2013 Elections in Germany

[Franknburger]

AfD worst results appear to be along the western border (East Frisia & Emsland, but also Aachen II). They also performed quite poorly in Berchtesgaden, Schwandorf (on the Czech border), and Trier. 

[Franknburger]

That's a surprise - CDU also gains Hildesheim (southern Hannover suburbs).

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

My town is in!
Kronau: Erststimme CDU 54,9 (+5,1); SPD 20,6 (+1,5); FDP 2,8 (-8,2); GRÜNE 5,5 (-4,5); DIE LINKE 3,4 (-3,9); PIRATEN 2,6 (+2,6); NPD 1,8 (-1,1); REP 1,6 (+1,6); AfD 5,5 (+5,5); FREIE WÄHLER 1,3 (+1,3)
Zweitstimme CDU 49,5 (+9,7); SPD 18,3 (+1,2); FDP 4,9 (-13,0); GRÜNE 6,8 (-1,2); DIE LINKE 4,4 (-4,2); PIRATEN 2,5 (+0,2); NPD 1,6 (+0,2); REP 1,1 (-0,9); AfD 7,1 (+7,1); FREIE WÄHLER 1,2 (+1,2); others 2,5 (-0,4)

[minionofmidas]

160 of 299 constituencies now in, and based on those results the AfD is at 4.5 and the FDP is making it by 20 votes (5.00008%). Bavaria is way overrepresented (CSU 13%) and the East under, though - and the FDP is polling below 3% in East Germany.

[freek]

According to Dutch television, CDU gains Anhalt from Die Linke.

It may seem a bit weird that they are interested in a random district in Sachsen-Anhalt, but the CDU candidate is a farmer, Kees de Vries, who emigrated from the Netherlands to Germany in 1992. It's difficult to find someone with a more stereotypical Dutch name.  He was already a candidate in 2009, but was 350 votes short that time.

[jaichind]

ZFD

CDU/CSU   41.9
SPD-Green-Linke   42.6

CDU/CSU behind in seats 301 vs 305

FDP and AfD both at 4.8

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

CDU gains Freiburg from SPD

[ag]

CDU gains Freiburg from SPD

So, if we slice Germany into half, the southern half will not have a single non CDU/CSU district? Classy

The Pope Emeritus must be smiling

[Franknburger]

Interesting local result here - Ostholstein. The planned Fehmarnbelt link has been a major issue, especially the fact that it may lead to substantial increase in rail freight traffic directly through the main tourism resorts on the Baltic Sea coast, There has been quite some to and fro from Deutsche Bahn and the Federal Ministry of Transport: In late spring, the Minister announced that a new railway line off the coast and along the motorway may be built, a few weeks ago Deutsche Bahn denied this as unfeasible and put forward plans for extending the original line running through the resorts. All this lead me to expect CDU losses, and SPD/ Green gains here, as already in this Spring's local election. Well, here is tonight's result (PV)

CDU      41.1 (+8.3)
SPD      31.6 (+3.4)
Grüne     8.0 (-2.6)
FDP        6.1 (-11.5)
Linke      4.4 (-2.9)
AvD        5.0 (+5.0)
Pirates    1.6 (+- 0)
others     2.2 (+0.2)

CDU defended the constituency 45.8 to 37.2 SPD

[Hifly]

CDU gains Freiburg from SPD

[minionofmidas]

Rhineland-Pfalz all in.
turnout 72.8 (+0.9)
CDU 43.3 (+8.3), SPD 27.5 (+3.7), Greens 7.6 (-2.0), FDP 5.5 (-11.1), Left 5.4 (-3.9), AfD 4.8

Direct seats CDU 14 (+1), SPD 1 (-1). Notional distribution of 30 seats CDU 15, SPD 10, Greens 3, Left 2 - assuming neither AfD nor FDP makes it. If they both do CDU 14, SPD 9, Greens 2, FDP 2, Left 2, AfD 1. (If only FDP, Greens at 3. If only AfD, SPD at 9.) Anyways, no overhang here.

[minionofmidas]

CDU gains Freiburg from SPD

So, if we slice Germany into half, the southern half will not have a single non CDU/CSU district? Classy

The Pope Emeritus must be smiling

Official - Pfalz not in Southern half of Germany (nor, possibly, Southern Hesse)

[ag]

CDU gains Freiburg from SPD

So, if we slice Germany into half, the southern half will not have a single non CDU/CSU district? Classy

The Pope Emeritus must be smiling

Official - Pfalz not in Southern half of Germany (nor, possibly, Southern Hesse)

Ok, include those: Kaiserslautern (barely) and...?

[minionofmidas]

*Possibly*, since they're not in yet, Darmstadt and Groß-Gerau.

[buritobr]

The left-wing bloc (SPD+Grünen+Linke) had a sum of 42,5% of the vote. It lost 3% in comparison to 2009. In 2009, there was already a loss in comparison to 2005.

However, it is not "schlecht" if one compares to the historical vote of the left in the postwar Germany. In the 1980s, when there was no Linke, the sum of the votes for the SPD and Greens used to be close to 42,5%. In the 1970s, when there was no Linke and Greens, the vote on the SPD used to be between 40% and 45%.

So, the vote on the left today was close to the historical vote on the left in the postwar Germany, which used to oscilate between 40% and 45%.


But the CDU, the SPD, the FDP and the Greens moved to the right from the 1980s to the present day.

[Hifly]

The CDU has gained Prignitz - Ostprignitz-Ruppin - Havelland I !!!

[minionofmidas]

Something's wrong... Frankfurt I is up at the state website, while the city says five precincts still out.

[minionofmidas]

The CDU has gained Prignitz - Ostprignitz-Ruppin - Havelland I !!!

Quite the vote gain, too - up 12.8% in the list vote. Looks like normalcy is finally returning to Brandenburg after 19 years?

All three results from the state in so far show similar results.

[Franknburger]

The CDU has gained Prignitz - Ostprignitz-Ruppin - Havelland I !!!

.. which was rated "likely SPD"!  They also took Cottbus, and Gera-jena, from Linke. With the CDU already having taken 3 Brandenburg constituencies, an SPD overhang mandate there is becoming extremely unlikely.

[Beezer]

I'd say a couple of days from now the CDU/CSU will realize that this was anything but a win. Before the election we had a bürgerliche majority in the Bundestag. That is now gone, having been replaced by a leftist majority. What's more it'll be interesting to see who the CDU can govern with in the future (2017 and beyond). If the AfD replaces the FDP as a conservative-free market 7-10% fringe party, things won't get any easier for future CDU leaders.

[njwes]

If the FDP doesn't make it, as seems likely at this point, I'd imagine it'd be frustrating for the CDU; 2 or 3% of good right-wing votes wasted!

[Silent Hunter]

The CDU has gained Prignitz - Ostprignitz-Ruppin - Havelland I !!!

That's a very long name for a seat, that is...

[palandio]

This election is not a good one for party dissidents:

Siegfried Kauder (ex-CDU) got 3.0% in his consituency Schwarzwald-Baar (Baden-Württemberg).
Wolfgang Neskovic (ex-Linke) got 8.1% in his constituency Cottbus-Spree-Neiße (Brandenburg).

Comparison: Martin Hohmann (ex-CDU) got 21.5% in Fulda (Hesse) in 2005.

[Sozialliberal]

FDP vote holding up surprisingly well in superposh urban precincts. Left holding up much much better in the city than in rural parts of the state.

Here's a precinct Al may remember... 441 08, the Platen estate

CDU 84 17,3 %
SPD 218 44,9 %
FDP 5 1,0 %
Greens 58 12,0 %
Left 84 17,3 %
Pirate 12 2,5 %
AfD 17 3,5 %

How come FDP is doing so miserably? Isn't they supposed to be the Liberal Party? Or have they become more far right? Are they considered to the right of CDU? I read somewhere that they were regarded as the (big) business party. Which surprised me as I thought that would be CDU? And normally liberal parties, or at least the European style social liberal parties, tend to be small business parties, not advocating the needs of big businesses, as that's the aim of the conservative parties, and to a lesser extent, the social democratic parties.

Or is the reason simply that their party leader is extremely unpopular? And why would that be? Does he simply lack any kind of charisma? Or is it his policy positions that are the problem?

I'm glad to see The Greens holding up fairly well.

Let me clarify this for you: The German FDP is not a social liberal party like Venstre in Norway. It's an economic liberal party. Well, the FDP actually used to be a social liberal party in the 1970s, but that was a long time ago. If you asked me what Norwegian party is most similar to the German FDP, I'd say DLF, though the FDP is more moderate and not generally sceptical about the EU. I'm glad they're gone now.

[njwes]

FDP vote holding up surprisingly well in superposh urban precincts. Left holding up much much better in the city than in rural parts of the state.

Here's a precinct Al may remember... 441 08, the Platen estate

CDU 84 17,3 %
SPD 218 44,9 %
FDP 5 1,0 %
Greens 58 12,0 %
Left 84 17,3 %
Pirate 12 2,5 %
AfD 17 3,5 %

How come FDP is doing so miserably? Isn't they supposed to be the Liberal Party? Or have they become more far right? Are they considered to the right of CDU? I read somewhere that they were regarded as the (big) business party. Which surprised me as I thought that would be CDU? And normally liberal parties, or at least the European style social liberal parties, tend to be small business parties, not advocating the needs of big businesses, as that's the aim of the conservative parties, and to a lesser extent, the social democratic parties.

Or is the reason simply that their party leader is extremely unpopular? And why would that be? Does he simply lack any kind of charisma? Or is it his policy positions that are the problem?

I'm glad to see The Greens holding up fairly well.

Let me clarify this for you: The German FDP is not a social liberal party like Venstre in Norway. It's an economic liberal party. Well, the FDP actually used to be a social liberal party in the 1970s, but that was a long time ago. If you asked me what Norwegian party is most similar to the German FDP, I'd say DLF (the one that was founded in 1992), though the FDP is more moderate and not generally sceptical about the EU. I'm glad they're gone now.

So what is/has been their reason for existence the last couple decades? Were they filling a political niche not reasonably covered by the CDU?