County Map notes

[Filuwaúrdjan]

First off, to make the maps look saner... I'm going to shade the Presidential one. Some general notes...

1. Kemperor is going to do extremely well in affluent suburban areas
2. Lewis is going to do well in socially liberal areas (inc. college towns etc) and Native American/Indian areas.
3. I'm going to do well in working class areas in general and mining areas in particular.

I'd like some comments on how different demographic groups will/would vote please.
I'll do a lot more (inc. state by state previews) tomorrow... in the meanwhile I'd like your opinions on how the following would vote:

1. Blacks
2. Mormons

I'm stuck wi' both...

[KEmperor]

I am a friend of the black man....and especially women. 

[Akno21]

Black vote- 50% Al, 40% Lewis, 10% Kemperor. They aren't that socially liberal, which would help you.

Mormons- 75% Al, 5% Lewis, 5% Kemperor, large percentage stay home.

[Redefeatbush04]

Black vote- 50% Al, 40% Lewis, 10% Kemperor. They aren't that socially liberal, which would help you.

Mormons- 75% Al, 5% Lewis, 5% Kemperor, large percentage stay home.

I disagree

Black vote -   45% Al 40% Lewis  15% Kemperor
Mormon - 50% Kemperor   45% Al    5% Lewis

[Alcon]

Redefeat's sounds more realistic.

Although Lewis probably will do well in the Native American vote, it is worth considering, I suppose, that I am registered in a heavily Native American county in South Dakota, which would not hurt in the local Native American vote.

[12th Doctor]

Al, you should do much better than your national average among Hispanics.

Though Lewis will probably get a large base of support, he would only acctually win a few counties.  Like you said, mostly affluent college towns.  Kemps largest base of support will be in the Northeast, Pacific West and a couple of Southern states like Virginia, Florida and Texas.  Basically, Kemp wins by deploying what I call in P4E the "Five points stratey" (that is when I play a Dem).  Campaign hard in California, Northeast, Virginia, Florida and Colorado/NM/Arizona/NV.

However, Kemp is likely to get above 60% so that will mess with the map quite a bit.  As I said, though, Kemp's base of domination should be the Northeast.  You would likely play well in West Virginia, Georgia, Ohio and Arkansas.  Lewis would win in the Upper-Midwest (excluding Michigan) and maybe take Washington state.

[Akno21]

Black vote- 50% Al, 40% Lewis, 10% Kemperor. They aren't that socially liberal, which would help you.

Mormons- 75% Al, 5% Lewis, 5% Kemperor, large percentage stay home.

I disagree

Black vote -   45% Al 40% Lewis  15% Kemperor
Mormon - 50% Kemperor   45% Al    5% Lewis

Isn't Kemperor athiest?

[Redefeatbush04]

Black vote- 50% Al, 40% Lewis, 10% Kemperor. They aren't that socially liberal, which would help you.

Mormons- 75% Al, 5% Lewis, 5% Kemperor, large percentage stay home.

I disagree

Black vote -   45% Al 40% Lewis  15% Kemperor
Mormon - 50% Kemperor   45% Al    5% Lewis

Isn't Kemperor athiest?

Yes but not an opebo atheist. They would vote for an atheist who will not threaten their religion over a non-atheist who would threaten their wallets, though not by much

[True Democrat]

I think it would be something like this:

African-Americans: 45% Al, 40% Lewis, 15% KEmperor

Mormons: 45% Al, 45% KEmperor (some Mormons will vote Republican no matter what), 5% Lewis, 5% third party or uncommitted.

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

African-Americans:
65% Al
20% Lewis
15% KEmperor

Mormons:
I think TrueDem is right, though keep in mind that KEmperor is not a Republican, he is a Unionist Independent.

[12th Doctor]

My best guess in a real election:




KEmp: Blue

Red: Lewis

Gray: Al

[Alcon]

My best guess in a real election:




KEmp: Blue

Red: Lewis

Gray: Al

This seems kind of realistic, although vote-splitting would probably flip many of these states.

[Akno21]

I think one of the two (Lewis/Al) would drop out. I know I'd encourage one of them to, since the vote shouldn't be split in the way it could.

I think Lewis/Kemp might be the same as Kerry/Bush, actually.

[True Democrat]

My best guess in a real election:




KEmp: Blue

Red: Lewis

Gray: Al

I think Lewis (maybe Al) would carry Massachusetts.

[King]

Blacks
Lewis - 41%
Al - 40%
KEmperor - 19%

Mormons
Al - 48%  (being the only social conservative...)
KEmperor - 40% (endorsements by leading Christian Republicans pay off)
Lewis - 9%
John - 3% (I think some Mormons would vote for him over this group)

[12th Doctor]

Best KEmp could do:



Best Lewis could do:



Best Al could do:

[WMS]

A few tips for Al on NM:

Even though I will vote for KEmp and thus give the state to him, make your county map so that it's really, really, close between the two of you. Kinda like 2004, actually.

Inside Joke: Lewis wins Santa Fe County...and that's it. There ain't enough plain liberals anywhere else, but there are quite a few populists, so Al should take every other Democratic-voting county in NM.

Inside Joke 2: KEmp gets over 60% in Los Alamos County, being the Yuppie Libertarian haven they are.

Feel free to have fun with NM, though, Al...

[12th Doctor]

Regardless of what happens in PA, I think that Kemp would win in the Philadelphia area and the upward "stroke" of the "T".  Al would take the Western area of the state and the Northeast.

[Keystone Phil]

Regardless of what happens in PA, I think that Kemp would win in the Philadelphia area

Bucks, Montco, Chester and Delaware would go for KEmp.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Thanks for the suggestions

I've been thinking about the reality problem as well: which is why I'm going to make a shaded map. Basically Kemperor wins the coastal suburban counties by huge margins (let's say 70/80% in some of them) and I'll also assume a high turnout in them.

[minionofmidas]

Black vote- 50% Al, 40% Lewis, 10% Kemperor. They aren't that socially liberal, which would help you.

Mormons- 75% Al, 5% Lewis, 5% Kemperor, large percentage stay home.

I disagree

Black vote -   45% Al 40% Lewis  15% Kemperor
Mormon - 50% Kemperor   45% Al    5% Lewis

There are lots of Native Hawai'ian Mormons, who would vote for me.
Since I think they mostly vote Republican in real life, that also means higher-than-ordinary Left wing vote in Hawai'i.

[minionofmidas]

A few tips for Al on NM:

Even though I will vote for KEmp and thus give the state to him, make your county map so that it's really, really, close between the two of you. Kinda like 2004, actually.

Inside Joke: Lewis wins Santa Fe County...and that's it. There ain't enough plain liberals anywhere else, but there are quite a few populists, so Al should take every other Democratic-voting county in NM.

Inside Joke 2: KEmp gets over 60% in Los Alamos County, being the Yuppie Libertarian haven they are.

Feel free to have fun with NM, though, Al...

I want Taos and McKinley!

[Colin]

A note about Western PA.

The Mon Valley and the Southwest would go extremely for Al, being a bastion of old labor and populism. I could see Greene, Washington, Fayette all going strongly for Al and Westmoreland would be a two-way race between Al and KEmp, KEmp winning the suburban areas around Murrysville and Greensburg.

Allegheny would be split between all three with KEmperor winning the suburban areas in the North Hills, some of the South Hills, Monroeville, and Robinson Township, Lewis would do well in Squirrel (sp?) Hill and Oakland, basically he would win the Jewish vote and the College Vote, while the City and most of the river towns, like Homestead, Sharpsburg, Bellevue, and Ambridge, would be strong Al territory.

Butler County would be close but KEmperor would probably win it due to the large, conservative, suburban area around Cranberry. KEmperor would also do well around the Grove City area. Al's best areas would be in Butler proper and in some of the smaller towns. Lewis would do somewhat well in college towns like Slippery Rock but wouldn't have too much of a following. Lewis probably wont get over 12% in Butler County.

Beaver County would be Al land. Al would do well almost everywhere but his best areas would be Beaver, Beaver Falls, Rochester, and Big Beaver. KEmp would do better in Aliquippa and in the areas closer to the city, the suburbs that have stretched into Southern Beaver County. Otherwise all other major areas would go to Al except possibly one might go towards Lewis, although I don't know what. Lewis probably wouldn't crack 10% in Beaver County.

Once you start to get away from the rivers and more towards the rural farm country I could see that as being very pro-KEmp although Armstrong, Indiana, and Franklin have a possibility of voting Al. Crawford would probably be close because of Meadville and Erie would go very strongly for Al.

The only county is Western PA where I could invision Lewis winning is Centre County because of Penn State but that would really rely on voter turnout.

Al would probably win: Greene, Washington, Fayette, Beaver, Crawford and Erie. Possibly Franklin, Armstrong and Indiana.

KEmp would win every other county except for Centre although, as I said above, Franklin, Armstrong and Indiana would be very close.

Centre is the only county I can see going for Lewis. The only real area that I can't predict is the T. Would it vote for an Atheist or a Populist? I really do not know.

[Siege40]

I'm pretty sure I can bring the State of Maine in for Al, I am his VP after all. Were the home states of VPs taken into consideration?

Siege

[bgwah]

Overall, Washington will probably vote for Lewis. Just judging by how I think the members on this forum would vote who are registered in Washington. I think StevenNick is the only Republican here, so Lewis (maybe Al if enough Dems vote for him) will win.

In real life, I don't think Al would have a chance in Washington. It leans more libertarian than it does authoritarian. In real life, Kemperor, being a moderate with a dem VP and Lewis/Al splitting the liberal, vote would win narrowly.

for the fantasy election, all of Eastern Washington goes to Kemperor.  In Western WA, King, Snohomish, Whatcom, San Juan, Jefferson, Pacific, Grays Harbor, Skamania, Pacific, Grays Harbor, and Thurston should go Lewis. All other counties in Western WA should go Kemp, Pierce going narrowly to him due to the fact that the only member from there is StevenNick.

And those 11 or so counties I mentioned for Lewis are more than enough to make the entire state go to him.

BTW, I live in King.