State legislative elections and control summaries

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Anyone have a list of how various states voted and which chambers are flipping in control? I haven't been able to find any. The only ones I've heard is that in Arkansas both houses flipped to the Republicans and of course that in Minnesota both houses flipped back to the DFL. Any site that compiles the results in every state?

[smoltchanov]

http://www.ncsl.org/legislatures-elections/elections/statevote-charts.aspx

[Antonio the Sixth]

http://www.ncsl.org/legislatures-elections/elections/statevote-charts.aspx

LOL @ California, 120 legislators for almost 40 million inhabitants. That's ridiculous.

And instead, NH is awesome.

[CatoMinor]

It appears the WI Senate flipped back to being GOP by 3 seats. Wasn't this supposed to be a safe Dem hold?

[Meeker]

It appears the WI Senate flipped back to being GOP by 3 seats. Wasn't this supposed to be a safe Dem hold?

No. The Dems only managed to win brief control after the recalls because 2001-2011 district lines were in effect. The elections this month used the new, much more GOP-friendly lines, drawn by the Republicans after they took control in 2010.

[Gass3268]

It appears the WI Senate flipped back to being GOP by 3 seats. Wasn't this supposed to be a safe Dem hold?

No. The Dems only managed to win brief control after the recalls because 2001-2011 district lines were in effect. The elections this month used the new, much more GOP-friendly lines, drawn by the Republicans after they took control in 2010.

Actually the GOP-freindly lines had nothing to do with the Democrats losing the Senate this election. Jessica King barley lost in the Oshkosh/Fond du Lac district that was almost identical to the district she won in the 2011 recall. In the other seat to flip, Jim Holperin had been representing a very Republican district and his retirement lead to an automatic pick up. In 2014 the new lines come into play. John Lehman will be out because his seat will become rural Kenosha and Racine counties. There has been some talk that Robert Wirch might retire, which would allow Lehman to run in the Kenosha/Racine 21st. The only potential seat for the Democrats to take would be Dale Shultz seat in the Southwest part of the state, but that would only be possible if he retires. The only way to take back the legislature is to hope that Democrats win the Governor's race in 2018 so we can have a court/compromise drawn map. I care more about winning in 2018 then 2014.

[Meeker]

It appears the WI Senate flipped back to being GOP by 3 seats. Wasn't this supposed to be a safe Dem hold?

No. The Dems only managed to win brief control after the recalls because 2001-2011 district lines were in effect. The elections this month used the new, much more GOP-friendly lines, drawn by the Republicans after they took control in 2010.

Actually the GOP-freindly lines had nothing to do with the Democrats losing the Senate this election. Jessica King barley lost in the Oshkosh/Fond du Lac district that was almost identical to the district she won in the 2011 recall. In the other seat to flip, Jim Holperin had been representing a very Republican district and his retirement lead to an automatic pick up. In 2014 the new lines come into play. John Lehman will be out because his seat will become rural Kenosha and Racine counties. There has been some talk that Robert Wirch might retire, which would allow Lehman to run in the Kenosha/Racine 21st. The only potential seat for the Democrats to take would be Dale Shultz seat in the Southwest part of the state, but that would only be possible if he retires. The only way to take back the legislature is to hope that Democrats win the Governor's race in 2018 so we can have a court/compromise drawn map. I care more about winning in 2018 then 2014.

How did King have a different district than in 2011 if the lines don't take effect until 2014?

[Hash]

http://www.ncsl.org/legislatures-elections/elections/statevote-charts.aspx

LOL @ California, 120 legislators for almost 40 million inhabitants. That's ridiculous.

And instead, NH is awesome.

NH is ridiculously excessive. It's two extremes.

[Benj]

It appears the WI Senate flipped back to being GOP by 3 seats. Wasn't this supposed to be a safe Dem hold?

No. The Dems only managed to win brief control after the recalls because 2001-2011 district lines were in effect. The elections this month used the new, much more GOP-friendly lines, drawn by the Republicans after they took control in 2010.

Actually the GOP-freindly lines had nothing to do with the Democrats losing the Senate this election. Jessica King barley lost in the Oshkosh/Fond du Lac district that was almost identical to the district she won in the 2011 recall. In the other seat to flip, Jim Holperin had been representing a very Republican district and his retirement lead to an automatic pick up. In 2014 the new lines come into play. John Lehman will be out because his seat will become rural Kenosha and Racine counties. There has been some talk that Robert Wirch might retire, which would allow Lehman to run in the Kenosha/Racine 21st. The only potential seat for the Democrats to take would be Dale Shultz seat in the Southwest part of the state, but that would only be possible if he retires. The only way to take back the legislature is to hope that Democrats win the Governor's race in 2018 so we can have a court/compromise drawn map. I care more about winning in 2018 then 2014.

How did King have a different district than in 2011 if the lines don't take effect until 2014?

The lines took effect this year, but Wisconsin elects its legislators by halves every four years. So the class this year was last up for election in 2008, and the 2014 class was last elected in 2010 (before the new lines).

http://www.ncsl.org/legislatures-elections/elections/statevote-charts.aspx

LOL @ California, 120 legislators for almost 40 million inhabitants. That's ridiculous.

And instead, NH is awesome.

NH is ridiculously excessive. It's two extremes.

No! It's hilariously comical that the four largest legislative bodies in the world belong to India, the UK, the US and New Hampshire.

[Mr.Phips]

It appears the WI Senate flipped back to being GOP by 3 seats. Wasn't this supposed to be a safe Dem hold?

No. The Dems only managed to win brief control after the recalls because 2001-2011 district lines were in effect. The elections this month used the new, much more GOP-friendly lines, drawn by the Republicans after they took control in 2010.

Actually the GOP-freindly lines had nothing to do with the Democrats losing the Senate this election. Jessica King barley lost in the Oshkosh/Fond du Lac district that was almost identical to the district she won in the 2011 recall. In the other seat to flip, Jim Holperin had been representing a very Republican district and his retirement lead to an automatic pick up. In 2014 the new lines come into play. John Lehman will be out because his seat will become rural Kenosha and Racine counties. There has been some talk that Robert Wirch might retire, which would allow Lehman to run in the Kenosha/Racine 21st. The only potential seat for the Democrats to take would be Dale Shultz seat in the Southwest part of the state, but that would only be possible if he retires. The only way to take back the legislature is to hope that Democrats win the Governor's race in 2018 so we can have a court/compromise drawn map. I care more about winning in 2018 then 2014.

In order to make Lehman's district Republican, they had to make Wirch's district into a safe Dem one. 

[Antonio the Sixth]

http://www.ncsl.org/legislatures-elections/elections/statevote-charts.aspx

LOL @ California, 120 legislators for almost 40 million inhabitants. That's ridiculous.

And instead, NH is awesome.

NH is ridiculously excessive. It's two extremes.

Well, I am an extremist on the issue of legislative sizes.

[Bacon King]

http://www.ncsl.org/legislatures-elections/elections/statevote-charts.aspx

LOL @ California, 120 legislators for almost 40 million inhabitants. That's ridiculous.

And instead, NH is awesome.

NH is ridiculously excessive. It's two extremes.

Anything less extreme and there's no substantive differences between the constituencies of the two legislative bodies, which means there's no point in it not being unicameral.

[greenforest32]

This link gives a useful overview too (the table below the map shows the results for any state you click on): http://www.governing.com/gov-data/politics/2012-state-legislature-elections-map.html





I think Republicans will win the West Virginia state house in 2014.

It looks like these are the most lopsided chambers:

State house (D) - Rhode Island house (69/75 seats for 92%)
State senate (D) - Hawaii senate (24/25 seats for 96%)
State house (R) - Wyoming house (52/60 seats for ~87%)
State senate (R) - Wyoming senate (26/30 seats for ~87%)

[Vosem]

Anyone have a list of how various states voted and which chambers are flipping in control? I haven't been able to find any. The only ones I've heard is that in Arkansas both houses flipped to the Republicans and of course that in Minnesota both houses flipped back to the DFL. Any site that compiles the results in every state?

Ballotpedia has one: http://ballotpedia.org/wiki/index.php/Ballotpedia's_update_on_2012_state_legislative_elections

But it's slightly outdated.

To summarize:

Alaska: The Senate was tied, 10-10, between Democrats and Republicans, so a group of moderate Republicans supported the Democrats, who controlled the chamber. Republicans gained Senate seats, but this wouldn't've been enough if they hadn't convinced the moderates to return to the fold. (While Alaska may have trended heavily D presidentially, the Republicans actually gained in both state legislative chambers).

Arkansas: Went from Democratic control of both chambers to Republican control of both chambers.

Colorado: The State Senate was controlled by Democrats, but the State House was controlled by Republicans. Democrats took control of the House.

Maine: Went from Republican control of both chambers to Democratic control of both chambers.

Minnesota: Went from Republican control of both chambers to Democratic control of both chambers.

New Hampshire: Prior to the elections, both chambers were controlled by Republicans. Democrats gained the State House, but Republicans maintained control of the State Senate.

New York: We all know the State Senate is a fustercluck. Basically, control has come down to a single, extremely close race between Republican George Amedore and Cecilia Tkaczyk. If Amedore wins (and he currently has a lead of slightly more than 100 votes), there are more Republicans, and if Tkaczyk wins, there are more Democrats. However, a group of four 'moderate' Democrats, led by Jeffrey Klein, has said they will support the Republicans in any case, although Democrats are trying to dissuade them. (In addition to those four, several other Senators, such as Malcolm Smith or Ruben Diaz, Sr., could be willing to support Dean Skelos, the Republican, for Majority Leader). When all is said and done, the question here is whether the Senate will be controlled by Republicans or a coalition of Republicans and moderate Democrats (and Simcha Felder is a Republican, guys. C'mon. He voted Romney, promised to caucus with Republicans, and will be seeking reelection in 4 years as a member of the Republican Party. Counting him as a Democrat who chooses to caucus with Republicans is like doing that to Parker Griffith; doesn't work). Sorry; Democrat leader John Sampson won't be Majority Leader.

Oregon: The State Senate was controlled by Democrats. However, the State House was actually evenly tied, with there being an agreement to shift control every day from Democrats to Republicans. (ie, Monday-D Speaker, Tuesday-R Speaker, Wednesday-D Speaker, et cetera). Democrats gained seats and therefore 'took' control of the State House.

Washington: This one is also a fustercluck. Basically, there is still one uncalled race; between Republican Don Benton (who, you may remember, ran as a TP candidate for US Senate and lost the primary to Dino Rossi back in 2010) and Democrat Tim Probst. A recount will be taking place; the last count showed Benton leading by 78 votes, so it well could be overturned. Should Probst win, Democrats will control the State Senate, no ifs ands or buts. However, if Benton wins, it seems likely that two moderate Democrats will vote with the Republicans and swing them control of the chamber, in exchange for which one of these dissidents will become Majority Leader. So...we may soon have a second New York State Senate to entertain us.

Wisconsin: Prior to the election, the State House was controlled by Republicans and the State Senate was controlled by Democrats. Republicans gained control of the State Senate.

This leaves just 3-5 states with split control of the chamber (definitely Iowa, Kentucky, New Hampshire; also maybe New York and Washington).

[Miles]

SC's legislature is more Democratic than NC's. Just goes to show how horrendous the gerrymander in NC was.

[Mr.Phips]

SC's legislature is more Democratic than NC's. Just goes to show how horrendous the gerrymander in NC was.

That's what Democrats get for ignoring the state legislative elections in 2010 in North Carolina.  In the Senate, more focus by the DNC and DLCC here could have probably saved SD-10, SD-19, SD-50, SD-11, SD-05 and SD-08 if Soles ran for reelection(his shooting incident probably would have been a positive in this country).  This would have given Democrats control of the state Senate at 25-25 with the Dem Lt. Governor breaking the tie.  In the House, HD-04, HD-06, HD-41, HD-46, HD-49, HD-51, HD-77, and HD-93.  This would have given Democrats a 60-59 majority in the State House.


This would have at least given Democrats a fair drawn map that would have given them at least a chance to keep their majorities.  It also would have likely saved them NC-07, NC-08, and NC-11 and given them a chance to win back NC-02 under a fair drawn map. 

The loss of this legislature and the NY State Senate in 2010 are two stupid, easily avoidable mistakes that would have probably allowed Democrats to come out of the 2012 elections with an extra six House seats, giving Republicans a 228-207 majority instead of a 234-201 one, leaving them needing just 11 seats in 2014 rather than 17. 

[minionofmidas]

I just went to look up on how the Native districts in Montana fared... they look exactly like during the last decade, did Montana even redistrict its legislature yet?
Anyhow, all three seats lost to White Republicans in 2010 have been regained, so the 3 Senators and 6 Representatives vote bloc is back in full force (2 of the Senators were not up for re-election in 2012. Then again, the Senator reelected in 2010 was where both House districts nested in it were lost).
And the beautifully named Frosty Calf Boss Ribs has successfully retread. The guy who beat her two years ago was some complete nutter, btw, as happens with paper candidates who win somehow.

CORRECTION: One of the 3 Republican winners of 2010 - the one ousted by the smallest margin in 2010, in the Northern Cheyenne based HD - was Native American.

[nclib]

Do any states have a veto-proof majority with an opposite party Governor?

[Vosem]

Do any states have a veto-proof majority with an opposite party Governor?

I think Missouri does. But I'm not sure.

[politicallefty]

Do any states have a veto-proof majority with an opposite party Governor?

I think Missouri does. But I'm not sure.

It does, and it is the only one.

There used to be quite a bit more a few years ago, but almost all of the solid states (save a few exceptions such as the current small handful of Southern Democratic governors) are now electing governors in sync with their partisan leaning (2010 seemed to be something of a realignment in that aspect).

Edit: Actually, Arkansas has a Republican veto-proof majority over Democratic Governor Beebe since an override there only requires a simple majority.

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

http://www.ncsl.org/legislatures-elections/elections/statevote-charts.aspx

Thank you, Mr smoltchanov. Mapified:

[State houses]

[State senates]

[Meeker]

The Nebraska Unicameral is unofficially 30R-17D-2I, fwiw.

[socaldem]

Democrats just won a 55th seat in the 80-member state assembly with Steve Fox who won the Antelope Valley-based 36th district.

The big story out of California demographically has been the diversification of traditionally GOP areas in the Antelope Valley, the Inland Empire, and Orange County. This is starting to translate into electoral success.

What's scary for the CA GOP is the dems still have room to grow--they lost a state assembly race in Redlands/Rancho Cucamonga by just 1000 votes and Dems were also close in the Corona and Ventura-based seats that had been written off. Dems pick up the Ventura seat next cycle no question. Plus I could see some of the OC and SD seats and the Modesto assembly seats competitive in an open seat situation. The Dem open seats in Torrance, the SGV, Sacramento, and Merced were supposed to be vulneralbe and they weren't really close and in each of those areas, demographics is moving away from the GOP...not sure where they can pick up seats really, except maybe getting back AD36 (which they should have never lost).

Dems have 39 seats in the state senate...and have the potential to pick-up the Salinas/Modesto seat...though the Santa Ana/Huntington Beach seat will be in danger. But a no name joke opponent held the State Senate Majority Leader to a 10-point win in the North Orange county senate district, so that's another seat for the GOP to be worried about. There were a surprising number of no-name Dems getting 40-something % of the vote... could we see a 41-9 or less (maybe the Antelope Valley seat or the North SD seat would also be vulnerable) state senate in 4 years? Not out of the question....we are looking like Massachusetts here!

CA-10, CA-25, and CA-37 are ripe for the picking. I also think CA-01, CA-39, and CA-49 have potential to move to Dems in the right cycle, withe the right recruit, or in an open seat situation (CA-39).

I can literally see a time in 10 years where the GOP has maybe 5-8 state senators and congressmen...sad.