2013 Elections in Germany

[Niemeyerite]

43% CDU
31% SPD
15% Greens
4.9% FDP
  3% Left
  2% Pirates
  2% Others

[mubar]

Lower Saxony predition:

39% CDU - Some tactical voters for FDP, while getting a few centrist swing voters.
29% SPD - Steinbrück dragging even the state party down.
15% Greens - Benefits of SPD voters.
  8% FDP - Still alive, and tactical voting adds 1-2 percent or so.
  4,5% Left - Again higher than polls, but just not enough to get in.
  2,5% Pirates - They are on a way to becoming a local party in Berlin city election in a few years.
  2% All others

Leading to a continued black-yellow majority of 47% against 44% of the red-green.

[Tender Branson]

Ahead of the state election, a new federal Emnid poll:

43% CDU/CSU (+2)
25% SPD (-1)
13% Greens (-1)
  7% Left (-1)
  4% FDP (+1)
  4% Pirates (nc)
  4% Others (nc)

Biggest. Gap. Ever.

Compared with their 11/11 poll, it seems 5% from the SPD switched over to the CDU (38-30).

[Tender Branson]

Lower Saxony:

First turnout measurement at 10am: 5.37% (down from 5.67% in 2008)

http://www.landeswahlleiter.niedersachsen.de/portal/live.php?navigation_id=6743&article_id=112202&_psmand=21

[Franzl]

Ahead of the state election, a new federal Emnid poll:

43% CDU/CSU (+2)
25% SPD (-1)
13% Greens (-1)
  7% Left (-1)
  4% FDP (+1)
  4% Pirates (nc)
  4% Others (nc)

Biggest. Gap. Ever.

Compared with their 11/11 poll, it seems 5% from the SPD switched over to the CDU (38-30).

Doubt it will stay that way, but we're almost in CDU absolute majority territory regardless of whether the Left gets in... (43-45 with the Left at 7%)

[Tender Branson]

Lower Saxony turnout at 12:30pm:

23.03% (up from 22.65% in 2008)

[minionofmidas]

Alright, for the heck of it, a prediction.

CDU 41.6%
SPD 28.1%
Greens 13.6%
FDP 5.5%
Left 5.2%
Pirate 3.0%
other 3.0%

McAllister barely hangs on.

[freefair]

Prediction- big surprises ahoy!!
CDU 45.2%
SPD 25.7%
Greens 12.4%
FDP 7.1%
Left 5.1%
Pirate 2.6%
other 1.9%

[RogueBeaver]

When do the polls close and how long does it take for results to trickle in?

[Franzl]

When do the polls close and how long does it take for results to trickle in?

Polls close in 45 minutes. Exit polls immediately, which are usually quite reliable within 1% or so.

[Franknburger]

Polls close at 18 h MET (in 45 minutes). Exit polls will be available immediately, first projection at around 18:30. Final results should be available by 22:00.However, if it is really tight and also depending on FPTP votes (and consequent allocation of compensation votes), it may take until midnight.

Participation is surprisingly high, which is a good sign for SPD. At 16:30, 51.3% had voted, compared to 49.5% at the same time five years ago.

For those understanding German, the best place to follow results should be
http://www.ndr.de/regional/niedersachsen/landtagswahl_niedersachsen_2013/index.html.

Otherwise, try http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/lower-saxony-election-could-foretell-national-vote-a-878457.html

[Franzl]

I'm really kind of undecided about this election.

I'd probably vote SPD in Niedersachsen, and I don't really want to see black-yellow given the satisfaction of surviving as a coalition, but on the other hand.....watching the SPD in the coming days and weeks if they screw this up massively....would also be quite amusing.

[Tender Branson]

At 16:30, 55.3% had voted, copmapred to 49.5% atz the same time five years ago.

53.3%

[minionofmidas]

listening to the NDR livestream, they seem to be hinting it's looking good for black-yellow.

[Franknburger]

At 16:30, 55.3% had voted, copmapred to 49.5% atz the same time five years ago.

53.3%

You are right. Thanks for the correction-

[Tender Branson]

Looks like a good day for the Conservatives in Germany/Austria today ...

[minionofmidas]

guesstimated final turnout 60.5%.

These are often quite wrong, though.

[Hifly]

46-46!!!

[minionofmidas]

CDU 36.0
SPD 32.5
FDP 10.0
Greens 13.5
Left 3.5
Pirates 2.0

Some surprises. And a long wait.

[Tender Branson]

Ok ...

[Tender Branson]

68-67 seats for Black/Yellow

10% FDP ?

WTF ?

[minionofmidas]

"If you want to see McAllister reelected you have to vote FDP".

[jaichind]

Looks like the CDU loan votes for FDP worked.  In retrospect SPD should have loaned some votes to Linke.

[Franknburger]

Looks like the CDU loan votes for FDP worked.  In retrospect SPD should have loaned some votes to Linke.

That's what they did in 2008, to ensure CDU does not get an absolute majority.

[jaichind]

ZDF exit polls show 36.5 vs 36.5.  Wow, this will take a while to figure out who won and will have to take into account the FPTP winners.