Pew Forum: 2004 Election Marked by Religious Polarization

[Sam Spade]

Interesting survey on religious voting patterns from the Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life.

Link here, along with a more detailed .pdf file on the Survey:

http://pewforum.org/docs/index.php?DocID=64

Summary:

The close 2004 presidential election produced increased polarization between and within religious communities, according to a new poll conducted by The University of Akron's Bliss Institute of Applied Politics.

The Fourth National Survey of Religion and Politics, sponsored by the Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life, was conducted in November and December 2004.

Titled "The American Religious Landscape and the 2004 Presidential Vote: Increased Polarization," the poll included 2,730 respondents originally surveyed the previous spring.

The findings of the survey include:

* Mainline Protestants, considered a strong Republican constituency, divided their votes evenly between President George W. Bush and challenger John Kerry, producing the highest level of support for a Democratic presidential candidate in recent times from that religious group.
* Modernist Protestants (78%) and Catholics (69%) strongly supported Kerry, increasing their votes and turnout for the Democrat (71% and 70%, respectively) over 2000.
* The Democratic Party candidate gained ground among voters who were unaffiliated with major religions compared to 2000 (up 5 percentage points to 72%), but the turnout of those voters remained unchanged (52%).
* The Republican incumbent's biggest gain came among Latino Protestants (63%), who moved from the Democratic column in 2000 to the Republican column in 2004.
* Non-Latino Catholics, once a bedrock Democratic constituency, gave a majority of their votes (53%) to the Republican Party incumbent. This gain was due primarily to increased support among traditionalist Catholics, but President Bush also won the crucial swing group of centrist Catholics (55%).
* Black Protestants (17%) and Latino Catholics (31%) supported Bush more than in 2000, but remained solidly Democratic.

Foreign policy and economic priorities were far more important to the overall vote than social issues such as abortion or same-sex marriage. However, social issues were more important to Bush's religious constituencies. In contrast, economic issues were more important to Kerry's constituencies.

The nationwide survey has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points.

"Both President Bush and Sen. Kerry benefited from strong support among key religious constituencies," explains Dr. John Green, director of the Bliss Institute. "Yet there was strong polarization not only between different religions as was common in the past, but also within the major religious traditions, a relatively new phenomenon."

[Erc]

Modernist Protestant v. Mainline Protestant?

[Sam Spade]

Modernist Protestant v. Mainline Protestant?

I'm guessing more of UCC versus say normal Episcopalians or Presbyterians or something.  Don't really know.

If you read down in the original comment, the group that swung the hardest towards Bush and away from Kerry was:

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One of the dirty little facts about the Hispanic population in the US is that 40% of it is Protestant (esp. Pentecostal) and it is the part that is growing like crazy.

Same thing in Latin America:  One of things that's really under the radar is that Protestant Pentecostals are converting Catholics like wildfire and actually form a majority in a couple of Latin American countries (Guatemala is one, iirc)

[minionofmidas]

I know they're about ten percent in Brazil, where one of the candidates in the last presidential election, Anthony Garotinho, was a protestant (pentecostal IIRC) lay preacher, as well as a state governor, and got a huge share of the Protestant vote. Since most Brazilian Protestants are dirt poor, these votes went to Lula in the runoff.

[Democratic Hawk]

The findings of the survey include:

* Mainline Protestants, considered a strong Republican constituency, divided their votes evenly between President George W. Bush and challenger John Kerry, producing the highest level of support for a Democratic presidential candidate in recent times from that religious group.

I pretty much welcome that finding. Being a Protestant Democrat, I was beginning to feel somewhat marginalised

I can understand fundamentalists being Republican - but I'm hopeful that if the Democratic Party moves moderate on social issues, they could get more evangelicals on board

Dave

[WMS]

I can understand fundamentalists being Republican - but I'm hopeful that if the Democratic Party moves moderate on social issues, they could get more evangelicals on board

Dave

Yes, I think there's room for movement among evangelicals. Dig deeper into the Pew Forum surveys - especially their earlier one on ideology and belief from a few months back...here.

[muon2]

Modernist Protestant v. Mainline Protestant?

I'm guessing more of UCC versus say normal Episcopalians or Presbyterians or something.  Don't really know.

The survey uses categories that classify predominantly white denominations as Evangelical Protestant, Mainline Protestant, or Catholic. These labels are applied to churches.

Then the authors use three sets of factors to subdivide each of these religions into Traditionalist, Centrist, or Modernist. These factors are applied to individual respondents. So, a single mainline church may have members that are traditionalist, centrist, and modernist.

The three sets of measures used each have a number of individual survey factors. The belief set measures include belief in God, belief in an afterlife, views of the Bible, existence of the Devil, evolution, and truth of all the world's religions. The behavior set measures include church attendance, financial support, private prayer, cripture reading, and small group participation. The identification measures were tailored to the specific self-identification with the Evangelical, Mainline or Catholic movements.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

One of the dirty little facts about the Hispanic population in the US is that 40% of it is Protestant (esp. Pentecostal) and it is the part that is growing like crazy.

Same thing in Latin America:  One of things that's really under the radar is that Protestant Pentecostals are converting Catholics like wildfire and actually form a majority in a couple of Latin American countries (Guatemala is one, iirc)
[/quote]

Protestant Hispanic groups are rapidly growing. Our UCC church hosts Spanish-language Pentecostal and Anglican congregations. Most of these members were from Catholic ancestry, but sought a more charismatic faith.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I can understand fundamentalists being Republican - but I'm hopeful that if the Democratic Party moves moderate on social issues, they could get more evangelicals on board

Dave

Yes, I think there's room for movement among evangelicals. Dig deeper into the Pew Forum surveys - especially their earlier one on ideology and belief from a few months back...here.

Interesting

[opebo]

One of the dirty little facts about the Hispanic population in the US is that 40% of it is Protestant (esp. Pentecostal) and it is the part that is growing like crazy.

Same thing in Latin America:  One of things that's really under the radar is that Protestant Pentecostals are converting Catholics like wildfire and actually form a majority in a couple of Latin American countries (Guatemala is one, iirc)

Yucko!  This is frightful.  My but every area of the world seems beset by bad news.

[opebo]

I know they're about ten percent in Brazil,

This is terrible!  The cancer spreads.  I'd better get down there soon before that country is ruined as well. 

Did you know that currently prostitution is legal there?

[minionofmidas]

I know they're about ten percent in Brazil,

This is terrible!  The cancer spreads.  I'd better get down there soon before that country is ruined as well. 

Did you know that currently prostitution is legal there?

Legal here, too, so that's hardly amazing news to me.

[Democratic Hawk]

I can understand fundamentalists being Republican - but I'm hopeful that if the Democratic Party moves moderate on social issues, they could get more evangelicals on board

Dave

Yes, I think there's room for movement among evangelicals. Dig deeper into the Pew Forum surveys - especially their earlier one on ideology and belief from a few months back...here.

A lot of interesting data there, thanks for the link

Dave

[WMS]

I can understand fundamentalists being Republican - but I'm hopeful that if the Democratic Party moves moderate on social issues, they could get more evangelicals on board

Dave

Yes, I think there's room for movement among evangelicals. Dig deeper into the Pew Forum surveys - especially their earlier one on ideology and belief from a few months back...here.

Interesting

A lot of interesting data there, thanks for the link
Dave

Al and Democratic Hawk, you're quite welcome! Just doing my part to dispell the image of religious folks as some sort of conservative monolithic force.

And feel free to comment on any parts you find of interest!