LA and NC 2014 Congressional Races

[AmosNC]

I'd also say it's way too early to call this election for Hagan.  NC Politics is not very predictable.  Greg Brannon is picking up a lot of libertarians/Tea Party members.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

NC-7 will be good to watch.  Rouzer is expected to run against McIntyre once again.

I've heard. I'm honestly a little worried for McIntyre.

I'd also say it's way too early to call this election for Hagan.  NC Politics is not very predictable.  Greg Brannon is picking up a lot of libertarians/Tea Party members.

Agreed. One of the NCGOP candidates might be able to set themselves apart and make themselves known. If they do that, they can certainly knock Hagan off. For now, though, it leans towards her.

[AmosNC]

It all depends on whether or not Rouzer gets the nomination.  For the past three elections cycles, the previous nominee has tried to get the nomination and it never worked.  For example, Pantano sought it in 2010 (became the nominee) and then lost the nomination in 2012.  Breazle did the same thing as well.  Republicans would be wise selecting Rouzer, who already has name recognition.

[Miles]

I've heard of this guy before, but he seems like another second-tier candidate:

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[Miles]

Back in April, Vitter apparently talked Fleming out of the Senate race.

[RogueBeaver]

NC Pub Senate field is still a jungle, but Berry is the only one to tie Hagan. Hagan leads Cain/Foxx/Tillis 48-41, Ellmers 48-39.

[Miles]

I updated the OP for the House races. I'll be updating it regularly, as I did with the NC 2012 Congress thread.

[Miles]

Jones may have two primary challengers. Scott Dacey, a Craven County Commissioner, may run.

[illegaloperation]

NC Pub Senate field is still a jungle, but Berry is the only one to tie Hagan. Hagan leads Cain/Foxx/Tillis 48-41, Ellmers 48-39.

Hagan approval rating improved, but she now has a smaller lead? What's up with that?

[Miles]

NC Pub Senate field is still a jungle, but Berry is the only one to tie Hagan. Hagan leads Cain/Foxx/Tillis 48-41, Ellmers 48-39.

Hagan approval rating improved, but she now has a smaller lead? What's up with that?

Both NC's Senator's are anonymous.

Throughout 2010, Burr always had a decent chunk of No Opinion voters, but his leads fluctuated.

[RogueBeaver]

Tillis' allies have set up a SuperPAC. Who would run against him in a Pub primary?

[illegaloperation]

What are some of Kagan's specific weaknesses?

Her coming out of same-sex marriage is an obvious one. I am not sure how much of an impact that may have.

[Miles]

Tillis' allies have set up a SuperPAC. Who would run against him in a Pub primary?

Good. Maybe this will make Berry even less inclined to run. If Tillis actually runs, then I'd be surprised to see any other big names from the Charlotte area get in.

What are some of Kagan's specific weaknesses?

Her coming out of same-sex marriage is an obvious one. I am not sure how much of an impact that may have.

Eh, she wouldn't have been my pick for the SCOTUS; I liked Sotomayor much better

As for Hagan, I don't think the SSM endorsement will matter much. In the fast-growing suburbs, it will, at best, help her, and at worst, have no effect. As for the rural areas, some of the most pro-Amendment 1 counties, especially in the eastern part of the state, swung towards Obama or trended D. I don't really buy the argument that SSM will hurt her.

Back in the 2008 campaign Hagan said something to the tune of "I go around the state and no one can really tell me anything specific that Liddy Dole has done." I think Hagan ironically finds herself in a similar position. There have been some small localized things, like helping pass a bill improving water standards at Camp Lejeune, but nothing that really distinguishes her as a Senator.

[Miles]

Even though the Ryan budget would have caused coastal flood insurance rates to spike, clueless Cassidy had no problem voting for it:

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[RogueBeaver]

Nearly all Pubs vote for the Ryan budgets, but ultimately this race returns to the national/local framework. Obamacare/stimulus/guns or a localized subcomponent of the Ryan budget. Whoever tilts that balance wins.

[Miles]

Nearly all Pubs vote for the Ryan budgets, but ultimately this race returns to the national/local framework. Obamacare/stimulus/guns or a localized subcomponent of the Ryan budget. Whoever tilts that balance wins.

Yeah, but the state would be worse-off with a Senator who is less in tune with local issues.

[Miles]

Well, how bout that. Senator Landrieu and I were both in Charlotte this weekend; she was at the race with Dale Jr. supporting the National Guard:

[illegaloperation]

Well, how bout that. Senator Landrieu and I were both in Charlotte this weekend; she was at the race with Dale Jr. supporting the National Guard:

You managed to run into her? Wow!

[RogueBeaver]

Politico on the black vote's role for the SoDem troika.

[publicunofficial]

Today's good news keeps rolling in.

Cherrie Berry is out, per AP.

http://www.news-record.com/blogs/north_state_politics/article_176b2c68-c87d-11e2-9434-001a4bcf6878.html

http://www.wbtv.com/story/22447551/berry-wont-run-for-us-senate-against-hagan


Safe D.

[RogueBeaver]

Miles called it. Not terribly surprising, if disappointing, given Tillis' moves and that she never made any noise herself. Seat becomes more difficult for Pubs now, almost entirely reliant on national conditions.

[windjammer]

Today's good news keeps rolling in.

Cherrie Berry is out, per AP.

http://www.news-record.com/blogs/north_state_politics/article_176b2c68-c87d-11e2-9434-001a4bcf6878.html

http://www.wbtv.com/story/22447551/berry-wont-run-for-us-senate-against-hagan


Safe lean D.

It's North Carolina, not Massachussett. So we need to wait before saying it's a likely/safe race!

[Miles]

Another great birthday present for me

[RogueBeaver]

White LADP chair calls Obamacare opposition racist, gets pwned by non-white Pub governor and black Dem State Senator.

[RogueBeaver]

Tillis will soft launch tomorrow, file next week.