote there. The one in Dartmouth can be explained (popular local councillor running for the Libs)

What happened?  Home turf for the provincial Lib leader.

Hatman, NS politics are notoriously "person over party". The Liberal leader is in the valley and the other Liberal MLA's in the area are personally popular so it's certainly possible for them to have gained there in 09.