Census population estimates 2011-2019

[DINGO Joe]

When do county estimates come out?

[DINGO Joe]

Yeah, it would be quite an upset if anyone could compete with WV as biggest loser.

[DINGO Joe]

Yeah, it would be quite an upset if anyone could compete with WV as biggest loser.

Last year IL lost more in total pop than WV.

Not percentage wise, and no matter what travails Illinois may be facing they don't come anywhere close to the demographic and public health problems WV  has.

[DINGO Joe]

Yeah, it would be quite an upset if anyone could compete with WV as biggest loser.

Last year IL lost more in total pop than WV.

Not percentage wise, and no matter what travails Illinois may be facing they don't come anywhere close to the demographic and public health problems WV  has.

IL lost more this year than last, though WV slightly edges IL in percent loss.

IL certainly gave it the old college try

[DINGO Joe]

Alabama is intriguing.  

No, no it's not.

[DINGO Joe]

Nice to see Oregon gaining a seat in your projection.  

Also didn't realize that Montana was so close to gaining a second district.  It looks like the new Rhode Island At-Large would take Montana's place for largest single district by population.

Montana has actually had some spillover from the drilling boom in adjacent states.  It may struggle sustaining any growth going forward, especially in the Eastern part of the state.

[DINGO Joe]

Also, what's with New Mexico ?

It even lost population last year, while most western states saw high growth - even the Plain states did better than NM.

I guess it's the Mississippi of the Rockies.

[DINGO Joe]

I just realized that the 2014 estimates were slightly different for the states.  Did the revision occur with the release of the 2015 estimates, or was there some sort of interim revision?

[DINGO Joe]

Aren't the latest state population estimates set to come out soon? Does anyone know when?

Tomorrow @9AM I think.  Part of the reason I wandered back in (though VA and AL were other reasons).

[DINGO Joe]

The most annoying thing about the estimates is that they change prior year(s) estimates (which i understand), but don't give you an easy way to see those changes.

[DINGO Joe]

It's been an hour and Jim hasn't posted his updated spreadsheet yet.

We can only assume the worst--he's in Tender's basement.

[DINGO Joe]

The estimate for Illinois is actually higher than last year's estimate, but they raised last year's estimate by 34,000, so a 1,000 gain becomes a 33,000 loss.

[DINGO Joe]

1. TX - 25,145,561 --> 28,304,596; +12.56%
2. ND - 672,591 --> 755,393; +12.31%
3. UT - 2,763,885 --> 3,101,833; +12.23%
4. FL - 18,801,310 -->20,984,400; +11.61%
5. CO - 5,029,196 --> 5,607,154; +11.49%
6. NV - 2,700,551 --> 2,998,039; +11.02%
7. WA - 6,724,540 --> 7,405,743; +10.13%
8. AZ - 6,392,017 --> 7,016,270; +9.77%
9. ID   - 1,567,582 --> 1,716,943; +9.53%
10. SC - 4,625,364 --> 5,024,369; +8.63%
11. OR - 3,831,074 --> 4,142,776; +8.14%
12. NC - 9,535,483 --> 10,273,419; +7.74%
13. GA - 9,687,653 --> 10,429,379; +7.66%
14. DE - 897,934 --> 961,939; +7.13%
15. SD - 814,180 --> 869,666; +6.81%
16. MT - 989,415 --> 1,050,493; +6.17%
17. CA - 37,253,956 --> 39,536,653; +6.13%
18. VA - 8,001,024 --> 8,470,020; +5.86%
19. TN - 6,346,105 --> 6,715,984; +5.83%

50 States + DC - 308,745,538 --> 325,719,178; +5.50%



All the states growing faster than the US as a whole, by partisan lean.

12/19 Republican.

Outside of Utah, and maybe Idaho, the only way states can grow fast is through immigration, so D can flip them all.

[DINGO Joe]

Has all the data been released yet?  I just see the top 10 figures they posted, not the excel sheets or maps they usually put out.

Go to the press kits link and there is a path to get to the estimates from there

[DINGO Joe]

You probably already knew this, but sometime this month. Last year, it was May 23.

It looks like the 24th

https://www.calendarwiz.com/calendars/calendar.php?crd=cens1sample&PHPSESSID=1376188eb446e0e6b8ec05b90f763b0f&jsenabled=1&winH=424

[DINGO Joe]

Very competitive race to be the largest city in WV as  Charleston and Huntington both continue to run into reverse.  Charleston continues to lead 47900 to 47100 but Charleston lost 800 vs a 500 loss for Huntington last year. 

[DINGO Joe]

Something I just figured out, if a state or federal prison opens in a county after the 2010 census, then it doesn't get incorporated into census estimates for the rest of the decade.  It's easy to see the demographic impact prisons have on small counties like Gilmer and Summers, WV and Bland, VA and since those prisons existed in the 2010 Census they're captured going forward, but for prisons opened in McDowell WV and Grayson VA after the 2010 census they never show up in Census estimates or American Community Survey data until I guess the Official 2020 Census.

[DINGO Joe]

Something I just figured out, if a state or federal prison opens in a county after the 2010 census, then it doesn't get incorporated into census estimates for the rest of the decade.  It's easy to see the demographic impact prisons have on small counties like Gilmer and Summers, WV and Bland, VA and since those prisons existed in the 2010 Census they're captured going forward, but for prisons opened in McDowell WV and Grayson VA after the 2010 census they never show up in Census estimates or American Community Survey data until I guess the Official 2020 Census.

I think that they do. The new unit in Grayson VA opened in September 2013. The estimates are as of July 1. There were population drops before 2014, and after 2014 that makes it look constant.

In a rural area, a prison might not attract workers into the county, since they can easily commute.

Census 2010   15533
Estimate 2010   15498
Estimate 2011   15366
Estimate 2012   15143
Estimate 2013   15131
Estimate 2014   15921
Estimate 2015   15953
Estimate 2016   15869
Estimate 2017   15665

Well, I've been using American Fact Finder, specifically via this link

https://business.wvu.edu/centers/bureau-of-business-and-economic-research/data/population-data

And then under the annual estimates of WV counties, I'll click on option 3 or 4 which gives me year by year table with gender or race options.  To look at another states counties I'll just use the add geographies button.  The population estimates for Grayson don't match the ones you have listed and as far as gender is concerned there not the sudden addition of 1000 males at any point.  Same for McDowell.

Also, if I use US census quickfacts it gives me a 2016 estimate of 15107 for Grayson and a 15665 estimate for 2017 (which is an odd increase)

https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/graysoncountyvirginia,blandcountyvirginia,gilmercountywestvirginia,mcdowellcountywestvirginia,WV,US/RHI225216

Why are our databases not matching?

[DINGO Joe]

I guess it's possible that the Census did a complete revision for Grayson with this year's estimate and it will all show up when the Gender and Race data are released in June.  Still don't see any indication that the Fed prison in McDowell that opened in the fall of 2010 was ever acknowledged.

[DINGO Joe]

Well, to make things more complicated a state prison opened up in Welch in the late 2000s.  At this point there should be about 1700 federal and state prisoners in McDowell County and yes they all should be in Welch.  In fact, the population at the Federal Prison reached as high as 1660 before sentencing reform brought it down to around 1250 today. 

[DINGO Joe]

US Estimate for 2018 is 327,167,434 which is only 1.4 million above last years estimate, but they decreased the 2017 estimate by 600.000 creating a 2.0 million yoy increase.

Not surprising given the declining number of births and steady increase in deaths as boomers age.  8 states lost population--IL, NY, CN, WV, LA, MS, WY, AK maybe more if try to adjust for 2017 original estimates

https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/popest/2010s-national-total.html

[DINGO Joe]

Nevada is listed in the press release as having the largest % increase yoy (along with Idaho)--2.1%, adding 62,000 people.  However, the 2017 estimate was reduced by 26,000 meaning the increase is actually only 36,000 above the original 2017 estimate.

[DINGO Joe]

US Estimate for 2018 is 327,167,434 which is only 1.4 million above last years estimate, but they decreased the 2017 estimate by 600.000 creating a 2.0 million yoy increase.

Not surprising given the declining number of births and steady increase in deaths as boomers age.  8 states lost population--IL, NY, CN, WV, LA, MS, WY, AK maybe more if try to adjust for 2017 original estimates

https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/popest/2010s-national-total.html

Didn't Hawaii also lose population?

Yeah, put Hawaii on the list.  Kansas also lost population vs original 2017 estimate but with the tweak to 2017 it lost it last year and gained a little this year, subject to future tweaks.

[DINGO Joe]

Colorado has added about 660,000 people this decade or more than the actual population of Wyoming (577,000).

[DINGO Joe]

Anybody have a handy link to how far off the final Census estimates were last decade vs the actual census in 2010 by state?  Of course with the caveat that past results don't equal future performance.