I would be shocked if OH didn't lose a congressional seat this cycle. Also, I think VA might actually gain another electoral vote, as NOVA is historically undercounted, but it'll be a close call.
Why are people hyping up NOVA's growth when VA has not gained a EV in a very long time? If NOVA was another Atlanta, Phoenix, Dallas or Houston then VA would be gaining EV's like AZ, TX, FL or GA.
NOVA is growing pretty fast. Loudoun county is one of the fastest growing counties in the country. But Fairfax has stalled out. Also, I think Virginia always has net domestic out migration more than most other southern states so NOVA has to make up for that while also offsetting population loss. I suspect some of the rural population loss in states like Georgia and NC is just being shifted to other areas of the state whereas rural population loss in Virginia is going elsewhere. But yeah, it's definitely not growing as fast as Atlanta, Phoenix, or the Texas cities.
People tend to hype up NOVA not because it's growth is that massive but because its growth has shifted the politics of the state massively. It's having a more pronounced effect than Atlanta is with respect to Georgia.
Yeah what's more likely to happen than Virginia getting a 12th district is a push in by 2030 to make va 1st and va 10th lean d.
