Redistricting vicous cycle

[Mehmentum]

If one party has a huge landslide in the redistricting year, like what happened for Republicans in 2010, they would get control of redistricting for not only the U.S house, but state Senate and House races.

That means that, if they had an effective gerrymander, they could get a huge advantage in the State House and Senate.  This advantage would mean that they would be more likely to have control of redistricting next decade and again draw the districts favorably to them and so on...

Do we see this in practice, if only in a single state, or is this just a hypothetical scenario?

[Blackacre]

My liberal fantasy is a reverse 2010 in 2020 (COMPLETE Democratic sweep). The Dems then use their redistricting power to impose a nonpartisan, math-based redistricting solution on every state which would be in place forever. Gerrymandering dies, problem solved.

[DC Al Fine]

My liberal fantasy is a reverse 2010 in 2020 (COMPLETE Democratic sweep). The Dems then use their redistricting power to impose a nonpartisan, math-based pro Democrat redistricting solution on every state which would be in place forever. Gerrymandering dies, problem solved.

That is what would really happen.

[Blackacre]

My liberal fantasy is a reverse 2010 in 2020 (COMPLETE Democratic sweep). The Dems then use their redistricting power to impose a nonpartisan, math-based pro Democrat redistricting solution on every state which would be in place forever. Gerrymandering dies, problem solved.

That is what would really happen.

That's why I said "my liberal fantasy". Nate Silver types would lead the charge, along with the Dems who love bipartisanship. The Dems who were burned by unfairness in our electorate (2000 presidential election, two decades of Republican gerrymandering) force everyone else to not go partisan, with aid from Republicans who would benefit from the nonpartisan solution. (and finally, DC would pick up a seat in Congress, because it's MY liberal fantasy, so why not xD)

[DC Al Fine]

My liberal fantasy is a reverse 2010 in 2020 (COMPLETE Democratic sweep). The Dems then use their redistricting power to impose a nonpartisan, math-based pro Democrat redistricting solution on every state which would be in place forever. Gerrymandering dies, problem solved.

That is what would really happen.

That's why I said "my liberal fantasy". Nate Silver types would lead the charge, along with the Dems who love bipartisanship. The Dems who were burned by unfairness in our electorate (2000 presidential election, two decades of Republican gerrymandering) force everyone else to not go partisan, with aid from Republicans who would benefit from the nonpartisan solution. (and finally, DC would pick up a seat in Congress, because it's MY liberal fantasy, so why not xD)

Fair enough. Although usually, my fantasies involve everyone agreeing with me and electing me President for Life

[Blackacre]

My liberal fantasy is a reverse 2010 in 2020 (COMPLETE Democratic sweep). The Dems then use their redistricting power to impose a nonpartisan, math-based pro Democrat redistricting solution on every state which would be in place forever. Gerrymandering dies, problem solved.

That is what would really happen.

That's why I said "my liberal fantasy". Nate Silver types would lead the charge, along with the Dems who love bipartisanship. The Dems who were burned by unfairness in our electorate (2000 presidential election, two decades of Republican gerrymandering) force everyone else to not go partisan, with aid from Republicans who would benefit from the nonpartisan solution. (and finally, DC would pick up a seat in Congress, because it's MY liberal fantasy, so why not xD)

Fair enough. Although usually, my fantasies involve everyone agreeing with me and electing me President for Life

So you wanna be FDR?

[Person Man]

Well, if they continue to win by cheating,  they will go so mad with power that they go off the deep end and subsequently lose by a margin so big that they can't even win by cheating. i.e. The Bush Years.- Won by cheating, birds came back to roost.

[Donerail]

[Skill and Chance]

Well, if they continue to win by cheating,  they will go so mad with power that they go off the deep end and subsequently lose by a margin so big that they can't even win by cheating. i.e. The Bush Years.- Won by cheating, birds came back to roost.

Well Bush won on a technicality, not by cheating.  Unless you consider different election laws in different states to be cheating, but then you could argue anything closer than 2008 was "stolen."

If Democrats won huge in 2018-20, I'm not sure you would see them redistrict quite as aggressively as Republicans did this time.  There seem to be more people on the left who just don't like gerrymandering, period.  There was opposition to the MD map on the left, for example.  Not to mention that their state legislative majorities would be built by people who won in Lean R districts and might not even want a 58% Obama seat because of the primary.

However, they could amend VRA Section 2 to include Evangelical Christians as a protected class.  That would require drawing R+30 districts all over the place.  People like Michele Bachmann would probably support it, so it wouldn't even look partisan.

[Blackacre]

Well, if they continue to win by cheating,  they will go so mad with power that they go off the deep end and subsequently lose by a margin so big that they can't even win by cheating. i.e. The Bush Years.- Won by cheating, birds came back to roost.

Well Bush won on a technicality, not by cheating.  Unless you consider different election laws in different states to be cheating, but then you could argue anything closer than 2008 was "stolen."

If Democrats won huge in 2018-20, I'm not sure you would see them redistrict quite as aggressively as Republicans did this time.  There seem to be more people on the left who just don't like gerrymandering, period.  There was opposition to the MD map on the left, for example.  Not to mention that their state legislative majorities would be built by people who won in Lean R districts and might not even want a 58% Obama seat because of the primary.

However, they could amend VRA Section 2 to include Evangelical Christians as a protected class.  That would require drawing R+30 districts all over the place.  People like Michele Bachmann would probably support it, so it wouldn't even look partisan.

If Dems control redistricting in 2020, liberals like me will hold their feet to the fire and make them redistrict fairly. NO GERRYMANDERING

[Donerail]

Well, if they continue to win by cheating,  they will go so mad with power that they go off the deep end and subsequently lose by a margin so big that they can't even win by cheating. i.e. The Bush Years.- Won by cheating, birds came back to roost.

Well Bush won on a technicality, not by cheating.  Unless you consider different election laws in different states to be cheating, but then you could argue anything closer than 2008 was "stolen."

If Democrats won huge in 2018-20, I'm not sure you would see them redistrict quite as aggressively as Republicans did this time.  There seem to be more people on the left who just don't like gerrymandering, period.  There was opposition to the MD map on the left, for example.  Not to mention that their state legislative majorities would be built by people who won in Lean R districts and might not even want a 58% Obama seat because of the primary.

However, they could amend VRA Section 2 to include Evangelical Christians as a protected class.  That would require drawing R+30 districts all over the place.  People like Michele Bachmann would probably support it, so it wouldn't even look partisan.

If Dems control redistricting in 2020, liberals like me will hold their feet to the fire and make them redistrict fairly. NO GERRYMANDERING

That's what they all say...

[Blackacre]

Well, if they continue to win by cheating,  they will go so mad with power that they go off the deep end and subsequently lose by a margin so big that they can't even win by cheating. i.e. The Bush Years.- Won by cheating, birds came back to roost.

Well Bush won on a technicality, not by cheating.  Unless you consider different election laws in different states to be cheating, but then you could argue anything closer than 2008 was "stolen."

If Democrats won huge in 2018-20, I'm not sure you would see them redistrict quite as aggressively as Republicans did this time.  There seem to be more people on the left who just don't like gerrymandering, period.  There was opposition to the MD map on the left, for example.  Not to mention that their state legislative majorities would be built by people who won in Lean R districts and might not even want a 58% Obama seat because of the primary.

However, they could amend VRA Section 2 to include Evangelical Christians as a protected class.  That would require drawing R+30 districts all over the place.  People like Michele Bachmann would probably support it, so it wouldn't even look partisan.

If Dems control redistricting in 2020, liberals like me will hold their feet to the fire and make them redistrict fairly. NO GERRYMANDERING

That's what they all say...

...okay, okay, I'd probably just yell on liberal facebook pages instead of going and contacting state legislatures, but I value fairness above all else. The country functions best when both parties are given equal ground to stand on. A slanted house for 5 cycles, while good for me as a Democrat, wouldn't be good for the nation. It's just that most of the unfair measures and hypocrisies I see are on the side I'm opposed to at the moment. Gerrymandering is WRONG, no matter who does it or when. Voter suppression is treason, no matter who does it or when. The fillibuster needs to be fixed, no matter who's in the minority.

[Skill and Chance]

Well, if they continue to win by cheating,  they will go so mad with power that they go off the deep end and subsequently lose by a margin so big that they can't even win by cheating. i.e. The Bush Years.- Won by cheating, birds came back to roost.

Well Bush won on a technicality, not by cheating.  Unless you consider different election laws in different states to be cheating, but then you could argue anything closer than 2008 was "stolen."

If Democrats won huge in 2018-20, I'm not sure you would see them redistrict quite as aggressively as Republicans did this time.  There seem to be more people on the left who just don't like gerrymandering, period.  There was opposition to the MD map on the left, for example.  Not to mention that their state legislative majorities would be built by people who won in Lean R districts and might not even want a 58% Obama seat because of the primary.

However, they could amend VRA Section 2 to include Evangelical Christians as a protected class.  That would require drawing R+30 districts all over the place.  People like Michele Bachmann would probably support it, so it wouldn't even look partisan.

If Dems control redistricting in 2020, liberals like me will hold their feet to the fire and make them redistrict fairly. NO GERRYMANDERING

That's what they all say...

...okay, okay, I'd probably just yell on liberal facebook pages instead of going and contacting state legislatures, but I value fairness above all else. The country functions best when both parties are given equal ground to stand on. A slanted house for 5 cycles, while good for me as a Democrat, wouldn't be good for the nation. It's just that most of the unfair measures and hypocrisies I see are on the side I'm opposed to at the moment. Gerrymandering is WRONG, no matter who does it or when. Voter suppression is treason, no matter who does it or when. The fillibuster needs to be fixed, no matter who's in the minority.

In a 50/50 election, Democrats would win 24 states and 4 of them (VA, CO, NH and IA) by razor thin margins.  There are only 20 reliably Democratic states, so the filibuster in theory keeps Democrats in the game.   

[Lief 🗽]

Well, if they continue to win by cheating,  they will go so mad with power that they go off the deep end and subsequently lose by a margin so big that they can't even win by cheating. i.e. The Bush Years.- Won by cheating, birds came back to roost.

Well Bush won on a technicality, not by cheating.  Unless you consider different election laws in different states to be cheating, but then you could argue anything closer than 2008 was "stolen."

If Democrats won huge in 2018-20, I'm not sure you would see them redistrict quite as aggressively as Republicans did this time.  There seem to be more people on the left who just don't like gerrymandering, period.  There was opposition to the MD map on the left, for example.  Not to mention that their state legislative majorities would be built by people who won in Lean R districts and might not even want a 58% Obama seat because of the primary.

However, they could amend VRA Section 2 to include Evangelical Christians as a protected class.  That would require drawing R+30 districts all over the place.  People like Michele Bachmann would probably support it, so it wouldn't even look partisan.

If Dems control redistricting in 2020, liberals like me will hold their feet to the fire and make them redistrict fairly. NO GERRYMANDERING

This liberal certainly won't. I hope we gerrymander every state we can.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Have a look at the Maryland map, people. That is all.

[Smid]

It's easy enough for a gerrymander to backfire. If you create a few safe districts for your opponents, and a bunch of marginal districts for your own party, it's much easier to lose the lot in a bad year, and as Angry Weasel points out - changes in governing party are natural and expected by the electorate. If one side holds a majority for too long, particularly if it's due to unfair boundaries, eventually the dam bursts and the party gets swept from office and the results for that party are even more catastrophic than had they lost in a fairer election an election or two previously.

[Blackacre]

Well, if they continue to win by cheating,  they will go so mad with power that they go off the deep end and subsequently lose by a margin so big that they can't even win by cheating. i.e. The Bush Years.- Won by cheating, birds came back to roost.

Well Bush won on a technicality, not by cheating.  Unless you consider different election laws in different states to be cheating, but then you could argue anything closer than 2008 was "stolen."

If Democrats won huge in 2018-20, I'm not sure you would see them redistrict quite as aggressively as Republicans did this time.  There seem to be more people on the left who just don't like gerrymandering, period.  There was opposition to the MD map on the left, for example.  Not to mention that their state legislative majorities would be built by people who won in Lean R districts and might not even want a 58% Obama seat because of the primary.

However, they could amend VRA Section 2 to include Evangelical Christians as a protected class.  That would require drawing R+30 districts all over the place.  People like Michele Bachmann would probably support it, so it wouldn't even look partisan.

If Dems control redistricting in 2020, liberals like me will hold their feet to the fire and make them redistrict fairly. NO GERRYMANDERING

This liberal certainly won't. I hope we gerrymander every state we can.

So you'll take a bigger majority unfairly won over a smaller majority/minority chosen by the people? It's just not fair to gerrymander, and as history has always shown, we gotta set the example by doing the right thing. If we set the precedent, in 2030 should the Republicans be on top, we'll still be districted fairly.

[Lief 🗽]

If we set the precedent, in 2030 should the Republicans be on top, we'll still be districted fairly.

aww, that's adorable!

[Miles]

9-4 R (69% R)


33-17 R (66% R)


77-43 R (64% R)

[Skill and Chance]

9-4 R (69% R)


33-17 R (66% R)


77-43 R (64% R)

Holy heck SD-21, HD-7, HD-10 and HD-48.  That's like the IL Dems drawing all 18 districts into Chicago...

[Blackacre]

If we set the precedent, in 2030 should the Republicans be on top, we'll still be districted fairly.

aww, that's adorable!

it's my "liberal fantasy". I don't expect this to happen bar a miracle, but hypothetically speaking, what if in 2020, we got the presidency and a 2/3 majority in the house and senate. We then passed a Constitutional Amendment requiring each state to have their districts drawn for them every 10 years by a nonpartisan federal district-drawing commission. Implausible, but amazing for the country

[Benj]

It's easy enough for a gerrymander to backfire. If you create a few safe districts for your opponents, and a bunch of marginal districts for your own party, it's much easier to lose the lot in a bad year, and as Angry Weasel points out - changes in governing party are natural and expected by the electorate. If one side holds a majority for too long, particularly if it's due to unfair boundaries, eventually the dam bursts and the party gets swept from office and the results for that party are even more catastrophic than had they lost in a fairer election an election or two previously.

But, unless the burst dam happens at exactly the right time (right before redistricting), the previously dominant party will win back power shortly because the map still grossly favors them in the long term. After all, the anger that caused the dam to burst only lasts one or two elections at most.

[Miles]

Holy heck SD-21, HD-7, HD-10 and HD-48.  That's like the IL Dems drawing all 18 districts into Chicago...

The precinct-splitting they did for SD-21 in Fayetteville was beyond excessive.

[Lief 🗽]

If we set the precedent, in 2030 should the Republicans be on top, we'll still be districted fairly.

aww, that's adorable!

it's my "liberal fantasy". I don't expect this to happen bar a miracle, but hypothetically speaking, what if in 2020, we got the presidency and a 2/3 majority in the house and senate. We then passed a Constitutional Amendment requiring each state to have their districts drawn for them every 10 years by a nonpartisan federal district-drawing commission. Implausible, but amazing for the country

Well, yeah I would support passing a constitutional amendment creating a nonpartisan federal redistricting commission. But barring a nationwide fair district standard, we shouldn't unilaterally disarm.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

It also helps that party if the other party has moderate heroes like Andrew Cuomo who go out of their way to help that party gerrymander so that they can burnish their bipartisan credentials. It appears that North Carolina has a Democratic governor who also didn't do much to stop these. That North Carolina map looks as bad as a 27-0 NY Democratic map.