Chinese police plan to board ships in disputed seas

[dead0man]

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Yeah, good luck with that.

[Franzl]

We talk too much about Israel, Iran and co. The PRC's HPish-ness deserves more attention.

[ingemann]

Here's a map of the claims in the South Chinese Sea



So we should not only blame China, some of the other countries also have some idiotic claims, through the Chinese claims are the most arrogant and least legit ones.

I personal think that Phillipines, Vietnam, Malaysia Indonesia and Brunei, should met and agree on the border with each other, and create a common front against the Chinese.

[dead0man]

We talk too much about Israel, Iran and co. The PRC's HPish-ness deserves more attention.

If I remember correctly, there are only a couple of people here that will play for the side of the bad guys, and they aren't really all that into it.  For various reasons a ton of people like to argue for the bad guy's side in those other threads.

So we should not only blame China, some of the other countries also have some idiotic claims, through the Chinese claims are the most arrogant and least legit ones.

I personal think that Phillipines, Vietnam, Malaysia Indonesia and Brunei, should met and agree on the border with each other, and create a common front against the Chinese.

Indeed.  I think some of that has already been accomplished, but yeah, they really should all be on the same page when the sh**t hits the fan.  Despite a serious lack of air assets, the Philippines will be alright because the US will step in if needed (we have a mutual defense treaty).  Our ties with Vietnam grow closer by the day as well.

The PRC are driving straight into a brick wall with this, it won't end well for them if they push this....unless they think America won't step in or they think they can defeat the USN and USAF, which I really can't believe they think that.  Of course they believed an Onion article yesterday so who knows.

[Bacon King]

I'm a bit perplexed here.

My first thought is that this is some new senior official's attempt to appease hard liners that'll be called off as soon as it becomes an international problem.

However, this could also be some sort of more serious diplomatic ploy. Perhaps China is intentionally being caustic because they do want the other nations to unify here. Then China can negotiate with a united opposition and get everyone's claims squared away and mutually recognized. I've always figured China's claims were so deep because they were basically China's "initial offer" in the inevitable negotiation. In the end, they'll gladly walk away with a reduced territory as long as it's internationally acknowledged and still gives them good access to the oil fields, which is far more than China would have reasonably gotten if they had stuck to existing international maritime law in the first place.

China is posturing aggressively, yes, but they know better than to press this too far because they have a good bit of money invested in the economies of all the other nations involved. They don't definitely don't want open conflict here. And, even if they did want to push this into a war for a full territory grab, the Chinese military has about another decade of upgrades before it'd be capable of such a major action.

[bgwah]

We talk too much about Israel, Iran and co. The PRC's HPish-ness deserves more attention.

If I remember correctly, there are only a couple of people here that will play for the side of the bad guys, and they aren't really all that into it.  For various reasons a ton of people like to argue for the bad guy's side in those other threads.

So we should not only blame China, some of the other countries also have some idiotic claims, through the Chinese claims are the most arrogant and least legit ones.

I personal think that Phillipines, Vietnam, Malaysia Indonesia and Brunei, should met and agree on the border with each other, and create a common front against the Chinese.

Indeed.  I think some of that has already been accomplished, but yeah, they really should all be on the same page when the sh**t hits the fan.  Despite a serious lack of air assets, the Philippines will be alright because the US will step in if needed (we have a mutual defense treaty).  Our ties with Vietnam grow closer by the day as well.

The PRC are driving straight into a brick wall with this, it won't end well for them if they push this....unless they think America won't step in or they think they can defeat the USN and USAF, which I really can't believe they think that.  Of course they believed an Onion article yesterday so who knows.

Personally, I think the world is a little more complicated than "good guys" and "bad guys," but thinking is hard for some people, so I understand why some have to simplify it like that.

[dead0man]

Thanks for adding so much to the conversation!

[bgwah]

Thanks for adding so much to the conversation!

Right back at ya! I look forward to more of your high quality posts about "da Joos," as you call them.

[Bacon King]

Thanks for ignoring my EffortPost guys

[Foucaulf]

Now that the Senkakus issue has essentially died down, China's going back to the conflict it can handle. With both China and the Southeast Asian states about equal in terms of naval power, there's not much that either side can do other than to fortify their gains. The only time China has fought naval battles in the Sea was against only Vietnam; more modernization is needed if China can even dream of taking a two-prong attack.

I think I'm most convinced that this specific policy is propaganda. There's been a push to turn the islands occupied by China into incorporated territory, and as such give domestic security nominal powers over them. But can they really exercise it?

I've always figured China's claims were so deep because they were basically China's "initial offer" in the inevitable negotiation. In the end, they'll gladly walk away with a reduced territory as long as it's internationally acknowledged and still gives them good access to the oil fields, which is far more than China would have reasonably gotten if they had stuck to existing international maritime law in the first place.

It ought to be in China's best interest to settle some claims just so excavation of the islands' natural resources can begin. There are definitely forces in the government who thinks that, but there are also people who think by the time China desperately needs the new energy the military would be modernized enough to take that on.

Your explanation is attractive, though I would say China is not energy starved enough to seriously consider an invasion yet. The military's obsession with the islands is also pathological, because it wants to prove to the world that China can secure its borders.

[Sbane]

Time to increase US patrols in Southeast Asian waters. I don't think any of the countries around there will mind. Who does Australia favor in all this?

[Beet]

The problem is, it's difficult to know what China actually plans to do because its politics are so opaque.

[Bacon King]

I've always figured China's claims were so deep because they were basically China's "initial offer" in the inevitable negotiation. In the end, they'll gladly walk away with a reduced territory as long as it's internationally acknowledged and still gives them good access to the oil fields, which is far more than China would have reasonably gotten if they had stuck to existing international maritime law in the first place.

It ought to be in China's best interest to settle some claims just so excavation of the islands' natural resources can begin. There are definitely forces in the government who thinks that, but there are also people who think by the time China desperately needs the new energy the military would be modernized enough to take that on.

Your explanation is attractive, though I would say China is not energy starved enough to seriously consider an invasion yet. The military's obsession with the islands is also pathological, because it wants to prove to the world that China can secure its borders.

Of course, but much of China's current foreign policy is geared towards securing the resources it knows it'll need in the future. See, for example, the ports and pipelines transportation links China has funded throughout the region to give it better access to the Middle East (I learned under the name of the "string of pearls" strategy); securing the islands in the South China Seas is another part of that strategy.

It's also worth noting that, IIRC, it takes about a decade from initial exploration for offshore oil to be fully exploitable. By the time China has the military capability to secure this area, they'll already be needing the resources but still won't have them for years.

I agree much of this is propaganda, but I also think China would prefer to diplomatically secure as much as they can right now.

The problem is, it's difficult to know what China actually plans to do because its politics are so opaque.

That's what makes China so interesting! Even the best analyses are little more than well-educated guesswork.

[Beet]

The problem is, it's difficult to know what China actually plans to do because its politics are so opaque.

That's what makes China so interesting! Even the best analyses are little more than well-educated guesswork.

Eh, I find politics where someone like Nate Silver can do an analysis more interesting. There's still a lot of guesswork involved, but it's like a mystery with a lot of clues. China is like a mystery with no clues, or things that look like clues but are just head-fakes. At some point you just throw up your hands.

[bgwah]

Thanks for adding so much to the conversation!

Oh goody, we get to see which posters are in one of their "rebel" phases.

"hey man, this isn't a phase, I've been thinking this way for months!"

a few days apart. haha.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

And everyone ignores the upcoming World War III...