South African local by-elections

[Hash]

I should have started this long ago, but there's always a good number of local ward by-elections in SA every month or so, so it's never too late.

December 5

Ward 22; Lukhanji (Queenstown) Municipality, EC

ANC 64.29%
DA 32.8%
UDM 1.85%
PDP 0.68%
PAM 0.39%

Ward 22 includes some Coloured and black lower-income areas south of Queenstown proper, including a few parts of largely Coloured Aloevale and parts of heavily black (Xhosa) Mlungisi. The black areas include some 'informal' housing (read: slums and shacks) but other parts of the ward have 'formal' housing (read: smaller houses) and they're perhaps not as poor as other areas (in that they have water and toilets). The Coloured areas voted around 60%ish for the DA, while the only purely black VD voted around 90% for the ANC.

In 2009, the ANC got around two-thirds of the vote against 19% for COPE and some 8-10% for DA.

The by-election is contested by the ANC, DA, COPE and the PAC.

Ward 12; Setsoto (Senekal) Municipality, FS

ANC 85.65%
DA 8.76%
COPE 4.48%
VF+ 0.86%
DPSA 0.26%

Covers part of Meqheleng, a large and 99% black township (pop 25,900 in all) located just south of Ficksburg, one of the main towns in the Free State and the gateway to Lesotho (right across the river). Meqheleng is dirt poor, literally. Most people live in shacks.

2009 GE: ANC 89.2%, COPE 7%, DA 0.9%

The by-election is contested by the ANC, DA, COPE and some other party.

Ward 39; eThekwini (Durban Metro) Municipality, KZN

IFP 34.18%
ANC 33.94%
NPF 29.45%
DA 1%
TA 0.34%
MF 0.22%
AZAPO 0.14%
UDM 0.13%
ACA 0.08%
UAF 0.08%
COPE 0.06%
ACDP 0.06%
SGC 0.01%

This Durban ward includes parts of a heavily black (Zulu) township (Ekuthuleni). Most of the housing here is "informal" (shacks). The IFP held this seat in a close three-way race (but the ANC won the PR vote in the ward), it is the only ward still held by the IFP in KwaMashu.

2009 GE: IFP 59%, ANC 39.4%, DA 0.3%

The by-election is contested by the ANC, IFP and NFP (fun!).

Ward 72; eThekwini (Durban Metro) Municipality, KZN

ANC 45.95%
MF 23.94%
DA 21.44%
NFP 2.72%
IFP 2.07%
TA 1.32%
ACDP 1.23%
COPE 0.35%
ACA 0.32%
APC 0.2%
UDM 0.19%
AZAPO 0.09%
VF+ 0.09%
UAF 0.06%

Very interesting and racially divided ward. In the eastern half of the ward is Risecliff, a heavily Indian (95%) area of around 16.5k people, while the western half includes predominantly black Demat and a bunch of traditional/informal townships/tracts in the hills. Risecliff is pretty comfortable by SA standards. The ward was closely fought, but at the VD level there is a very big contrast: the black hilly parts were about 90% ANC, while the DA and MF split the vote (slight edge to the MF) in Risecliff with the ANC polling only 3-10% or so.

The by-election is contested by the ANC, DA, IFP and NFP. I wonder if the DA can gain this ward without a MF candidate, given that the MF vote flows to the DA in such cases.

2009 GE (different, more black, boundaries): ANC 65.2%, DA 18.2%, MF 7.4%, COPE 3.3%, IFP 3%

Ward 2; Hlabisa (Somkele) Municipality, KZN

NFP 37.12%
IFP 33.43%
ANC 29.44%

This ward covers the main town of Hlabisa in Hlabisa Municipality, a rural Zulu area in norteastern KZN near the Umfolozi nature reserve. The IFP won 8 seats in the local council in 2011, against 4 each for the NFP and ANC. This ward was the only ward won by the NFP, which is a new IFP splinter party.

The by-election is contested by the ANC, NFP, IFP and some indie.

2009 GE result was about 56% IFP, 41.5% ANC.

Ward 4; Nkandla Municipality, KZN

ANC 49.78%
IFP 40.49%
NFP 9.74%

Very rural and 100% Zulu area in the hills. Nkandla has probably become one of SA's most famous municipalities now, however, because Jacob 'The Spear' Zuma has his big personal compound/mansion/palace in Nkandla, and it has made headlines in recent weeks because Zuma has gotten the state (well, the ANC and the state are one and the same now) to pay for some huge renovations/additions to his compound. Helen Zille went there to cause some havoc, but she couldn't approach. As usual, the ANC has basically said that those who complain about the compound are all racists.

The ANC gained this ward from the IFP in 2011. The IFP still controls Nkandla municipality though.

The by-election is contested by the ANC, NFP, IFP and some indie.

Ward 2; Bitou (Greater Plettenberg Bay) Municipality, WC

DA 95.17%
ANC 3.19%
ACDP 1.14%
COPE 0.34%
Cape 0.17%

Change of scenery! This ward is whiteyland, including the 95% white (around 64% English) parts of the coastal tourist town of Plettenberg Bay in the WC. Predictably, guess who lives in breathtaking scenic locations overlooking the sea? White people! So there's a bunch of really big houses, and also a few country clubs and enclosed compounds for scared crackers. There is a small black slum in the ward, so the 3% of ANC votes comes from there.

Contested by the DA and some indie with an Afrikaner name.

A by-election in Ward 3 (Msukaligwa/Ermelo in MP) is a ANC hold without opposition.
 
Results tomorrow.

[Hash]

Ward 3 -- Msukaligwa (Ermelo) Municipality, MP

ANC unopposed

hold

Ward 22 -- Lukhanji (Queenstown) Municipality, EC

ANC 54.68% (-9.61%)
DA 43.88% (+11.08%)
COPE 1.12%
PAC 0.03%

hold

Ward 12 -- Setsoto (Senekal) Municipality, FS

ANC 81.44% (-4.21%)
DA 14.66% (+5.9%)
COPE 3.48% (-1%)
DPSA 0.04% (-0.22%)

hold

Ward 39 -- eThekwini (Durban Metro) Municipality, KZN

IFP 70.21% (+36.03%)
ANC 18.23% (-15.71%)
NFP 11.56% (-17.89%)

hold

Ward 72 -- eThekwini (Durban Metro) Municipality, KZN

ANC 53.35% (+7.4%)
DA 40.55% (+19.11%)
IFP 3.84% (+1.77%)
NFP 2.26% (-0.46%)

hold

Ward 2 -- Hlabisa (Somkele) Municipality, KZN

IFP 33.8% (+0.37%)
NFP 33.12% (-4%)
ANC 33.08% (+3.64%)

IFP GAIN

Ward 4 -- Nkandla Municipality, KZN

IFP 54.99% (+14.5%)
ANC 33.33% (-16.45%)
NFP 6.54% (-3.2%)
Ind 5.13%

IFP GAIN

Ward 2 -- Bitou (Greater Plettenberg Bay) Municipality, WC

DA 91.56% (-3.61%)
Ind 8.44%

hold

[Gary J]

Modern South Africa seems to have a pretty polarised electorate. Once you know the demographics, the likely winner is pretty obvious in most areas. Not much sign of rainbow politics in the rainbow nation.

[politicus]

Modern South Africa seems to have a pretty polarised electorate. Once you know the demographics, the likely winner is pretty obvious in most areas. Not much sign of rainbow politics in the rainbow nation.

Unsurprising given its apartheid foundation and the rainbow nation was always a myth.
Only chance of a genuine multiparty competition nationwide is if a viable left wing alternative to the ANC evolves from the union movement.

[Kitteh]

Modern South Africa seems to have a pretty polarised electorate. Once you know the demographics, the likely winner is pretty obvious in most areas. Not much sign of rainbow politics in the rainbow nation.

Unsurprising given its apartheid foundation and the rainbow nation was always a myth.
Only chance of a genuine multiparty competition nationwide is if a viable left wing alternative to the ANC evolves from the union movement.

Or a pseudo-left populist party led by Julius Malema and his people. Your option would be much preferable though.

[Kitteh]

So Mangosuthu Buthelezi is in the media today talking up the results of these by-elections as a sign of the revival of the IFP:
http://mg.co.za/article/2012-12-08-ifp-gaining-pace-and-support-after-winning-nkandla-by-election

These results were fairly good for the IFP all things considered. They've been declining constantly since 1994, so the fact that they gained votes in every one of the by-elections they contested is relatively good for them. Maybe the problems that the ANC is having is slowing the downward slide of the IFP. I'd still expect them to get less in 2014 than in 2009, because of the emergence of the NFP, but I wouldn't be surprised if the IFP and NFP combined get more in 2014 than the IFP did in 2009.

[politicus]

Is there any ideological difference between IFP and NFP, or is it just Zanele kaMagwaza-Msibis personal vendetta against the IFP?

[Kitteh]

Is there any ideological difference between IFP and NFP, or is it just Zanele kaMagwaza-Msibis personal vendetta against the IFP?

Neither the IFP nor the NFP have any ideology whatsoever, beyond some sort of "Zulu nationalism" that is completely meaningless nowadays. The NFP was founded as you say because of the fact that Zanele kaMagwaza-Msibis lost the IFP leadership race and got mad about that. In terms of actual government, the NFP is notable only because it generally prefers to work with the ANC rather than the IFP (they're in coalition in a number of municipalities where the vote was split btw ANC, IFP, and NFP in 2011).

[Hash]

January 30 by-elections

uMnegni/Howick, KZN - Ward 5
DA 82.88% (+2%)
ANC 17.12% (-0.24%)

DA hold

Heavily white (English) suburban ward in Howick, town located near Pietermaritzburg. DA won 99% in the two white polls, the ANC won 95% in the smaller rural black poll.

Cape Town, WC - Ward 22
DA 77.02% (-3.81%)
ANC 19.81% (+7.94%)
COPE 2.8% (+2.02%)
NFP 0.23% (+0.23%)
UDM 0.14% (-0.26%)

DA hold

Heavily coloured middle-class or lower-income ward in Belhar. ANC won 21% in one poll, and 67% in Modderdam - a majority black shantytown area outside Belhar; it won low single digits in every other poll.

Witzenberg/Ceres, WC - Ward 10
ANC 41.93% (+3.27%)
Daniels - Ind. 28.89%
DA 23.39% (-24.15%)
Davids -Ind. 2.45%
Botha - Ind. 2.33%
NFP 1.02%

ANC gain from DA

Mountains, a rural and agricultural farming valley and a small (black?) shanty-town (likely for farm workers) outside Prince Alfred Hamlet make up this ward. It is predominantly coloured. The DA gained the seat from the ANC in 2011, but the DA councillor defected and since the ghastly 'floor crossing window' legislation was scrapped 4-5 years ago, defectors need to resign their seats. The defector in question ran for the ANC again and won, helped by the division of the non-ANC vote with 3 independents. It is more significant than it seems: the DA might lose its narrow majority (through a coalition) in Witzenberg; and the result is a momentum-booster for the ANC in WC. The DA is alleging that the ANC is playing dirty tricks in the WC by funding ongoing farm violence. Yet, the ANC's spin on this was quite something.

[Hash]

6 by-elections being held today - 2011 results + racial stats

Merafong (Carletonville), GT - Ward 28
DA 62.7%
ANC 32.45%
VF+ 2.53%
Others below 1%

Race (2011): Black 55.8%, White 41.4%, Indian 1.2%, Coloured 1.1%

Carletonville is an historically Afrikaner mining town, traditionally a more white working-class town rather than the usual 'very rich white people' but still pretty middle-class by South African standards. Carletonville was a KP stronghold.

Candidates: ANC, DA

Vulamehlo (Dududu), KZN - Ward 7
ANC 72.39%
IFP 22.03%
NFP 4.9%
ACDP 0.68%

Race (2011): Black 97.8%, White 0.8%, Indian 0.7%, Coloured 0.6%

Large rural Zulu ward.

Candidates: ANC, IFP, NFP

Lephalale (Ellisras), LIM - Ward 6
ANC 95.19%
COPE 3.13%
DA 0.96%
UDM 0.54%
PAC 0.18%

Race (2011): Black 99.3%, White 0.2%, Indian 0.2%

Covers the town of Ga-Shongwane

Candidates: ANC, APC, COPE

Emalahleni (Witbank), MP - Ward 34
DA 72.07%
ANC 25.54%
VF+ 1.66%
All others below 1%

Race (2011): White 60.7%, Black 34.1%, Indian 2.6%, Coloured 1.7%

Covers white and very affluent neighborhoods of Witbank (Afrikaner coal mining town, historically), including a bunch of McMansions on Witbank Dam and the usual mix of compounds and fenced-in houses. The DA won over 90-95% of the vote in all but one precinct, where the ANC won 91% (it includes a big black shantytown).

Candidates: DA, VF+

Magareng (Warrenton), NC - Ward 4
ANC 62.21%
DA 27.44%
COPE 10.36%

Race (2011): Black 51.3%, Coloured 44.7%, White 2.7%, Indian 0.7%

Covers parts of Warrenton.

Candidates: Ind, ACDP, ANC, DA, PAC

Stellenbosch, WC - Ward 22
DA 95.64%
ANC 1.43%
ACDP 1.26%
VF+ 1.01%
Others below 1%

Race (2011): White 75.6%, Coloured 11.3%, Black 10.1%, Indian 0.9%

Stellenbosch is the town of the Afrikaner intelligentsia, home to the big Stellenbosch University (a large Afrikaans university). The ward is located south of downtown and the main campus; it is highly educated, the definition of "privileged whites" in RSA.

Candidates: ANC, DA, Stellenbosch Civic Association

[Filuwaúrdjan]

ANC gain Stellenbosch 22, amirite?

[Hash]

Merafong (Carletonville), GT - Ward 28
DA 67.35% (+4.65%)
ANC 32.45% (+0.2%)

t/o: 45.38%

Vulamehlo (Dududu), KZN - Ward 7
ANC 79.47% (+7.08%)
IFP 16.47% (-5.56%)
NFP 4.06% (-0.84%)

t/o: 53.01%

Lephalale (Ellisras), LIM - Ward 6
ANC 86.44% (-8.75%)
COPE 11.86% (+8.73%)
PAC 1.69% (+1.51%)

t/o: 28.63%

Emalahleni (Witbank), MP - Ward 34
DA 96.67% (+24.6%)
VF+ 3.33% (+1.67%)

t/o: 25.16%

8% turnout in the black precinct, VF+ wins its highest percentage of any precinct there (7.5%)

Magareng (Warrenton), NC - Ward 4
ANC 58.14% (-4.07%)
DA 38.82% (+11.38%)
Ockhuys - Ind 1.69%
Homophobes 0.93%
PAC 0.41%

t/o: 55.78%

Stellenbosch, WC - Ward 22
DA 98.9% (+3.26%)
SCA 0.75%
ANC 0.34% (-1.09%)

t/o: 36.94%

5 votes for the ANC!

[Obamanation]

I'm not a fan of the ANC. Looking forward to the day the don't hold hegemony over South African politics.

[Kitteh]

I'm not a fan of the ANC. Looking forward to the day the don't hold hegemony over South African politics.

Their replacement is more likely to be worse than better, sadly.

[Dereich]

Magareng (Warrenton), NC - Ward 4
ANC 58.14% (-4.07%)
DA 38.82% (+11.38%)
Ockhuys - Ind 1.69%
Homophobes 0.93%
PAC 0.41%

t/o: 55.78%

Is this the DA starting to consolidate the Coloured vote or anti-ANC voters having nowhere else to go?

[Kosmos]

Why did this thread die? Things were just getting interesting.

DA reaching impressive results in black majority wards in Limpopo, North West and KwaZulu-Natal for instance.

And an IFP victory in an Mpumalanga ward (this is quite unusual as IFP is a heavily regional party)

Magareng (Warrenton), NC - Ward 4
ANC 58.14% (-4.07%)
DA 38.82% (+11.38%)
Ockhuys - Ind 1.69%
Homophobes 0.93%
PAC 0.41%

t/o: 55.78%

Is this the DA starting to consolidate the Coloured vote or anti-ANC voters having nowhere else to go?

The DA's big gain in that particular NC ward came from former COPE voters. COPE for some reason decided not to contest the by-election.

[Kosmos]

Okay, I'll try doing a summary of results of the 27 november by-elections. I don't have the racial census data unfortunately, but perhaps PASOK can help me out with that?

Ward 5 -- Kouga Municipality, EC

DA 57.76% (+2.04%)
ANC 42.24% (-1.52%)

hold

Ward 9 -- Kouga Municipality, EC

ANC 55.96% (-8.99%)
DA 44.04% (+10.32%)

hold

DA clearly pushed ANC hard here, but they managed to retain the ward despite losses. Both parties had campaigned very strongly as a DA victory in both wards had enabled them to take over Kouga (which ANC governs on a slim 15-14 majority). Now that did not happen.

Ward 2 -- Mnquma Municipality, EC

ANC 47.21% (-1.86%)
UDM 26.96% (+16.74%)
DA 20.40% (+11.58%)
PAC 5.44% (+4.20%)

hold

Interesting ward with strong opposition. In 2011 COPE had been the largest opposition party with 25%, but they they did not contest now and the party's voters went to UDM and DA instead. DA managed a nice increase in what I assume is a black majority ward, though the ANC held firm: the growth did not come from there.

Ward 13 -- Nkonkobe Municipality, EC

ANC 97.63% (+1.66%)
PAC 2.37% (+1.62%)

hold

Ward 18 -- Nala Municipality, FS

ANC unopposed

hold

Ward 96 -- Ekurhuleni (East Rand Metro) Municipality, GP

ANC 65.27% (-17.81%)
Ind 28.02%
NFP 3.44% (+2.09%)
IFP 1.65% (+0.09%)
PAC 1.41% (+0.93%)
ACDP 0.21% (-0.08%)

hold

Ward 12 -- Emfuleni Municipality, GP

ANC 86.11% (-1.22%)
PAC 13.89% (+8.17%)

hold

The only serious opposition to the ANC in the GP wards came from an independent (though PAC managed a decent result in the Emfuleni ward). DA for some reason did not field candidates, despite their loudly stated ambition to win Gauteng next year.

Ward 70 -- eThekwini (Durban Metro) Municipality, KZN

DA 57.95% (+24.47%)
ANC 25.15% (+15.76%)
MF 10.03% (-33.72%)
ACDP 4.24% (-3.80%)
COPE 1.63%
IFP 1.00% (-0.60%)

DA GAIN

This is an indian majority ward. The Minority Front has as far as I understand traditionally held strong support in Chatsworth and Phoenix, indian-dominated areas of Durban, and they won this ward with 43% in 2011. But the death of party patriarch Rajbansi has led to open infighting in the party and they may be heading for political oblivion.

The DA candidate was the previous MF councillor for ward 70, who resigned to stand for the DA. The MF faired disastrously, needless to mention, and DA won the ward convincingly. ANC however did increase its support by a large margin as well.

I'll do the rest of the wards another day.

[Hash]

By-elections on July 2, 2014:

EC:
ANC holds Ntabankulu LM Ward 16 - 99.8% black - with 60.3% (t/o 35%) vs. one indie candidate, down from 98.3% in 2011 and 94.3% in 2014 NE. Poor, rural, very isolated Transkei hills villages.

Gauteng:
DA holds Ekurhuleni Ward 20 - 55.6% white, 27% black - with 97.3% (t/o 27.3%) vs. ANC, up from 84.8% in 2011 and 77.4% in 2014 NE. Predominantly affluent white suburbs of Germiston.

DA holds Ekurhuleni Ward 24 - 64.8% black, 32.3% white - with 55.4% (t/o 31.2%) vs. ANC (37.6%) and NFP, up from 46.9% in 2011 and 41% in 2014 NE. Mixed area including predominantly black middle-class suburb of Crystal Park (marginally ANC: 45% vs 37% DA in 2014), heavily black township (solidly ANC), white compounds (solidly DA) and white estates (guess).

DA holds Ekurhuleni Ward 92 - 57.1% white, 32.8% black - with 92.1% (t/o 22.6%) vs. ANC, up from 83.7% in 2011 and 75.5% in 2014 NE. Predominantly white suburbs of Boksburg/Germiston except one poor black working-class area.

ANC holds Randfontein LM Ward 11 - 89% black, 9.7% white - with 82.4% (t/o 28.2%) vs. DA, down from 85.7% in 2011 up from 75% in 2014 NE. Located outside the Tswana township of Mohlakeng, including a small slice thereof.

DA holds Johannesburg Ward 57 - 56.5% black, 26.4% white, 11.2% Coloured, 5% Indian - with 66.1% (t/o 22.2%) vs. ANC, up from 58.2% in 2011 and 49.3% in 2014 NE. Racially diverse lower-income or middle-class suburbs in Joburg's southern suburbs (La Rochelle and Regent Park are black, others are white/Coloured with some blacks)

ANC gains Johannesburg Ward 58 - 42.6% Indian, 37.1% black, 7.7% Coloured, 6.6% white - from DA with 35.4% against 31.9% (DA) and 27.3% (indie, presumably Indian), t/o 22.2%. ANC down from 41.9%, DA down from 48.7% in 2011. Down from 43% and 36.7% in 2014 NE respectively. Includes the Indian neighborhoods (large Muslim population) of Mayfair and Mayfair West, and black central neighborhoods of Fordsburg and Vrededorp.

DA holds Johannesburg Ward 112 - 53.6% black, 21.8% white, 20.2% Indian - with 78% (t/o 17.6%), up from 61.7% in 2011 and 48.4% in 2014 NE. Rapidly-growing northern suburbs in Midrand, largely new affluent suburbs and gated communities with a majority black (affluent new middle-class - also the type of urban educated upwardly mobile blacks who identify English as their home language) population and large Indian and white minorities. The large gated community (pop over 4,000) of Kyalami Estate is 61% white.

DA holds Johannesburg Ward 118 - 57.1% black, 25.7% white, 9.8% Indian, 5.6% Coloured - with 75.2% (t/o 19.7%) vs. ANC/NFP/IFP, up from 59.8% in 2011 and 46.9% in 2014 NE. Polarized ward between majority-minority middle-class suburbs and heavily black low-income area (Malvern).

KZN:
DA holds eThekwini (Durban) Ward 18 - 54.8% white, 29.4% black, 12.2% Indian - with 91.2% (t/o 27.4%) up from 77.5% in 2011 and 64.5% in 2014 NE. Includes central Pinetown and some of its leafy white suburbs in the hills.

DA holds eThekwini (Durban) Ward 36 - 56% white, 25.2% black, 14% Indian - with 94.6% (t/o 31.4%) up from 84.4% in 2011 and 78.1% in 2014 NE. Predominantly white affluent suburbs and oceanfront areas in Durban North (minus a tiny but very densely populated black shantytown)

DA gains eThekwini (Durban) Ward 52 - 83% Indian, 14.3% black - from MF with 54.4% vs. ANC (29.9%) and MF (15.6%), t/o 25.9%. Was 37.9% MF, 35.1% DA, 19.2% ANC in 2011. 61% DA in 2014 NE. Indian area of Phoenix in the north of the metro. MF defector to DA reelected.

DA gains eThekwini (Durban) Ward 73 - 92.6% Indian - from MF with 70.6% vs. MF (17%) and ANC (12.5%), t/o 23.8%. Was 50.7% MF to 31.6% DA in 2011. 76% DA in 2014 NE. Indian area of Chatsworth.

ANC holds Endumeni (Dundee) Ward 4.

IFP holds Hlabisa Ward 6.

DA holds KwaDukuza (Stanger) Ward 22 (42.1% white, 31.3% black, 24.3% Indian)

Mpumalanga:
DA holds Emalahleni (Witbank) Ward 18 - 69% white, 27% black - with 91.2% (t/o 25.1%), up from 85.8% in 2011 and 67.4% in 2014 NE. Predominantly white suburb of Witbank.

DA holds Govan Mbeki LM (Highveld Ridge) Ward 30 - 82% white, 11.6% black - with 92.4% (t/o 21.7%), up from 84.8% in 2011 and 76.2% in 2014 NE. Covers part of the heavily Afrikaner town of Secunda (new town built in late 1970s for a coal liquefaction plant).

NC:

ANC gains Kai !Garib Ward 9 from COPE (76.2% Coloured)

WC:

DA holds Knysna Ward 5 (63.9% Coloured, 26.9% white)

No time to fully complete this - are people interested by this, or is this too nerdy?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It's pretty fascinating, so...

[Jens]

Keep it coming - I'm very interested in SA politics

[Kosmos]

Is SA beginning to see race replaced by class-based voting? I am thinking of the relatively strong DA vote in the predominantly black middle-class area.

Another thing that strikes me is that EFF is really in a position to seriously hurt the ANC in some of these mixed-race wards, by splitting the vote and allowing DA to win. But since they dislike both parties, perhaps that is why EFF has yet to contest any by-elections?

[Kosmos]

United Democratic Movement (UDM) have won a by-election against the ANC in Nelson Mandela Bay. Quite a surprising development, and suggests that next year's local elections will be tough for the governing party in the Bay.

[BundouYMB]

United Democratic Movement (UDM) have won a by-election against the ANC in Nelson Mandela Bay. Quite a surprising development, and suggests that next year's local elections will be tough for the governing party in the Bay.

The DA is also in trouble...

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Worth noting that UDM basically only exists in the Eastern Cape ... although, yes, if the Zuma government carries on as it is, the locals may turn into a bloodbath for the ANC especially in the big unitary councils that control the major cities (Port Elizabeth, Johannesburg, Pretoria, Durban, East London etc.).

[Kosmos]

I missed this development, an unusual by-election held in november.

In ward 32 in Mogalakwena (Mokopane/Potgietersrus), the DA retained their ward with a reduced plurality of 43%, down from about 59% in 2011. The VF+ increase from 9% to 32%. They are usually not a threat to the DA in ward elections, but they did well here.

The VF+ candidate was apparantly the former DA councillor, which might have contributed. But there has been signs of them losing right wing/conservative support for some time. Last year, when Zille still led the party, 3 DA MPs defected to the VF+ before the 2014 election.

Are these exceptions or part of a larger trend?