LA and NC 2014 Congressional Races

[RogueBeaver]

PPP NC poll out later today will have Foxx in the lead. Apparently she's considering it, but hopefully she stays out.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

At this point, I would almost see her as an improvement over Tillis, which says a lot about Tillis.

I think that making significant dents in the R supermajority will be hard in a midterm year, but if Hagan wins, it could help some of the more vulnerable Ds.

PPP is showing that the Rs are really unpopular but the state Democratic party really needs to step up in making its case, too.

What is important here is to minimize the midterm drop-off among Democrats and protect Hagan and other vulnerable Democrats.

It's also very important to slowly cut into the R supermajority just in time for the governor race in 2016.

The reason that the Tar Heels voted for the North Carolina Republicans is not because the people like them, but rather because North Carolina Democratic Party is plaque by scandals and imploded.

Tar Heels will vote for North Carolina Democrats again when present themselves as credible alternatives.

Yes, but they also have to distance themselves from the national party to some extent. A candidate like Heath Shuler could probably steal the majority of my family at this point. Obama, Obamacare and Amnesty are going to keep them voting Republican otherwise, regardless of how much they despise the GOP state government at this point.

[RogueBeaver]

Here's the full PPP NC poll: 36% of Pub voters are undecided, Foxx leads Berger 23/11. In matchups Hagan leads Tillis 45/40, Brannon at 44/40, and Cain 46/38. She's at 44/42 approval.

[Miles]

I think that making significant dents in the R supermajority will be hard in a midterm year, but if Hagan wins, it could help some of the more vulnerable Ds.

PPP is showing that the Rs are really unpopular but the state Democratic party really needs to step up in making its case, too.

What is important here is to minimize the midterm drop-off among Democrats and protect Hagan and other vulnerable Democrats.

It's also very important to slowly cut into the R supermajority just in time for the governor race in 2016.

The reason that the Tar Heels voted for the North Carolina Republicans is not because the people like them, but rather because North Carolina Democratic Party is plaque by scandals and imploded.

Tar Heels will vote for North Carolina Democrats again when present themselves as credible alternatives.

NO! Please do not refer to all people who live in NC as "Tar Heels!" That is extremely offensive to UNC haters like me!

[illegaloperation]

At this point, I would almost see her as an improvement over Tillis, which says a lot about Tillis.

I think that making significant dents in the R supermajority will be hard in a midterm year, but if Hagan wins, it could help some of the more vulnerable Ds.

PPP is showing that the Rs are really unpopular but the state Democratic party really needs to step up in making its case, too.

What is important here is to minimize the midterm drop-off among Democrats and protect Hagan and other vulnerable Democrats.

It's also very important to slowly cut into the R supermajority just in time for the governor race in 2016.

The reason that the Tar Heels voted for the North Carolina Republicans is not because the people like them, but rather because North Carolina Democratic Party is plaque by scandals and imploded.

Tar Heels will vote for North Carolina Democrats again when present themselves as credible alternatives.

Yes, but they also have to distance themselves from the national party to some extent. A candidate like Heath Shuler could probably steal the majority of my family at this point. Obama, Obamacare and Amnesty are going to keep them voting Republican otherwise, regardless of how much they despise the GOP state government at this point.

Arguably, what North Carolina Democrats need is a Mark Warner.

[illegaloperation]

Who would be the best person for Hagan to run against?

I am guessing Tillis or Foxx.

[publicunofficial]

Who would be the best person for Hagan to run against?

I am guessing Tillis or Foxx.

Tillis, Foxx, or a non-entity like Cain.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Tillis<Berger<Foxx<Cain<Berry<One of my List of Choices (Fetzer/Pendergraft/Myrick/Forest/Troxler).

[Miles]

This Politico article sums up Senator Landrieu pretty well:

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[Miles]

Congressman Howard Coble may be inching off the retirement watch this:

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Good news, IMO.

[nclib]

I think that making significant dents in the R supermajority will be hard in a midterm year, but if Hagan wins, it could help some of the more vulnerable Ds.

PPP is showing that the Rs are really unpopular but the state Democratic party really needs to step up in making its case, too.

What is important here is to minimize the midterm drop-off among Democrats and protect Hagan and other vulnerable Democrats.

It's also very important to slowly cut into the R supermajority just in time for the governor race in 2016.

The reason that the Tar Heels voted for the North Carolina Republicans is not because the people like them, but rather because North Carolina Democratic Party is plaque by scandals and imploded.

Tar Heels will vote for North Carolina Democrats again when present themselves as credible alternatives.

The main reason is gerrymandering. In 2014, we'd at best reduce the supermajority to a majority.

[Mr.Phips]

I think that making significant dents in the R supermajority will be hard in a midterm year, but if Hagan wins, it could help some of the more vulnerable Ds.

PPP is showing that the Rs are really unpopular but the state Democratic party really needs to step up in making its case, too.

What is important here is to minimize the midterm drop-off among Democrats and protect Hagan and other vulnerable Democrats.

It's also very important to slowly cut into the R supermajority just in time for the governor race in 2016.

The reason that the Tar Heels voted for the North Carolina Republicans is not because the people like them, but rather because North Carolina Democratic Party is plaque by scandals and imploded.

Tar Heels will vote for North Carolina Democrats again when present themselves as credible alternatives.

There are actually vulnerable Democrats left in the legislature?  If Republicans hold two thirds of the seats there, Democrats must be down to black majority seats and white liberal areas in the Research Triangle and Asheville. 

[illegaloperation]

I think that making significant dents in the R supermajority will be hard in a midterm year, but if Hagan wins, it could help some of the more vulnerable Ds.

PPP is showing that the Rs are really unpopular but the state Democratic party really needs to step up in making its case, too.

What is important here is to minimize the midterm drop-off among Democrats and protect Hagan and other vulnerable Democrats.

It's also very important to slowly cut into the R supermajority just in time for the governor race in 2016.

The reason that the Tar Heels voted for the North Carolina Republicans is not because the people like them, but rather because North Carolina Democratic Party is plaque by scandals and imploded.

Tar Heels will vote for North Carolina Democrats again when present themselves as credible alternatives.

There are actually vulnerable Democrats left in the legislature?  If Republicans hold two thirds of the seats there, Democrats must be down to black majority seats and white liberal areas in the Research Triangle and Asheville. 

Miles, please look into this

[Miles]

Miles, please look into this

Off the top of my head, I can only think of one Senate seat, SD25, which was 57% Romney; Senator Gene McLaurin won his first term with 53% last year.

For the House, I can think of at least three:

- Rep. Paul Tine, who represents a district based in Hyde, Beaufort and Dare counties.
- Rep. William Brisson; his district is 56%-ish McCain and is based in Bladen and Sampson counties. He's voted with the Republicans on some budgetary things and is well-entrenched but still maybe vulnerable despite running unopposed last year.
- I forget the representative's name, but the Democrats narrowly held onto a district centered in Jackson county last year.

[tpfkaw]

There are actually vulnerable Democrats left in the legislature?  If Republicans hold two thirds of the seats there, Democrats must be down to black majority seats and white liberal areas in the Research Triangle and Asheville.

Looking at the NC SoS site (http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/NC/42923/114645/Web01/en/summary.html), the following Democrats won close elections:

State Senate:

25th district - Gene McLaurin beat the similarly-named Gene McIntyre 53.01-46.99

State HoR:

2nd district - The amusingly named W.A. "Winkie" Wilkins beat Timothy Karan 56.68-43.32

6th district - Paul Tine beat Mattie Lawson 50.56-49.44

44th district - Rick Glazier beat Richard D. Button 56.31-43.69

46th district - Ken Waddell beat 80's soap opera character Gaston "G.L." Pridgen 54.06-45.94

50th district - Valerie Foushee, who cannot be a real person, beat Rod Chaney 55.04-44.96

54th district -  Deb McManus beat Cathy Wright 56.10-43.10

119th district - Lovable homeless community mascot Joe Sam Queen beat Mike Clampitt 51.73-48.27

In addition, there were quite a few unopposed Democrats, but I am not sure if any/how many of them are vulnerable.

[Miles]

^ That.

I'm not used to being upstaged on this thread, but yeah.

[illegaloperation]

There are actually vulnerable Democrats left in the legislature?  If Republicans hold two thirds of the seats there, Democrats must be down to black majority seats and white liberal areas in the Research Triangle and Asheville.

Looking at the NC SoS site (http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/NC/42923/114645/Web01/en/summary.html)

Wow. So many ~55% Republican districts. I wonder how vulnerable those are.

[Miles]

Not that I agree with McIntyre on this, but it probably plays well in the district:

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[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

^ That.

I'm not used to being upstaged on this thread, but yeah.

No, say it ain't so!

[Miles]

^ That.

I'm not used to being upstaged on this thread, but yeah.

No, say it ain't so!

Yikes...I was in a crabby mood last night.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

That is nothing, find your way into the Atlasian Senate and then you'll know what being crabby is like.

[windjammer]

Yankee, you are probably a kind of "moderate to conservative republican". So I would like to know, what's your opinion of Hagan, could you vote for her if the republican nominee is just horrible (Tillis,...)?

And Miles, how make you the maps, have you a software?

[Miles]

And Miles, how make you the maps, have you a software?

I use a mostly combination of DRA, MS Paint, Paine.NET and SnagIt Editor.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Yankee, you are probably a kind of "moderate to conservative republican". So I would like to know, what's your opinion of Hagan, could you vote for her if the republican nominee is just horrible (Tillis,...)?

And Miles, how make you the maps, have you a software?

Not if she were to vote for an immigration bill I deem to be too 1986ish (any path to citizenship/legalization w/o the Rand Paul amendment or something similar basically). Some of my family members may defect though since Tillis is the state legislature for all intents and purposes. I generally would like to see her lose, hence why I am so pissed about the crappy candidates running against her.

[JacobNC]

Joe Sam Queen's district voted for Obama in 2008, and it was probably very close in 2012.  He shouldn't be in much trouble unless he's a weak candidate.