LA and NC 2014 Congressional Races

[RogueBeaver]

This WaPo article on Landrieu is strange. An ad buy is panic?

[Joshgreen]

This WaPo article on Landrieu is strange. An ad buy is panic?

Just spin to fit the narrative of Dems on the run.

[Miles]

NC-Sen: Brannon is stepping up his rhetoric against Tillis, calling him unelectable and corrupt. I guess Tillis would be another agent of 'tyranny', à la Romney. Team Tillis should write off Brannon at their own peril, as this cat fud would escalate in a (likely nasty) runoff.

More NC-Sen: The NCGOP and the RNC are announcing a joint effort called 'Boots on the Ground.' Essentially, they want to ensure that their nominee (whoever it is) has some sort of canvassing operation in place going into the general. 'Could they be bracing for nomination of a weaker candidate?

Another goal of Boots on the Ground is minority outreach. If Tillis gets the nomination, look for Democrats to highlight the contentious relationship between the NCGA and the NAACP. This clip is a good example of that, as Tillis literally runs from NCAAP leaders.

NC-02: Like Aiken, Crisco is emphasizing his centrist appeal, an essential in this 57% Romney seat. He's using the experience factor to distinguish himself from Aiken, which I understand.

LA-Sen: Democrats are pulling out all the stops for Mary. I'll touch on this later in my LA-06 rant, but Edwards will help to increase black turnout around Baton Rouge. Similarly, Shreveport mayor Cedric Glover (a black D) is reportedly being drafted to run against Fleming. Fleming would obviously be favored, but Glover is term limited as mayor, so why not go for it?

Going by my baseline, Mary is gonna need at least 57-58% in Caddo Parish to win statewide; Glover would help her achieve that. I think Mary is in a position to do well up there; aside from a few campaign stops he's made up there, Cassidy is very much unknown in northern LA. Also, going into this cycle, the LA Dems said they wanted to target northern LA and Glover's name was mentioned.

More LA-Sen: Our friend Maginnis weighs in. By overpemphasizing healthcare, Mary's opponents are playing with fire. Vitter's fiscal hawks in the legislature will preclude any passage of the popular Medicaid expansion, giving her a popular issue to run on throughout the campaign.
Moreover, AFP has said that it will target any legislators who support it. And if nothing else, as with Hagan and Begich's races, the Koch brothers make for good bogeymen.

Finally, this line is pretty encouraging for Mary, especially coming from Maginnis:

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We'll see if she rebounds with more ad investments. Speaking of which:

This WaPo article on Landrieu is strange. An ad buy is panic?

I don't get it, either. Responding to the AFP ads is 'panic'?

[Miles]

NC-Sen: Harris has an internal out. Ostensibly, it looks like good news...for Tillis:

Tillis- 33%
Harris- 22%
Brannon- 12%
Other/Not sure- 33%

I think the goal of this poll, though, was to make Harris look like the best anti-Tillis.

[Miles]

NC-Sen: Tillis makes headlines with a minor gaffe/misstep. He fudged some of his college credentials in his bio. He holds a degree from an independent online program associated with the University of Maryland, but instead listed the University of Maryland- College Park.

More NC-Sen: Brannon is donning his tinfoil hat yet again. The UN and the Obama Administration are acting jointing through Obamacare and Agenda 21, you see. Its part of Obama's global conspiracy to 'control life.' It also sounds like he's jumping in board with the anti-vaccination crowd.

More NC-Sen: This weekend, Mike Huckabee will be going to bat for fellow pastor Mark Harris.

LA-Sen: Mary was among a handful of US federal officials sanctioned by the Russian Foreign Ministry. The two most likely reasons are 1) her longstanding criticisms of Russia's adoption policy and 2) as Energy Chair, she's looking to curtail Russia's clout in the global oil/gas market. In any case, she's considers it a 'badge of honor' .

LA-06: One of the things Governor Edwards was (is) known for are his quick witticisms and zingers. Twitter is actually a great venue for that. If his exchanges with Dietzel are any indication, his Twitter page is definitely worth following, for the entertainment value if nothing else.  

[Maxwell]

Tillis is literally worthless. Someone please beat him in this primary.

[RogueBeaver]

Considering that the main alternative is even more insane than Angle...

Miles: So Tillis followed in Bevin's footsteps. Landrieu's right on Russia. I certainly hope there will be plenty of LA-06 debates, they'd be awesome.

[Maxwell]

Considering that the main alternative is even more insane than Angle...

Miles: So Tillis followed in Bevin's footsteps. Landrieu's right on Russia. I certainly hope there will be plenty of LA-06 debates, they'd be awesome.

There are plenty of people in the primary Rogue! Greg Brannon is not inevitable if Tillis continues to be a failure.

[RogueBeaver]

I'm sceptical of Grant and Harris too.

[moderatevoter]

What about Alexander? Why is he polling so well.

[morgieb]

Why on earth no strong Republicans wanted to run in North Carolina is beyond me.

[Joshgreen]

Tillis is the most electable of the bunch, which speaks poorly for the NCGOP's recruitment ability. Harris and Brannon are DOA in a general election.

[Miles]

LA-02: Grrr. Mary's first cousin, Gary Landrieu, will be challenging Richmond again. He ran a quixotic campaign in 2012, but Richmond won the primary 55-25.

I really don't think the Landrieus should be doing anything that would antagonize the black vote, but I don't see this challenge going anywhere.

[Miles]

Environmental groups have launched ads in several states defending Senators. Hagan was one of the beneficiaries. First, this provides some cover against the AFP ads. Second, the message here should be especially effective as the coal ash spill debacle is still making headlines.

Conversely, most of the leading environmental groups are spurning Landrieu. Supporting her is a bridge too far for many of them because of her strong ties to the oil/gas industry. That's probably a net plus for her.

LA-Sen: When asked who he'd support for Majority Leader, Cassidy makes no mention of McConnell. Instead, he touts Cornyn.

[Dancing with Myself]

I've gotten stuff in the mail the last two Saturdays from Brannon (via Rand's office,) and Phil Berger for Coble's spot. Funny stuff, Brannon's was pages long and rambled that Tillis would have to defend himself more than attack, and Berger's wasn't bad.

The only reason I got that was because I am still registered Republican I need to switch to unaffiliated before primary day.

House wise I'm still undecided Senate I am still for Hagan.

[Miles]

Rove is dropping an $1 million buy for Tillis going into the primary. On the other side of the primary, Mike Lee is also heading to NC to raise money for Brannon.

House wise I'm still undecided Senate I am still for Hagan.

Good to hear

Thats about where I'd be, too. I liked Collison in NC-06, but he dropped out; I'd probably be looking for whoever is the most sane non-Berger guy. He probably wins, but I'd like to see him actually work for it.

[Miles]

NC-01: In a rare bit of news from this district, NC-01 was the latest in Stephen Colbert's Better Know a District series. He interviewed Butterfield.

[Miles]

NC-Sen: The Majority PAC is out with an ad linking Tillis to the Kochs.

More NC-Sen: The only remaining Republican debate is set for April 22. Harris might not be guaranteed a spot in it, as candidates must have a poll average of at least 7%. He currently averages 7.33%. Tillis, Brannon and Grant look safe.

NC-02: True to form, after showing up late to file for reelection, Ellmers got into a shouting match with a constituent over immigration. The best part? They guy arguing with her was from a tea party group!

NC-Misc. These are the 7 most interesting Congressional primaries in the state. No surprises to regulars here

LA-Sen: The Senate Majority PAC also has an ad in LA. As in NC, it links Cassidy the Kochs and emphasizes their opposition to flood insurance. While these ads should help in tearing down Cassidy and Tillis, I'm still worried about how high Landrieu and Hagan's unfavorables are.

[RogueBeaver]

Hope she gets primaried soon enough. I'm sure Pubs can find someone better on issues and who doesn't throw juvenile insults at people who disagree with them on said issues.

[Miles]

LA-Sen: Bill Cassidy is out with a lengthier biographical video. Its focuses on his medical background while former patients praise him.

More LA-Sen: A 47% moment for Cassidy? 'Could be but I'm not sure. At an oil and gas industry meeting he was asked about Obamacare. The jargon he used to describe the uninsured was, er, not exactly politically correct:

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More LA-Sen: Maness goes on Peter Schiff's show. He makes his pretty standard pitch. He gets some poll numbers/firms wrong, which is annoying for nerds like me

NC-Sen: Ted Alexander is out with a mostly biographical ad touting his work as Shelby mayor. He's trying to make the electability argument by citing PPP's polls. Still, its not often you see a Republican touting PPP except for a certain R-PA avatar here if a Republican is leading.

NC-03: When you think of the words "North Carolina" and "conservative," one of the first names that comes to mind is the late Sen. Jesse Helms. Facing attacks on his right flank, Jones is out with a radio ad featuring an endorsement from Helms' widow.

NC-12: Marcus Brandon may be paying the price for his 'contrarian' reputation. While he's casting himself as a maverick he's upset the Democratic base over the past few sessions by 1) supporting the Republicans voucher efforts 2) helping to override Perdue's veto of the 2012 budget. He got into politics by working on Jack Carter's 2006 campaign for NV-Sen and then went to help Dennis Kucinich.

On a side note, ICYMI, Charlotte Mayor Patrick Cannon was arrested and resigned today. Thats gotta help Smuggie Mitchell in some kinda way. Mitchell ran against him in the primary; he should get some kinda benefit for getting to say "I told ya so!"

[windjammer]

Hum, interesting:

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[windjammer]

Miles, by which margin Edwards will operform the democrats? I guess there will be a run off? Will it help Landrieu?

[Miles]

Miles, by which margin Edwards will operform the democrats? I guess there will be a run off? Will it help Landrieu?

Quite a bit. In the last poll, he was already at 43%. Mary got 44% in CD6 in 2008, which is probably the ceiling for a 'normal' Democrat.

Keep in mind that, for most of his time as Governor, Edwards was very popular. There are a lot of older (normally Republican-voting) people in the district that remember him from those better times.

There was going to be a runoff even before he entered, given how many people there are running. Blacks have always been a very loyal part of Edwards coalition. He'll probably get virtually the entire black vote, about 20%-ish of the electorate, plus whatever else he can get should be enough.

Yes, he'll generate black turnout, which will help Landrieu. They're also trying to talk the mayor of Shreveport into running for LA-04 to replicate that effect in the north.

[windjammer]

Do you think Landrieu and Edwards will campaign together? Does the Landrieu family have good relations with Edwards?

[Miles]

Do you think Landrieu and Edwards will campaign together? Does the Landrieu family have good relations with Edwards?

Their relationship isn't very good. Landrieu was Treasurer under him in the 1990s and he saw her as sort of a upstart 'threat' to his faction back then. He didn't like that she ran for Governor in 1995 and worked against her then.

Of course, look for the Republicans to be linking them together anyway.