Austrian Parliamentary Election - Sept. 29

[ERvND]

Betting organisations currently offer a quota of 1:6 for a NEOS entry into parliament.

If NEOS rises to 4% support in the next weeks and the bookies are not changing their quotas and lower them, I could invest quite a high sum on it ...

Unfortunately, the bookies have automatic algorithms in place, so the odds will instantly collapse as soon as money starts pouring in. If you really want to make a profit, you'll have to bet now.

I wouldn't recommend it, though. Those kind of bets are silly. In the end, they come down to the prediction of an exact result (3,9 or 4,0% will make a difference), which is much harder than, say, predicting the strongest party.

[Tender Branson]

Betting organisations currently offer a quota of 1:6 for a NEOS entry into parliament.

If NEOS rises to 4% support in the next weeks and the bookies are not changing their quotas and lower them, I could invest quite a high sum on it ...

Unfortunately, the bookies have automatic algorithms in place, so the odds will instantly collapse as soon as money starts pouring in. If you really want to make a profit, you'll have to bet now.

I wouldn't recommend it, though. Those kind of bets are silly. In the end, they come down to the prediction of an exact result (3,9 or 4,0% will make a difference), which is much harder than, say, predicting the strongest party.

I'm betting that nobody else notices the rise of NEOS in the polls and invests sooner than I do ... So the odds will remain high for a while.

[Tender Branson]

New Profil poll:

28% SPÖ
25% ÖVP
18% FPÖ
16% Greens
  7% TS
  3% BZÖ
  3% Others (NEOS, Pirates, KPÖ, etc.)

http://www.profil.at/articles/1332/560/363958/auftakt-wahlkampfs

Gotta wait with the bookies regarding NEOS ...

[Tender Branson]

The 1st level sentences from the FPÖ/Telekom corruption trial from the Schüssel-time (2000-2006) came yesterday and it's bad news for the FPÖ and their election campaign:

Four convicted in Telekom Austria corruption trial

Aug 9 (Reuters) - A Vienna court convicted a former Telekom Austria top manager and a senior advertising executive on Friday of cheating the company out of 600,000 euros ($801,000) that prosecutors said was covertly channelled to a right-wing party in 2004.

Ex-Deputy Chief Executive Rudolf Fischer was given a three-year jail sentence - all except for six months suspended - and Gernot Rumpold three years behind bars in the case, the third in a slew of corruption probes linked to Telekom Austria to reach court.

The court ordered the two to repay the company all the money plus interest, Austrian media reported.

Prosecutors said Rumpold received the money in return for fake consulting reports he drew up, and used it to replace funds he was owed by the Freedom Party (FPO) of late firebrand Joerg Haider, who died in a car crash in 2008.

They said Fischer helped arrange the payments to win the favour of Haider, whose party was at the time part of a coalition government with conservatives.

Two other defendants were given lesser sentences in the breach of trust and perjury trial, and one was acquitted. Rumpold's attorney filed an appeal and Fischer was considering one.

The case highlights stepped up efforts in Austria to end the kind of practices that let public officials for years dip into funds of former monopoly Telekom Austria for their own ends. Local media have dubbed the company the "political ATM".

Prosecutor Herbert Harammer had argued in his closing arguments that the authorities needed a wake-up call.

"We have to show potential wrongdoers in the corporate boardrooms and party headquarters that breaking the law will have tangible consequences," the Austria Press Agency quoted him as saying.

A new generation of prosecutors, politicians and investigative reporters is trying to change a culture of corruption in Austrian public life, where many deals were traditionally done on the back of friendships and favours.

The court ordered the FPO - which in the meantime has split into two parties - to relinquish the 600,000 euros. The party said it would appeal against the ruling, which comes ahead of national elections in September.

No current Telekom Austria executives were involved in the trial. Fischer had already been sentenced to three years in jail for share price manipulation in the first Telekom Austria case to come to trial in February.

Telekom Austria was privatised in 2000 but is still 28 percent state-owned. A new major shareholder, Carlos Slim's America Movil, with nearly 24 percent of the company, came onto the scene last year.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/08/09/telekomaustria-corruption-trial-idUSL6N0GA3TG20130809

...

Great.

And the BZÖ-related sentences in another trial will come in Mid-September, just 2 weeks ahead of the election ...

[Tender Branson]

Here is an overview of all the Telekom trials (for the German speakers):

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The sentences yesterday came from the Telekom III trial.

The BZÖ sentences in mid- or late September will be from the Telekom IV trial: 7 BZÖ- or BZÖ-related persons are on trial because of 960.000 € that went from the Telekom to the BZÖ in the mid-2000s. One of the seven was already found guilty.

Will be hard for the BZÖ to get above the 4% parliamentary threshold, considering all of this ...

[DC Al Fine]

Christian in areas where they are running, otherwise OVP.

Branson, just put 20 euros on NEOS entering parliament and if you win you can treat yourself to something. No need to put a ton of money on it.

[Tender Branson]

Christian in areas where they are running, otherwise OVP.

Branson, just put 20 euros on NEOS entering parliament and if you win you can treat yourself to something. No need to put a ton of money on it.

Well, it depends how the polls change over the next 4 weeks and what the quotas look like in 4 weeks.

It also depends on the automatic system that ERvND described: I just hope that the bookies also don't look up the current polls and that the quotas remain favorable for the next weeks.

And by a "ton of money" I mean no more than 500€ anyway ...

[Tender Branson]

New Kronen Zeitung poll by IMAS:

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http://www.krone.at/Oesterreich/Mehrheit_fuer_Rot-Schwarz._FPOe_klar_vor_den_Gruenen-IMAS-Umfrage-Story-371862

Considering the results from the 2 polls today, I won't invest any € in a NEOS-bet ...

[Tender Branson]

My latest seat calculation:

SPÖ: 53-54
ÖVP: 49-50
FPÖ: 37
Greens: 27-28
TS: 15-16

peterould, what do you think ?

[peterould]

I've updated my predictions, subject to change if there are any more polls this weekend.

http://www.peter-ould.net/austria-election-predict/

I have the FPÖ and Stronach doing better then you do and that's mainly to do with the wide flexibility in their polling. I also have a return to the BZÖ registering as possibly getting over the 4% hurdle, but the probability of that is only 0.03%. I'm also seeing cross-overs at the FPÖ / Gr boundary (0.62% chance of Greens beating FPÖ) and at the Gr / Stronach boundary (2.05% chance of Stronach beating the Greens).

Not registering anything on NEOS yet.

[Tender Branson]

So, what are the next important dates for election technicalities ?

* August 12: last possible day for parties to submit their federal lists with all their candidates
* August 16: federal lists will be checked and announced on the Ministry of Interior page
* August 26: the final number of eligible voters will be annnounced (after possible appeals)
* August 30: absentee ballots will be sent to all voters that requested them
* August 30: poll opening and closing times will be announced for every town/city
* September 16: last day for towns/cities to send election information cards to voters
* September 25: last day to request and absentee ballot by post/fax/email/internet
* September 27: last day to request and absentee ballot in person at your local town hall
* September 27: the total number of requested absentee ballots will be released

* September 29: election day - all polls close at 5pm. All absentee ballots have to be received until 5pm by the district election commissions to be counted. BUT: on election day, only the precinct votes will be counted !

* September 30: starting at 9am, the absentee ballots will be counted.

[Tender Branson]

David Alaba's mom, Gina, is supporting Faymann and the SPÖ and is part of the new committee in support of the Chancellor:



Gina Alaba, Austrian President Heinz Fischer, David Alaba, George Alaba

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/daniel/Komitee-fuer-Faymann-mit-Mama-Alaba-und-EU-Schulz/112711499

[Tender Branson]

The FPÖ will release their election posters today.

Stay tuned ...

[peterould]

The FPÖ will release their election posters today.

Stay tuned ...

Oh goody!

[Tender Branson]

Chancellor Faymann's personal re-election committee has another famous name on it now:

Eric Kandel - 2000 Nobel Prize Winner in Physiology/Medicine



http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eric_Kandel

[Tender Branson]

Interesting fact about Kandel:

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...

In the meantime, the Red-Green (SPÖ-Green) city government in Vienna has renamed the Doktor-Karl-Lueger-Ring in Vienna to "Universitätsring" ("University Ring") in 2012.

Maybe this is a reason why he's supporting Faymann now ...

[Tender Branson]

On the 2nd point of criticism by Kandel (... bring back the Jewish intellectual community to Vienna), the city of Vienna and the Vienna Jewish community has also made significant progress:

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[Tender Branson]

The FPÖ will release their election posters today.

Stay tuned ...

Oh goody!

The FPÖ posters are out ... and they are LOL:

 

"Love thy neighbours. For me, that's our AUSTRIANS. High time for grace of charity - FPÖ"

 

"We decrease our EU-payments. SPÖVP care- and family-benefits."

"We decrease rents, taxes and fees. SPÖVP wages and pensions."

[Tender Branson]

Apparently Strache's aim is to turn into a modern-day political womanizer ala Spiderman and to save old women:

[peterould]

The second two make sense in policy terms, but the first two seem to be the same kind of subtle racism that marked the Vienna campaign.

Of course, on reflection the subtle racism in the Vienna campaign worked rather well for the FPÖ...

[Tender Branson]

The second two make sense in policy terms, but the first two seem to be the same kind of subtle racism that marked the Vienna campaign.

Of course, on reflection the subtle racism in the Vienna campaign worked rather well for the FPÖ...

Yeah, we'll see what the FPÖ-Vienna result looks like (will certainly be the best result of all states).

But, in other states the TS will cut heavily into the FPÖ share - for example in Styria and Carinthia, where Stronach has the Magna companies that employ quite a lot of people there. And in Carinthia, he could do rather well too because his mother is from there and the FPÖ and BZÖ there are in freefall. Stronach could also hurt the ÖVP in Styria.

[Tender Branson]

New ÖVP-spot:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nPEtyq76XT4

[Tender Branson]

The FPÖ has a new spot out from their series "The Berger Family", this time retired grandma Berger about what a "true friend" means to her:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k9Jc3CLKMro

Previous entries:

Franzi Berger (blue-collar-worker, talking about his "ideal buddy"):

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z92jKWnab-s

Anna Berger (student, first-time voter, talking about her "first boyfriend"):

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=omlZe3Icmvw

[peterould]

New ÖVP-spot:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nPEtyq76XT4

Gotta love the farmer at the start of that video. Thick accent. So much said in the sound of the voice rather than the words themselves.

[peterould]

The FPÖ has a new spot out from their series "The Berger Family", this time retired grandma Berger about what a "true friend" means to her:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k9Jc3CLKMro

Previous entries:

Franzi Berger (blue-collar-worker, talking about his "ideal buddy"):

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z92jKWnab-s

Anna Berger (student, first-time voter, talking about her "first boyfriend"):

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=omlZe3Icmvw

Are Anna and Franzi meant to be related? 'Cos listen to their accents - they are SO not related.