Since 1980, the ticket with shortest distance between the two home states wins.

[retromike22]

Since 1980, the ticket with the shortest distance between the two nominees’ home states wins. By home states I do not mean the states in which they were born, but the states in which they are politically based. In measuring the distance, I use the distance between the two states closest points.

2012
Obama’s Illinois is 622 miles from Biden's Delaware.
Romney’s Massachusetts is 730 miles from Ryan’s Wisconsin.

2008
Obama’s Illinois is 622 miles from Biden's Delaware.
McCain’s Arizona is 1462 miles from Palin’s Alaska.

2004
Bush’s Texas is 316 miles from Cheney’s Wyoming.
Kerry’s Massachusetts is 400 miles from Edwards’ North Carolina.

2000
Bush’s Texas is 316 miles from Cheney’s Wyoming.
Gore’s Tennessee is 527 miles from Lieberman’s Connecticut.

1996
Clinton’s Arkansas is 0 miles from Gore’s Tennessee (they border each other)
Dole’s Kansas is 806 miles from Kemp’s New York

1992
Clinton’s Arkansas is 0 miles from Gore’s Tennessee (they border each other)
Bush’s Texas is 447 miles from Quayle’s Indiana.

1988
Bush’s Texas is 447 miles from Quayle’s Indiana.
Dukakis’ Massachusetts is 1266 miles from Bentsen’s Texas.

1984
Reagan’s California is 462 miles from Bush’s Texas.
Mondale’s Minnesota is 586 miles from Ferraro’s New York.

1980
Reagan’s California is 462 miles from Bush’s Texas.
Carter’s Georgia is 659 miles from Mondale’s Minnesota.

Previous to 1980, the outcome is more random:

1976 longer distanced ticket wins.
1972 longer wins.
1968 longer wins.
1964 shorter wins.
1960 shorter wins.
1956 longer wins.
1952 longer wins.
1948 shorter wins.
1944 longer wins.

[Oswald Acted Alone, You Kook]

Are you counting CA or NY as Nixon's home state in 68/72?

[retromike22]

Are you counting CA or NY as Nixon's home state in 68/72?

CA for both.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

This is really just a coincidence. Bush didn't really win in 2000, and in 1984 I think the Democratic ticket lived closer to teach other than the Republican ticket.

[DINGO Joe]

It's heavily influenced by Texas which is a large centrally located state.  El Paso is closer to LA than it is to Houston.  Dalhart is closer to Idaho and Montana than it is to Houston, Texarkana is closer to North Carolina and Ohio than it is to El Paso, etc...

[RI]

It's heavily influenced by Texas which is a large centrally located state.  El Paso is closer to LA than it is to Houston.  Dalhart is closer to Idaho and Montana than it is to Houston, Texarkana is closer to North Carolina and Ohio than it is to El Paso, etc...

Close, but not quite:

El Paso to Los Angeles: 700.5 mi
El Paso to Houston: 678.4 mi (San Diego would work better in this comparison at 627.52 mi, and El Paso to Anaheim is only one mile further than El Paso to Houston)

Dalhart to Montana: ~625 mi
Dalhart to Idaho: ~615 mi
Dalhart to Houston: 601.25 mi

You were right about these though:

Texarkana to El Paso: 733.58 mi
Texarkana to North Carolina: ~565 mi
Texarkana to Ohio: ~645 mi.