could Julian Castro win statewide in 2014?

[© tweed]

could Julian Castro win statewide in 2014?

[Maxwell]

No, Rick Perry has survived worse. If he gets beat in the primary, it gets even worse for Castro.

[The Mikado]

Absolutely not.  (I assume you're talking about governor, but it applies to all statewide races). 

[Talleyrand]

No chance whatsoever.

[Blue3]

Is the Mayor position term-limited?

And how do the terms run?
(is it 4 years, 2 years, if it's 4 years then would the next mayoral election be in '14 or '16)

[bedstuy]

No.

The Democrats haven't won a meaningful statewide race in Texas since... 1990?  They've run good candidates against weak republican candidates and still lost by a million votes.

[Indy Texas]

I'm not sure a city mayor has ever been elected to statewide office in Texas. Bill White, Ron Kirk, Tom Leppert...all lost. It's a poor stepping stone - the state is so big that no one outside of your media market will have heard of you.

[The Mikado]

No.

The Democrats haven't won a meaningful statewide race in Texas since... 1990?  They've run good candidates against weak republican candidates and still lost by a million votes.

1994, but yeah.  Democrats have lost every statewide office in 1998 onwards, and there's no chance for 2014 to buck that pattern.

[Vosem]

Well, physically speaking he can, but if no Democrat won in 2006 it won't happen in 2014.

[Kushahontas]

Is the Mayor position term-limited?

And how do the terms run?
(is it 4 years, 2 years, if it's 4 years then would the next mayoral election be in '14 or '16)

term limits in the county used to be among the most aggressive in the country, but have been relaxed quite a bit. Currently the mayor's office has a four-term limit, with each term lasting 2 years and being elected in the spring of odd years (so Castro will likely run for re-election to a third term in a few months, though he has not acknowledged it.)

I must say, as a resident, I am just not feeling the talk of him as a serious candidate. For those who say that he is Chief Exec of a state bigger than New Hampshire, it must be said that under the council-manager system of local government, he has little real power in the city. Our city manager is the real Chief Executive tbh. I don't get the Castro talk.

[Skill and Chance]

He needs a Republican midterm for it to even be on the table for him.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

He probably could, considering how weak Perry is, but I don't think he will.  He probably needs to go to the state Legislature or Congress first.

[RogueBeaver]

Perry's weakened among Republican voters. People who disapprove of Rick Perry because they view him as insufficiently conservative aren't gonna vote Donk.

Plus Perry has always had hyped opponents who belly-flopped in each of his gubernatorial elections.

[Maxwell]

If a democrat were to win in Texas, they would have to be away from the Democrat national party, and Castro already disqualified himself by being the keynote speaker at the DNC.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Perry's weakened among Republican voters. People who disapprove of Rick Perry because they view him as insufficiently conservative aren't gonna vote Donk.

Plus Perry has always had hyped opponents who belly-flopped in each of his gubernatorial elections.

I'm a Republican and I don't like Rick Perry, but not because he's "not conservative enough".  Quite the opposite; I think he's too far-right.  And most of America must agree with me, because when he was running for president, he was behind President Obama by double-digits in most of the general election polls nationally.

[Cryptic]

Don't think he'd win, but I'd expect him to come closer than any Democrat in twenty years. 

[pbrower2a]

If a democrat were to win in Texas, they would have to be away from the Democrat national party, and Castro already disqualified himself by being the keynote speaker at the DNC.

What if Texans are getting tired of the statewide GOP?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Only if someone like Kinky Friedman ran again and picked up lots of protest votes from disaffected Republicans. That requires an unpopular Republican candidate again to begin with though and I have a feeling Perry's getting primaried.

[The Mikado]

Big city mayor is no position to run for Governor (or anything else) of Texas from.  Say his name recognition allows him to go from the usual 50-50 result in Bexar County to a 53-47 or whatever: that's not going to tip anything.  The formula of 60+ in Travis, ~58% in Dallas, ~53% in Bexar, tying in Harris, and landsliding in the Valley and El Paso is a recipe for 43-44% of the vote and not a vote more.  To get any closer than that in TX you need to cut into either the white suburbanites or the white rural voters, and there's no shot at either as long as Obama' president.

[old timey villain]

If a democrat were to win in Texas, they would have to be away from the Democrat national party, and Castro already disqualified himself by being the keynote speaker at the DNC.

What if Texans are getting tired of the statewide GOP?

In the south, getting tired of your GOP overlords is still better than voting for the gay socialist atheist party.

[justfollowingtheelections]

Castro would be better off running for a House seat like his brother did or become an Obama cabinet member

[old timey villain]

This reminds me of Jimmy Smitt's character in the West Wing. He was a Hispanic Democratic mayor of Houston and then ran for the presidency- and he won Texas! I doubt Castro could do the same.

[nolesfan2011]

not unless he is running against someone extreme like Louie Gohmert, otherwise no

No chance whatsoever.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Big city mayor is no position to run for Governor (or anything else) of Texas from.  Say his name recognition allows him to go from the usual 50-50 result in Bexar County to a 53-47 or whatever: that's not going to tip anything.  The formula of 60+ in Travis, ~58% in Dallas, ~53% in Bexar, tying in Harris, and landsliding in the Valley and El Paso is a recipe for 43-44% of the vote and not a vote more.  To get any closer than that in TX you need to cut into either the white suburbanites or the white rural voters, and there's no shot at either as long as Obama' president.

I think you're being a tad pessimistic. If a prominent Democrat with a Spanish surname and a decent record could rack up impressive numbers in the "del" in 2002, it's possible that the same results could be replicated amongst urban Latinos. The real slumbering demographic in Texas are the relatively new Mexican-American communities in Houston and Dallas. If Castro could achieve turnout at the same level as in 2012 and overperform Obama by 5-10%, he could get 45-46% of the vote.

In general though I agree with your post, the TDP is dead for the foreseeable future. Hope springs eternal on the internet. Reality says something different.

[BaldEagle1991]

Unfortunately he has no chance. Unless Perry runs against him, or if he runs against a very gaffe candidate.

He does have a better chance in 2018 or 2022 though, but it will be tossup at best at that point, not a guarantee victory for him.

Castro would be better off running for a House seat like his brother did or become an Obama cabinet member

Sounds best at this point.

I think you're being a tad pessimistic. If a prominent Democrat with a Spanish surname and a decent record could rack up impressive numbers in the "del" in 2002, it's possible that the same results could be replicated amongst urban Latinos. The real slumbering demographic in Texas are the relatively new Mexican-American communities in Houston and Dallas. If Castro could achieve turnout at the same level as in 2012 and overperform Obama by 5-10%, he could get 45-46% of the vote.

That sounds promising, if the national GOP doesn't take note of Texas falling off their hands, but I think they'll try to get the urban Latinos fast, if that happens.