Florida votes

[Devils30]

1) Old Cubans are very heavy GOP, younger ones more Dem leaning. Old ones dying off from 2008..
2) Growing non-Cuban hispanic population

Looking at the map it seems like Obama did about the same as 2008 in Miami Beach, Coral Gables, Pincrest, Kendall etc but had a huge surge west of I-95 in places like Doral, Sweetwater, parts of Little Havana. Doral went from like 51-49 Obama in 2008 to 59-40 this time and Sweetwater from close to 60-40 McCain to a slight Obama win.

Got 2008 numbers from Dave's redistricting app.

http://www.miamiherald.com/2012/11/14/3097037/hialeah-a-rare-stronghold-for.html

[Devils30]

Yes but nowhere near any of these areas. I also think its similar to what happened with Asians after communism fell. Cubans aren't exactly natural constituents for a rural, white evangelical party. Of course Rubio would help short term but the non-Cuban bloc is growing while the Cubans are steady in pure numbers and declining as a percentage of Dade.

Precinct 410 in Miami-Dade is in Sweetwater and McCain took it 61-39 in 2008 while Obama won it 51-49 this year. I can't find anything else in America quite like it.


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Do you live down there. What are the demographics on those neighborhoods? Are things "changing?"
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[Devils30]

A decent swing happened in 2008 but it was only slightly better than the national trend. I think its bc the old Cubans were a monolithic GOP bloc and they are dying off.