Austrian Parliamentary Election - Sept. 29

[peterould]

Assuming no more polls tomorrow, I have updated my predictions for this weekend.

[Tender Branson]

Assuming no more polls tomorrow, I have updated my predictions for this weekend.

My calculation with a D'Hondt calculator would add a seat to the FPÖ from TS.

All other parties' seats are identical with your estimate.

I used the average of the July polls, excl. the earlier Market poll.

[peterould]

Assuming no more polls tomorrow, I have updated my predictions for this weekend.

My calculation with a D'Hondt calculator would add a seat to the FPÖ from TS.

All other parties' seats are identical with your estimate.

I used the average of the July polls, excl. the earlier Market poll.

The difference between you and me is

i) The cunning way I weight the polls
ii) I'm running 10,000 simulations and reporting the most likely outcome!

My outcome occurs 2.12% of the time, yours 1.19%

[Tender Branson]

Today, we also have the OGM "trust-index" for the APA (Austrian Press Agency):

The trust index shows the balance of "I have trust/confidence in this politician, minus I have no trust/confidence in this politician".



It shows almost the same ratings for the party leaders like the Spectra poll today (previous page), only with different question wordings (have trust/no trust vs. good/bad opinion about this politician).

...

Also, OGM asked for the Kurier:

"Do you want the Greens in the next government or not ?"



29% Yes
55% No

Green voters want the Greens in the next government by a 96-2 margin, while FPÖ voters are opposed by a 98-2 margin.

SPÖ and ÖVP voters are also moderately opposed to a Green government role.

http://kurier.at/politik/inland/kurier-ogm-umfrage-jede-dritte-will-die-gruenen-in-der-regierung/19.906.420

[Tender Branson]

Assuming no more polls tomorrow, I have updated my predictions for this weekend.

Actually, there is a new poll today: IMAS in the Kronen Zeitung

26-28% SPÖ
24-26% ÖVP
18-20% FPÖ
12-14% Greens
  9-11% TS
    2-3% BZÖ
    3-4% Others

[Tender Branson]

Team Stronach seems to be gaining a few points recently.

A few weeks ago, they were at 7-8%, now at ca. 10%.

I think this has to do with Frank Stronach's campaign posters that he put up in the thousands:



"Unbribable - Frank"

This poster has been described by political analysts as effective, because it portrays Stronach as an unbribable politician, because he already is a billionaire - instead of politicians involved in recent or Schüssel-era bribing and corruption scandals.

[peterould]

I've updated my weekend's prediction based on including the IMAS poll. Definitely beginning to see Team Stronach picking up steam. Although I'm not showing them on the page, I'm starting to get scenarios at both fringes of the Greens' vote where they beat the FPÖ into third place (0.01%) or conversely they get pushed by Team Stronach into fifth place (0.22%). Expect that scenario to become more likely as Team Stronach pick up steam.

[Tender Branson]

I've updated my weekend's prediction based on including the IMAS poll. Definitely beginning to see Team Stronach picking up steam. Although I'm not showing them on the page, I'm starting to get scenarios at both fringes of the Greens' vote where they beat the FPÖ into third place (0.01%) or conversely they get pushed by Team Stronach into fifth place (0.22%). Expect that scenario to become more likely as Team Stronach pick up steam.

It would be weird somehow if the election ended up almost identical to the 2008 election.

SPÖ, ÖVP, FPÖ, Greens all with the same share as 2008 and the TS taking the place of the BZÖ, which takes the place of the 2008 Citizen Forum, while NEOS takes the LIF share ...

[peterould]

I've updated my weekend's prediction based on including the IMAS poll. Definitely beginning to see Team Stronach picking up steam. Although I'm not showing them on the page, I'm starting to get scenarios at both fringes of the Greens' vote where they beat the FPÖ into third place (0.01%) or conversely they get pushed by Team Stronach into fifth place (0.22%). Expect that scenario to become more likely as Team Stronach pick up steam.

It would be weird somehow if the election ended up almost identical to the 2008 election.

SPÖ, ÖVP, FPÖ, Greens all with the same share as 2008 and the TS taking the place of the BZÖ, which takes the place of the 2008 Citizen Forum, while NEOS takes the LIF share ...

It would be nice to have an election campaign with some movement in it! TS seem to now be picking up a bit of the support from the BZÖ as they sink into oblivion. I wonder whether NEOS will make any impact.

[Tender Branson]

I wonder whether NEOS will make any impact.

Too early to say, but I think they won't get beyond 4%.

As I have posted above, there is a new Profil poll out in which Austrians say that TV debates matter most for their vote choice.

Only the candidates of the 6 parties in the parliament already will be invited to the debates.

NEOS, Pirates and KPÖ (and maybe a few others) will only be invited to an ORF Pressestunde (ORF Meet the Press hour), which takes place in Mid-September on a Sunday at 11am, where all Austrians are having dinner and are not watching TV.

NEOS also doesn't really have the money to print 1000s of posters like other parties can, which limits their presence and voter pool to the bigger cities (just like the LIF in 2008).

If they are indeed rising in the polls, they will hurt the ÖVP and Greens the most.

[peterould]

I was in Austria for most of the election last time. I thought some of the TV debates were great. in particular Strache pretty well demolised Faymann. Even my middle of the road aunt watching it with me was saying "I don't like Strache but he's absolutely winning this one".

[Tender Branson]

I was in Austria for most of the election last time. I thought some of the TV debates were great. in particular Strache pretty well demolised Faymann. Even my middle of the road aunt watching it with me was saying "I don't like Strache but he's absolutely winning this one".

I can't really remember the debates anymore, because there were so many of them (10-20).

But I think Haider did a good job at that time, that's why the BZÖ ended up with 11% on election day, instead of the 7-8% in the polls before the election, while the FPÖ did more or less like the polls predicted.

Strache "demolishing" Faymann is relative. Strache is a huge loudmouth and constantly throws aggressive terms against his opponents, especially against the SPÖ "who are incompetent pro-immigration Communists".

BTW, who would you vote for here in September ?

I believe you are a British citizen only, right ? Not a dual citizen - so you actually can't vote here ?

[Tender Branson]

A new turnout estimate from the new Market poll for the Standard:

80% of those polled said they will "definitely vote"
13% said they are "likely to vote"
  7% said they will "not vote"

http://derstandard.at/1373513268008/Nichtwaehler-sagen-Wahlen-bewirken-keine-Aenderungen

This is similar to the Spectra poll from the weekend, where the numbers were 76-14-10.

Surprisingly high if you ask me, considering turnout was 79% in 2008 - and the turnout was down by an average of 5% in the 4 state elections earlier this year.

Maybe people just lie ...

[Zanas]

Whereas it's pretty terrible that Stronach is campaigning on being unbribable, it's very characteristic of today's political scene's state, and also very sad, that it is actually working...

[Tender Branson]

The Pirates are picking up speed with their signatures:

Vienna is already 100% in, Styria has 92%, Upper Austria 56%.

"Der Wandel" has now published data as well, but they only have 32% at most right now (in Vienna).

http://neuwal.com/index.php/2013/07/09/neuwal-com-walmanach-osterreich-2013-unterstutzungserklarungen/#03

Parties can still collect this week and next week and submit the signatures by Friday next week until 5pm.

[peterould]

I was in Austria for most of the election last time. I thought some of the TV debates were great. in particular Strache pretty well demolised Faymann. Even my middle of the road aunt watching it with me was saying "I don't like Strache but he's absolutely winning this one".

I can't really remember the debates anymore, because there were so many of them (10-20).

But I think Haider did a good job at that time, that's why the BZÖ ended up with 11% on election day, instead of the 7-8% in the polls before the election, while the FPÖ did more or less like the polls predicted.

Strache "demolishing" Faymann is relative. Strache is a huge loudmouth and constantly throws aggressive terms against his opponents, especially against the SPÖ "who are incompetent pro-immigration Communists".

BTW, who would you vote for here in September ?

I believe you are a British citizen only, right ? Not a dual citizen - so you actually can't vote here ?

Yes, British citizenship. Avoided dual nationality to avoid any hint of doing national service (!) and then once I was old enough to not have to worry about that Austria was an EU member and our wonderfully parochial Austrian civil servants wouldn't do dual at that point for EU nationals (or at least not without an incredible amount of fuss).

Who would I vote for? I guess politically I'm somewhere between ÖVP and Stronach. Make of that what you will.

[Tender Branson]

The "Wiener Zeitung" has an article about small parties and their signature collection progress:

http://www.wienerzeitung.at/nachrichten/wahlen/nationalratswahl/563440_Kleinparteien-drohen-an-Unterschriften-zu-scheitern.html

NEOS and SLP have already reached their goal and will be on the ballots they wanted (SLP only in Vienna).

The Pirates and KPÖ are "well on their way" for ballot spots in all 9 states, even though some states are problematic.

All other parties have massive problems with the collection and could only run in some states or none at all.

[Tender Branson]

New NEOS ad about the increasing debt and that people should start doing something against it:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TJNbZ59rRss

"Every second ... that we are waiting ... Austria is indebting itself ... by 305€."

"Every second ... and therefore you as well !"

"Do something !"

"Government debt: 231.000.000.000 €"

"Your debt: 31.000 €"

[Tender Branson]

Signature update:

The Pirates now have ca. 71% of the 2600 signatures needed.

The Communists have ca. 75% of them.

Which means that there could be 9 parties on the ballot Austria-wide, 7 for sure.

[freek]

The "Wiener Zeitung" has an article about small parties and their signature collection progress:

http://www.wienerzeitung.at/nachrichten/wahlen/nationalratswahl/563440_Kleinparteien-drohen-an-Unterschriften-zu-scheitern.html

NEOS and SLP have already reached their goal and will be on the ballots they wanted (SLP only in Vienna).

The Pirates and KPÖ are "well on their way" for ballot spots in all 9 states, even though some states are problematic.

All other parties have massive problems with the collection and could only run in some states or none at all.

Apparently, in Austria the procedure is quite similar to the Dutch one, that signatures are only valid when signed in your local town hall. Even the name is the same (Unterstützungserklärung | ondersteuningsverklaring). The number of 2600 signatures is huge though, even if a party has 3 weeks to gather them.

For 'our' elections last year, all new parties had difficulties in gathering enough signatures (600, in 1 week). This is why the period has been extended to 2 weeks now (and the number lowered to 580).

[Tender Branson]

The "Wiener Zeitung" has an article about small parties and their signature collection progress:

http://www.wienerzeitung.at/nachrichten/wahlen/nationalratswahl/563440_Kleinparteien-drohen-an-Unterschriften-zu-scheitern.html

NEOS and SLP have already reached their goal and will be on the ballots they wanted (SLP only in Vienna).

The Pirates and KPÖ are "well on their way" for ballot spots in all 9 states, even though some states are problematic.

All other parties have massive problems with the collection and could only run in some states or none at all.

Apparently, in Austria the procedure is quite similar to the Dutch one, that signatures are only valid when signed in your local town hall. Even the name is the same (Unterstützungserklärung | ondersteuningsverklaring). The number of 2600 signatures is huge though, even if a party has 3 weeks to gather them.

For 'our' elections last year, all new parties had difficulties in gathering enough signatures (600, in 1 week). This is why the period has been extended to 2 weeks now (and the number lowered to 580).

Yeah, 2600 signatures in 3 weeks is a lot for small parties with only a handful of staff.

Of course I understand why you have to go to the local town hall, show your picture ID if you are not known there and sign it in front of the office worker there, so he/she can sign it for the town and give the paper a stamp for the validity.

Because of the bureaucracy and because of the election law.

What I don't understand is, why people are not informed by a letter from the city or the government that they are able to sign those petitions now, to raise the awareness for small parties.

And 3 weeks is definitely not long enough, in the summer where everyone is on vacation.

Also, people might get pissed off by the fact that they have to go to the local town hall and sign petitions for small parties when the town hall people are often SPÖ and ÖVP figures. So, especially if they know you personally, signing for "another party" is often "complicated" and hardly anonymous.

I think if I can order a absentee ballot online, I should also be able to sign a petition for a party online. The parties would have less problems with collecting the signatures "on the street", because the petitions would be stored online with the government and then checked for their validity and added up.

But of course SPÖVP is doing "everything" to keep competing parties off the ballot ...

And even the Greens who always say they are "sooo democratic" are not using the option that 3 of their MPs in parliament sign petitions to allow a party to be on the ballot ...

For example if 3 Green MPs sign a petition for the CPÖ or the EU-Exit Party (parties that will hurt the FPÖ and not the Greens), but they don't ... why exactly aren't they doing it ? Any vote that's not for the FPÖ and for the CPÖ or EU-Exit, is a good vote.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

For example if 3 Green MPs sign a petition for the CPÖ or the EU-Exit Party (parties that will hurt the FPÖ and not the Greens), but they don't ... why exactly aren't they doing it ? Any vote that's not for the FPÖ and for the CPÖ or EU-Exit, is a good vote.

Because signing a petition for a party you completely disagree with for tactical reasons would be seen as unethical by voters.

Because the FPÖ could easily get back at them by signing for parties that would take votes away from the Greens.   

[Tender Branson]

For example if 3 Green MPs sign a petition for the CPÖ or the EU-Exit Party (parties that will hurt the FPÖ and not the Greens), but they don't ... why exactly aren't they doing it ? Any vote that's not for the FPÖ and for the CPÖ or EU-Exit, is a good vote.

Because signing a petition for a party you completely disagree with for tactical reasons would be seen as unethical by voters.

Because the FPÖ could easily get back at them by signing for parties that would take votes away from the Greens.   

Maybe, but could also fire up the Green base.

On your second point: Not if they do it on the day of the deadline ... The FPÖ would have no time left to do the same.

[MaxQue]

Well, honestly, Austrian Greens seem pretty principled.

Anyways, if a party does that, it must be more discreet, so we shouldn't hear about it.

[Tender Branson]

Well, honestly, Austrian Greens seem pretty principled.

Anyways, if a party does that, it must be more discreet, so we shouldn't hear about it.

When dealing with election technicalities, there is nothing discreet: If the 3 Green MP's sign the petition for let's say CPÖ and EU-Exit, then the media will take note of it pretty soon.

But I don't think it would stay in the news very long, maybe just a few days because it's still vacation time and early in the campaign. The FPÖ could probably bitch around that the Greens support parties that could hurt the FPÖ, but this will soon be forgotten when the real campaign starts with the debates and interviews etc.

So the "unethical" point from Swedish Cheese may be correct, but it's unlikely to be a big deal.