Florida votes
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jman123
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« on: December 11, 2012, 08:13:29 PM »

Looking at Miami Dade county results I am astounded at the huge Obama upsurge there. What were the components that made this happen?
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Devils30
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« Reply #1 on: December 12, 2012, 12:00:11 AM »

1) Old Cubans are very heavy GOP, younger ones more Dem leaning. Old ones dying off from 2008..
2) Growing non-Cuban hispanic population

Looking at the map it seems like Obama did about the same as 2008 in Miami Beach, Coral Gables, Pincrest, Kendall etc but had a huge surge west of I-95 in places like Doral, Sweetwater, parts of Little Havana. Doral went from like 51-49 Obama in 2008 to 59-40 this time and Sweetwater from close to 60-40 McCain to a slight Obama win.

Got 2008 numbers from Dave's redistricting app.

http://www.miamiherald.com/2012/11/14/3097037/hialeah-a-rare-stronghold-for.html
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memphis
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« Reply #2 on: December 12, 2012, 12:30:12 AM »


huge surge west of I-95 in places like Doral, Sweetwater, parts of Little Havana. Doral went from like 51-49 Obama in 2008 to 59-40 this time and Sweetwater from close to 60-40 McCain to a slight Obama win.

Do you live down there. What are the demographics on those neighborhoods? Are things "changing?"
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Sbane
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« Reply #3 on: December 12, 2012, 12:39:13 AM »

I think it was more than just demographic changes, though they played a part in it. We saw similar swings against the Republicans amongst other Republican leaning immigrant groups such as the Vietnamese. The Republicans f'ed up big time with their anti-immigrant talk.
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Devils30
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« Reply #4 on: December 12, 2012, 02:29:48 AM »
« Edited: December 12, 2012, 02:31:29 AM by Devils30 »

Yes but nowhere near any of these areas. I also think its similar to what happened with Asians after communism fell. Cubans aren't exactly natural constituents for a rural, white evangelical party. Of course Rubio would help short term but the non-Cuban bloc is growing while the Cubans are steady in pure numbers and declining as a percentage of Dade.

Precinct 410 in Miami-Dade is in Sweetwater and McCain took it 61-39 in 2008 while Obama won it 51-49 this year. I can't find anything else in America quite like it.


[/quote]
Do you live down there. What are the demographics on those neighborhoods? Are things "changing?"
[/quote]
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #5 on: December 12, 2012, 05:24:11 AM »

Native Alaska had bigger swings than that.
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Sbane
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« Reply #6 on: December 12, 2012, 09:37:46 AM »

Devils30, why did so much of the swing happen this year, as opposed to 2008?
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BaldEagle1991
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« Reply #7 on: December 12, 2012, 10:13:19 AM »

Yes but nowhere near any of these areas. I also think its similar to what happened with Asians after communism fell. Cubans aren't exactly natural constituents for a rural, white evangelical party. Of course Rubio would help short term but the non-Cuban bloc is growing while the Cubans are steady in pure numbers and declining as a percentage of Dade.


I've always wondered how popular Marco Rubio is among Hispanics, especially among Cuban Americans.
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Devils30
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« Reply #8 on: December 12, 2012, 01:37:51 PM »

A decent swing happened in 2008 but it was only slightly better than the national trend. I think its bc the old Cubans were a monolithic GOP bloc and they are dying off.
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