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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  U.S. Presidential Election Results
  2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results (Moderators: Torie, ON Progressive)
  Texas swing
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Author Topic: Texas swing  (Read 4031 times)
old timey villain
cope1989
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« on: December 05, 2012, 11:28:24 pm »

Anybody surprised by the big swing in Texas this year? I didn't think the rural areas could get any more Republican but they did, and a lot of them were very hard swings. Harris County swung despite becoming more diverse in the past four years, but what's more surprising is that Travis County TX (Austin) swung even more strongly than Harris- I thought this was an increasingly liberal area. A lot of south Texas swung towards Obama but large swaths went more for Romney which is the most surprising to me considering Obama's awesome performance with Hispanics.

The only meaningful swing towards Obama was Dallas County, which is strange since it's long been thought of as a very conservative city with an evangelical streak. All the talk of Texas being a future swing state now seems unwarranted.

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Miles
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« Reply #1 on: December 06, 2012, 12:55:29 am »

Yeah, I really didn't think he had much more room to fall in the counties near the LA/AR/OK border.

I was really surprised that Travis trended R.
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BaldEagle1991
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« Reply #2 on: December 06, 2012, 12:58:51 am »

Anybody surprised by the big swing in Texas this year? I didn't think the rural areas could get any more Republican but they did, and a lot of them were very hard swings. Harris County swung despite becoming more diverse in the past four years, but what's more surprising is that Travis County TX (Austin) swung even more strongly than Harris- I thought this was an increasingly liberal area. A lot of south Texas swung towards Obama but large swaths went more for Romney which is the most surprising to me considering Obama's awesome performance with Hispanics.

The only meaningful swing towards Obama was Dallas County, which is strange since it's long been thought of as a very conservative city with an evangelical streak. All the talk of Texas being a future swing state now seems unwarranted.




I was surprised he didn't do well in Austin. But that's it. But I still think TX still has the potential to become a swing state due to demographics, plus many of the Hispanic counties still went for Obama (which is a promising sign for that prediction), and the big cities mainly swung to Romney because a lot of the conservatives who didn't vote in 08 at all (due to McCain's moderate positions) voted in 12 and went heavily for Romney.

I'm shocked you thought Dallas was conservative, it really isn't a conservative city at all, it's suburbs are.
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freepcrusher
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« Reply #3 on: December 06, 2012, 10:13:48 am »
« Edited: December 06, 2012, 10:18:43 am by freepcrusher »

one thing i found interesting was the hard R trend in the Balcones escarpment area. What makes that area more GOP then anywhere else in rural Texas?
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Snowstalker's Last Stand
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« Reply #4 on: December 06, 2012, 10:21:35 am »

It seems like the big swings in rural texas were in corn/oil/gas areas, while the swings in East Texas and the utterly useless counties near NM were smaller (some even swung D!)
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BaldEagle1991
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« Reply #5 on: December 06, 2012, 10:57:34 am »

The only way the majority of Hispanics in TX will ever vote GOP is if they all convert to Protestantism en masse. Just letting you know.
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BaldEagle1991
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« Reply #6 on: December 06, 2012, 01:42:29 pm »

one thing i found interesting was the hard R trend in the Balcones escarpment area. What makes that area more GOP then anywhere else in rural Texas?


I think there is some coal mining in those areas.
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old timey villain
cope1989
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« Reply #7 on: December 06, 2012, 06:03:17 pm »

Anybody surprised by the big swing in Texas this year? I didn't think the rural areas could get any more Republican but they did, and a lot of them were very hard swings. Harris County swung despite becoming more diverse in the past four years, but what's more surprising is that Travis County TX (Austin) swung even more strongly than Harris- I thought this was an increasingly liberal area. A lot of south Texas swung towards Obama but large swaths went more for Romney which is the most surprising to me considering Obama's awesome performance with Hispanics.

The only meaningful swing towards Obama was Dallas County, which is strange since it's long been thought of as a very conservative city with an evangelical streak. All the talk of Texas being a future swing state now seems unwarranted.




I was surprised he didn't do well in Austin. But that's it. But I still think TX still has the potential to become a swing state due to demographics, plus many of the Hispanic counties still went for Obama (which is a promising sign for that prediction), and the big cities mainly swung to Romney because a lot of the conservatives who didn't vote in 08 at all (due to McCain's moderate positions) voted in 12 and went heavily for Romney.

I'm shocked you thought Dallas was conservative, it really isn't a conservative city at all, it's suburbs are.

I've never been to Dallas, but I've been to Houston. All I ever heard was that Houston was more diverse and had more of a Hispanic feel, while Dallas had more of a cowboy culture, so I figured it was more conservative. I guess I also forgot to realize that the Dallas metro as a whole may be more conservative that Houston, but Dallas county is just much more urban than Harris which contains the city of Houston as well as a lot of suburbs.
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BaldEagle1991
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« Reply #8 on: December 06, 2012, 08:36:17 pm »

Anybody surprised by the big swing in Texas this year? I didn't think the rural areas could get any more Republican but they did, and a lot of them were very hard swings. Harris County swung despite becoming more diverse in the past four years, but what's more surprising is that Travis County TX (Austin) swung even more strongly than Harris- I thought this was an increasingly liberal area. A lot of south Texas swung towards Obama but large swaths went more for Romney which is the most surprising to me considering Obama's awesome performance with Hispanics.

The only meaningful swing towards Obama was Dallas County, which is strange since it's long been thought of as a very conservative city with an evangelical streak. All the talk of Texas being a future swing state now seems unwarranted.




I was surprised he didn't do well in Austin. But that's it. But I still think TX still has the potential to become a swing state due to demographics, plus many of the Hispanic counties still went for Obama (which is a promising sign for that prediction), and the big cities mainly swung to Romney because a lot of the conservatives who didn't vote in 08 at all (due to McCain's moderate positions) voted in 12 and went heavily for Romney.

I'm shocked you thought Dallas was conservative, it really isn't a conservative city at all, it's suburbs are.

I've never been to Dallas, but I've been to Houston. All I ever heard was that Houston was more diverse and had more of a Hispanic feel, while Dallas had more of a cowboy culture, so I figured it was more conservative. I guess I also forgot to realize that the Dallas metro as a whole may be more conservative that Houston, but Dallas county is just much more urban than Harris which contains the city of Houston as well as a lot of suburbs.


You're right about Houston being more diverse, it feels like LA or Chicago than it does Texas. But Dallas is diverse too.
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minionofmidas - supplemental forum account
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« Reply #9 on: December 07, 2012, 04:59:25 am »

It seems like the big swings in rural texas were in corn/oil/gas areas, while the swings in the utterly useless counties near NM were smaller (some even swung D!)
Lots of Hispanics but lots of Whites as well, including lots of traditionally Republican Hispanics. Least surprising swing in Texas.



And yes, Obama still got some of the redneck vote in NE Texas in 2008, and quite possibly in 2012.
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BaldEagle1991
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« Reply #10 on: December 07, 2012, 09:21:03 am »

It seems like the big swings in rural texas were in corn/oil/gas areas, while the swings in the utterly useless counties near NM were smaller (some even swung D!)
Lots of Hispanics but lots of Whites as well, including lots of traditionally Republican Hispanics. Least surprising swing in Texas.



And yes, Obama still got some of the redneck vote in NE Texas in 2008, and quite possibly in 2012.


There's a lot of Cubans over in that region you guys are talking about.
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The Mikado
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« Reply #11 on: December 07, 2012, 05:04:59 pm »

What's with the surprise?  Obama hit what was effectively the ceiling a Democrat can do in Texas in 2008 due to the unique circumstances, especially his and Clinton's lengthy primary campaign forcing them to build up campaign infrastructure in a state they otherwise never would have.  Obama's 2012 result in Texas is him returning to the mean: his ~42% is basically what a Democrat is supposed to get in Texas.  The Texas Democratic Party (an institution I'm actually very, very personally familiar with) is a corpse.  It has no electioneering mechanism to speak of.  Without Obama's own 2008 machine, there's nothing to see here.
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bore
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« Reply #12 on: December 07, 2012, 05:15:59 pm »

The texas trend map has got a really nice level of symmetry around Dallas.
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Blackacre
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« Reply #13 on: December 07, 2012, 06:22:28 pm »

What's with the surprise?  Obama hit what was effectively the ceiling a Democrat can do in Texas in 2008 due to the unique circumstances, especially his and Clinton's lengthy primary campaign forcing them to build up campaign infrastructure in a state they otherwise never would have.  Obama's 2012 result in Texas is him returning to the mean: his ~42% is basically what a Democrat is supposed to get in Texas.  The Texas Democratic Party (an institution I'm actually very, very personally familiar with) is a corpse.  It has no electioneering mechanism to speak of.  Without Obama's own 2008 machine, there's nothing to see here.

Do you think someone could make Texas a swing state by giving the TDP an electioneering mechanism that works?
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The Mikado
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« Reply #14 on: December 07, 2012, 09:20:53 pm »

Texas will eventually become more competitive, but it's a far more long-term prospect than most people assume.  Much of the blame for that is that the Texas Democrats are in no position to capitalize on changing demographics: the party has a serious dearth of serious statewide candidates, it has a very small number of state legislators to use as a bench for up and comers, and the party itself is effectively owned by old white trial lawyers who are only Democrats because the GOP is the party of tort reform.  In addition, the demographic shifts aren't as reflected in voting patterns as one might assume because a large number of Texas Hispanics are either A. not U.S. citizens, or B. under 18.  Furthermore, especially among older Hispanics and first generation immigrants from Mexico, Mexico's rather depressing political culture engenders a degree of skepticism about voting: for many decades, Mexico's one-party PRI regime made it so that voting was something that would, at best, serve as an opportunity to receive a bribe and at worst would only serve to bring you to the attention of the authorities.  Obviously, that's begun to change in the last decade or so, and younger Hispanics born in the US are much more friendly to the voting system, but especially in the Valley, low voter turnout is the rule, not the exception.

Basically, yes, I think Texas is going to get closer, but it's going to be a much, much slower process than many think. 
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badgate
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« Reply #15 on: December 07, 2012, 09:51:48 pm »

Denton county (one of the depressingly blue ones directly north of Dallas county) is where most of the evangelicals live now...Dallas county's pretty diverse, to say the least.
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BaldEagle1991
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« Reply #16 on: December 08, 2012, 10:58:19 am »

Denton county (one of the depressingly blue ones directly north of Dallas county) is where most of the evangelicals live now...Dallas county's pretty diverse, to say the least.

I thought that was Collin County? Denton County is somewhat of a diverse college county, with many ranchers in the outskirts affecting it's outcome.
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Clamdick McClaw
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« Reply #17 on: December 08, 2012, 01:30:10 pm »

Even Travis is trending GOP?  As if my opinion of TX could get any lower...
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The Mikado
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« Reply #18 on: December 08, 2012, 03:30:22 pm »

Even Travis is trending GOP?  As if my opinion of TX could get any lower...

Of course Travis is trending GOP: Obama got every vote he could possibly get there in 2008.  2012 is his falling back to where a Democrat should perform in Texas.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #19 on: December 08, 2012, 03:37:27 pm »

and the party itself is effectively owned by old white trial lawyers who are only Democrats because the GOP is the party of tort reform.

I laughed slightly too much at this.
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Ty440
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« Reply #20 on: December 08, 2012, 04:11:53 pm »

Denton county (one of the depressingly blue ones directly north of Dallas county) is where most of the evangelicals live now...Dallas county's pretty diverse, to say the least.

I always thought of Denton county and the suburbs around Dallas as ground zero for white evangelical Christians living in their McMansions, is there anywhere else in the country that has a greater concentration, maybe suburban Atlanta?
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old timey villain
cope1989
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« Reply #21 on: December 08, 2012, 06:21:09 pm »

Denton county (one of the depressingly blue ones directly north of Dallas county) is where most of the evangelicals live now...Dallas county's pretty diverse, to say the least.

I always thought of Denton county and the suburbs around Dallas as ground zero for white evangelical Christians living in their McMansions, is there anywhere else in the country that has a greater concentration, maybe suburban Atlanta?

Yes, North Fulton specifically. There is a huge mega church in Alpharetta called North Point that has at least 10,000 members. The area is very wealthy and well educated but it's remained very conservative partly because of the evangelical culture there. But it's more Colorado Springs than Bible Belt religiosity.

Houston would also count too. Joel Osteen's church is there and it's massive. And then of course you have Orange County, CA....
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Sbane
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« Reply #22 on: December 08, 2012, 07:23:45 pm »

Southern suburbia is way more evangelical, mega church central. Orange County and the Inland Empire has some of it but southern suburbia is more...pure....
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BaldEagle1991
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« Reply #23 on: December 10, 2012, 08:45:30 pm »

Denton county (one of the depressingly blue ones directly north of Dallas county) is where most of the evangelicals live now...Dallas county's pretty diverse, to say the least.

I always thought of Denton county and the suburbs around Dallas as ground zero for white evangelical Christians living in their McMansions, is there anywhere else in the country that has a greater concentration, maybe suburban Atlanta?

Yes, North Fulton specifically. There is a huge mega church in Alpharetta called North Point that has at least 10,000 members. The area is very wealthy and well educated but it's remained very conservative partly because of the evangelical culture there. But it's more Colorado Springs than Bible Belt religiosity.

Houston would also count too. Joel Osteen's church is there and it's massive. And then of course you have Orange County, CA....


Joel Osteen really isn't a real minister, he's just a motivational speaker who says "Jesus" like once or twice. 

Houston's suburbs are majority evangelical, but are becoming less and less so with immigration.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #24 on: December 10, 2012, 08:58:12 pm »

There's a lot of Travis County that's very Republican, especially the western parts which are white suburbs. A Democrat can't really get much more than Obama did in 2008 there.

For a Democrat to win Texas, two things need to happen that are not happening right now: 1) Hispanics have to turn out a lot more, which is a problem of both the Texas Democratic party being underfunded and incompetent AND the Texan Hispanic population being disproportionately under-18 and non-citizen and 2) Democrats have to do significantly better with whites than Obama did.

Mikado's description of the TX Democratic Party is also very true. IIRC, our Senate candidate against Ted Cruz was a member of this class.
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