Census population estimates 2011-2019

[Non Swing Voter]

Maps of the relative state change in population vs the nationwide average (a.k.a. the bear). Red = you beat the bear and may gain a seat or two in redistricting. Blue = you lose to the bear and the bear may eat you and one or more of your seats.

All you really need to do to avoid the bear is outrun your peers, though, not necessarily the bear.

https://twitter.com/cinyc9/status/1211719646837137408

VA is interesting.

They used to grow faster than the US, but not any longer.

Why is that ?

Are they going the way of CA with skyrocketing property/rent prices that are keeping Americans out of the state (immigrants are still moving there) ?

It's definitely not the home prices.  There is still a ton of development in Northern Virginia (the expensive region).  I drive through Loudoun county often and there are huge developments that keep going up.  Even though the prices in NoVa are expensive they are relatively cheap compared to other huge metro areas like SF and NY and there are a lot of people that make similar salaries to those markets.  It's Southwest Virginia, which is shrinking rapidly, that's skewing the state average.  Most of the rest of the state is flat.  This is also why VA is trending blue so fast.  Depending how it's defined, NoVa is now about 35% of the statewide vote.  If things keep on this pace it could be closer to 40% in 10 years.

[Non Swing Voter]

I would be shocked if OH didn't lose a congressional seat this cycle. Also, I think VA might actually gain another electoral vote, as NOVA is historically undercounted, but it'll be a close call.

Why are people hyping up NOVA's growth when VA has not gained a EV in a very long time? If NOVA was another Atlanta, Phoenix, Dallas or Houston then VA would be gaining EV's like AZ, TX, FL or GA.

NOVA is growing pretty fast.  Loudoun county is one of the fastest growing counties in the country.  But Fairfax has stalled out.  Also, I think Virginia always has net domestic out migration more than most other southern states so NOVA has to make up for that while also offsetting population loss.  I suspect some of the rural population loss in states like Georgia and NC is just being shifted to other areas of the state whereas rural population loss in Virginia is going elsewhere.  But yeah, it's definitely not growing as fast as Atlanta, Phoenix, or the Texas cities. 

People tend to hype up NOVA not because it's growth is that massive but because its growth has shifted the politics of the state massively.  It's having a more pronounced effect than Atlanta is with respect to Georgia.   

[Non Swing Voter]

Any updated estimates on the electoral reappointments? So far, the only things that seem set in stone are that OR, AZ, CO, NC will gain 1, FL will gain at least 1, and TX will gain at least 2 while, While NY loses at least 1, PA, IL, RI, WV, MI all lose 1. The big question marks seem to be CA, MT, AL, OH, MN, VA, NY (2nd district), FL (2nd district), TX (3rd district). Is this an accurate summary of where things stand?

I wasn't aware that Virginia is on the cusp... hasn't population growth in VA slowed substantially.

[Non Swing Voter]

if the new numbers aren't out til February or later then doesn't that mean Trump's little scheme to steal congressional apportionment based on citizenship is screwed?  presumably then Biden could make the decision whether or not to include non-citizens as it's been done in the past.