State Capitals that went for Romney

[Schiff for Senate]

Anybody interested in me spending potentially an hour or two out of my life to provide additional details pls post, since really 2012 GE isn't at the top of my radar right now, but hate to waste my time if there is little or no interest.

I found a better way to find out how state capitols vote: https://www.bestplaces.net/. It's a free online site where you can research cities, and are provided with a variety of information, statistics, and details, including politics. They then tell you if the city went Republican or Democratic in the last 6 presidential elections and if the margin was in the single digits or in the double digits. It's not as detailed as your statistics, of course, but you don't need to waste hours researching their exact voting patterns.

[Schiff for Senate]

So far it looks like of the capitals in counties Romney won;

Obama won Salem, Salt Lake City, Phoenix, Helena, Lincoln, Topeka, and Annapolis or at least I think it safe to assume he won these even if they were close.

Charleston, Boise, and Springfield still seem unclear to any clarification would be great.

It looks like Romney won Carson City, Cheyenne, Bismarck, Pierre, and Jefferson City, so he won anywhere between 5-8 state capitals.

Thanks to https://www.bestplaces.net/, I can tell you definitively how these cities went in 2012.

Somewhat surprisingly, Boise went Republican in 2020. In fact it's voted red since at least 1996 (the stats are only given 2000-onward, though I think it's safe to assume Boise went non-forum red in 1996), and with double-digit margins in 2000, 2004 and 2012.

Also surprisingly, Springfield votes red too. It went red in 2000, 2004, 2012, 2016 and 2020, only voting blue in 2008, although Romney in 2012 (and Trump in 2016 and 2020) won by single-digit margins.

Not at all surprisingly, Charleston is quite Republican. It last went Democratic in 2000 and gave Romney and Trump (twice) double-digit margins.

As for the others, you're right about the cities you guessed went for Romney - Carson City backed him, as did Cheyenne, Bismarck, Pierre and Jefferson City. In fact, all those cities, with the exception of Carson City, supported Romney by double digits.


For Obama, you're completely incorrect (no offense meant) - all of the ones you predicted went for him actually went for Romney.
Salem went for Romney by single digits; SLC, as I suspected, went for him by double digits (I told you he won it because muh Mormonism and overperformance in North UT); and Lincoln went red by single digits. Very surprisingly, Phoenix went for Romney by single digits too (I thought it would be safe Democratic), and so did Helena and Topeka (less surprising). Annapolis, pretty surprisingly, gave Romney a win as well.

[Schiff for Senate]

So I thought it might be interesting to run the numbers for Boise, Idaho for the 2012 Presidential election since this thread caught my eye the other day and I realized that I hadn't run the data for most of the places on the list.

Obama clearly won Boise Idaho in 2012 by significant margins.

Methodology standard--- here I took the 2015 Mayoral precinct report from Boise and matched it against 2012 Precincts and municipal results from other places and tried to screen out the small number of obvious tiny Boise splits.... there were a few where Boise & Eagle City overlapped and by default coded those for the largest of the two vote totals.

For precinct coding I used the same coding by city between '12 and '16, so slightly different than my initial 2016 GE PRES calculations previously posted elsewhere. (Precinct 2107 was reassigned from Meridian to Boise in my math).

For 2020 precinct coding gets slightly trickier, so I used the 2019 Boise Mayoral precinct coding combined with looking at the Ada County Precinct Map.

New precincts added in Boise were pretty much A/B splits, and the rest of the new precincts were either in unincorporated areas SW of Boise OR in the fast growing suburb / exurb of Meridian.

NOTE: 2012 & 2016 GE PRES results do NOT include Write-In Ballots.

2020 GE PRES results DO include Write-In Ballots.

Tried to be consistent with my 2012-2020 format, which I used for Cheyenne:


2012:   Romney- 44,161 (44.5%); Obama- 51,391  (51.8%)  TV-99,295  +7.3% D  
2016:   Trump- 38,667 (37.4%); Clinton- 50,626  (49.0%)  TV-103,299   +11.6% D (+4.3D Swing)
2020:   Trump- 46,954 (37.2%); Biden-  74,036 (58.6%)   TV-126,257    +21.4%D (+9.8D Swing)

It is also patently clear that the overwhelming majority of "New Voters" in Boise benefited Biden between the '16 and '20 GEs, and not just 3rd Party Voters in '16 (LBT, GRN, & McMullin) disproportionately benefiting the DEMs.

Meanwhile my precinct coding in '16 and '18 might have slightly different results, but this is still illustrative of some of the shifts in Boise in a few down-ballot races over that time. (Haven't run the 2020 numbers and adjusted precinct coding data, but it gives an idea of how rapidly DEM the City of Boise has moved between even just '16>'20).

Sorry, but Boise supported Romney...and by double digits: https://www.bestplaces.net/voting/city/idaho/boise

[Schiff for Senate]

I think the takeaway from this thread is that we shouldn't assume all state capitols are automatically liberal, especially not in 2012 and not if the county they're in votes very Republican.

[NOVA Green]

So I thought it might be interesting to run the numbers for Boise, Idaho for the 2012 Presidential election since this thread caught my eye the other day and I realized that I hadn't run the data for most of the places on the list.

Obama clearly won Boise Idaho in 2012 by significant margins.

Methodology standard--- here I took the 2015 Mayoral precinct report from Boise and matched it against 2012 Precincts and municipal results from other places and tried to screen out the small number of obvious tiny Boise splits.... there were a few where Boise & Eagle City overlapped and by default coded those for the largest of the two vote totals.

For precinct coding I used the same coding by city between '12 and '16, so slightly different than my initial 2016 GE PRES calculations previously posted elsewhere. (Precinct 2107 was reassigned from Meridian to Boise in my math).

For 2020 precinct coding gets slightly trickier, so I used the 2019 Boise Mayoral precinct coding combined with looking at the Ada County Precinct Map.

New precincts added in Boise were pretty much A/B splits, and the rest of the new precincts were either in unincorporated areas SW of Boise OR in the fast growing suburb / exurb of Meridian.

NOTE: 2012 & 2016 GE PRES results do NOT include Write-In Ballots.

2020 GE PRES results DO include Write-In Ballots.

Tried to be consistent with my 2012-2020 format, which I used for Cheyenne:


2012:   Romney- 44,161 (44.5%); Obama- 51,391  (51.8%)  TV-99,295  +7.3% D  
2016:   Trump- 38,667 (37.4%); Clinton- 50,626  (49.0%)  TV-103,299   +11.6% D (+4.3D Swing)
2020:   Trump- 46,954 (37.2%); Biden-  74,036 (58.6%)   TV-126,257    +21.4%D (+9.8D Swing)

It is also patently clear that the overwhelming majority of "New Voters" in Boise benefited Biden between the '16 and '20 GEs, and not just 3rd Party Voters in '16 (LBT, GRN, & McMullin) disproportionately benefiting the DEMs.

Meanwhile my precinct coding in '16 and '18 might have slightly different results, but this is still illustrative of some of the shifts in Boise in a few down-ballot races over that time. (Haven't run the 2020 numbers and adjusted precinct coding data, but it gives an idea of how rapidly DEM the City of Boise has moved between even just '16>'20).

Sorry, but Boise supported Romney...and by double digits: https://www.bestplaces.net/voting/city/idaho/boise

I am assuming this is a joke post, since anybody who believes that bestplaces.net is a legitimate source of election returns is either woefully ignorant OR deliberately to use a British term "taking the piss".

No time nor energy for deliberate trolling when it comes to election results.

Anybody who wants to double-check the 2012 GE PRES Election numbers can go directly to the original source:

https://adacounty.id.gov/elections/election-results/#2012_Elections

[NOVA Green]

So far it looks like of the capitals in counties Romney won;

Obama won Salem, Salt Lake City, Phoenix, Helena, Lincoln, Topeka, and Annapolis or at least I think it safe to assume he won these even if they were close.

Charleston, Boise, and Springfield still seem unclear to any clarification would be great.

It looks like Romney won Carson City, Cheyenne, Bismarck, Pierre, and Jefferson City, so he won anywhere between 5-8 state capitals.

Thanks to https://www.bestplaces.net/, I can tell you definitively how these cities went in 2012.

Somewhat surprisingly, Boise went Republican in 2020. In fact it's voted red since at least 1996 (the stats are only given 2000-onward, though I think it's safe to assume Boise went non-forum red in 1996), and with double-digit margins in 2000, 2004 and 2012.

Also surprisingly, Springfield votes red too. It went red in 2000, 2004, 2012, 2016 and 2020, only voting blue in 2008, although Romney in 2012 (and Trump in 2016 and 2020) won by single-digit margins.

Not at all surprisingly, Charleston is quite Republican. It last went Democratic in 2000 and gave Romney and Trump (twice) double-digit margins.

As for the others, you're right about the cities you guessed went for Romney - Carson City backed him, as did Cheyenne, Bismarck, Pierre and Jefferson City. In fact, all those cities, with the exception of Carson City, supported Romney by double digits.


For Obama, you're completely incorrect (no offense meant) - all of the ones you predicted went for him actually went for Romney.
Salem went for Romney by single digits; SLC, as I suspected, went for him by double digits (I told you he won it because muh Mormonism and overperformance in North UT); and Lincoln went red by single digits. Very surprisingly, Phoenix went for Romney by single digits too (I thought it would be safe Democratic), and so did Helena and Topeka (less surprising). Annapolis, pretty surprisingly, gave Romney a win as well.

Go home... and don't bet on bestplaces.com

Out of your element Donny, although again I strongly suspect you are being frivolous in the extreme or "taking a Mickey" (Once again to use another British term). 

[Schiff for Senate]

So far it looks like of the capitals in counties Romney won;

Obama won Salem, Salt Lake City, Phoenix, Helena, Lincoln, Topeka, and Annapolis or at least I think it safe to assume he won these even if they were close.

Charleston, Boise, and Springfield still seem unclear to any clarification would be great.

It looks like Romney won Carson City, Cheyenne, Bismarck, Pierre, and Jefferson City, so he won anywhere between 5-8 state capitals.

Thanks to https://www.bestplaces.net/, I can tell you definitively how these cities went in 2012.

Somewhat surprisingly, Boise went Republican in 2020. In fact it's voted red since at least 1996 (the stats are only given 2000-onward, though I think it's safe to assume Boise went non-forum red in 1996), and with double-digit margins in 2000, 2004 and 2012.

Also surprisingly, Springfield votes red too. It went red in 2000, 2004, 2012, 2016 and 2020, only voting blue in 2008, although Romney in 2012 (and Trump in 2016 and 2020) won by single-digit margins.

Not at all surprisingly, Charleston is quite Republican. It last went Democratic in 2000 and gave Romney and Trump (twice) double-digit margins.

As for the others, you're right about the cities you guessed went for Romney - Carson City backed him, as did Cheyenne, Bismarck, Pierre and Jefferson City. In fact, all those cities, with the exception of Carson City, supported Romney by double digits.


For Obama, you're completely incorrect (no offense meant) - all of the ones you predicted went for him actually went for Romney.
Salem went for Romney by single digits; SLC, as I suspected, went for him by double digits (I told you he won it because muh Mormonism and overperformance in North UT); and Lincoln went red by single digits. Very surprisingly, Phoenix went for Romney by single digits too (I thought it would be safe Democratic), and so did Helena and Topeka (less surprising). Annapolis, pretty surprisingly, gave Romney a win as well.

Go home... and don't bet on bestplaces.com

Out of your element Donny, although again I strongly suspect you are being frivolous in the extreme or "taking a Mickey" (Once again to use another British term).  

No, I genuinely considered it a reliable site. Though in retrospect I considered it kind of suspect that Phoenix went for Romney.

[NOVA Green]

So far it looks like of the capitals in counties Romney won;

Obama won Salem, Salt Lake City, Phoenix, Helena, Lincoln, Topeka, and Annapolis or at least I think it safe to assume he won these even if they were close.

Charleston, Boise, and Springfield still seem unclear to any clarification would be great.

It looks like Romney won Carson City, Cheyenne, Bismarck, Pierre, and Jefferson City, so he won anywhere between 5-8 state capitals.

Thanks to https://www.bestplaces.net/, I can tell you definitively how these cities went in 2012.

Somewhat surprisingly, Boise went Republican in 2020. In fact it's voted red since at least 1996 (the stats are only given 2000-onward, though I think it's safe to assume Boise went non-forum red in 1996), and with double-digit margins in 2000, 2004 and 2012.

Also surprisingly, Springfield votes red too. It went red in 2000, 2004, 2012, 2016 and 2020, only voting blue in 2008, although Romney in 2012 (and Trump in 2016 and 2020) won by single-digit margins.

Not at all surprisingly, Charleston is quite Republican. It last went Democratic in 2000 and gave Romney and Trump (twice) double-digit margins.

As for the others, you're right about the cities you guessed went for Romney - Carson City backed him, as did Cheyenne, Bismarck, Pierre and Jefferson City. In fact, all those cities, with the exception of Carson City, supported Romney by double digits.


For Obama, you're completely incorrect (no offense meant) - all of the ones you predicted went for him actually went for Romney.
Salem went for Romney by single digits; SLC, as I suspected, went for him by double digits (I told you he won it because muh Mormonism and overperformance in North UT); and Lincoln went red by single digits. Very surprisingly, Phoenix went for Romney by single digits too (I thought it would be safe Democratic), and so did Helena and Topeka (less surprising). Annapolis, pretty surprisingly, gave Romney a win as well.

Go home... and don't bet on bestplaces.com

Out of your element Donny, although again I strongly suspect you are being frivolous in the extreme or "taking a Mickey" (Once again to use another British term).  

No, I genuinely considered it a reliable site. Though in retrospect I considered it kind of suspect that Phoenix went for Romney.

Fair enough... you seem like a nice person and apologies if I might have come across as a bit sarcastic (Which was not my intent).

There are a decent number of posters on Atlas, many of whom have been posting here for years who have been collecting and dissecting precinct results and in many cases consolidating to the municipal level.

For example, I first started collecting and analyzing precinct results for Oregon shortly after the 1988 General Election and combined that data with precinct maps which I could obtain, coded precincts by place, etc... way back when I was in High School in the late '80s / early '90s.

In many cases it might easily take an hour or two for larger and more complicated cities to crunch and code precinct data, since frequently municipal boundaries changes, split-precincts emerge, etc, so naturally when individuals question that based upon sources which are dubious at best, without providing legitimate arguments based upon their own analysis or credible alternative sources, it makes it look like I am pulling numbers from thin air.

I will not go through the exercise of attempting to analyze bestplaces.net source data (Unless I am looking at real estate value etc....), but what I do suspect is that any election data they are crunching is more to do with a "Metro Area" type numbers vs City / Municipal Level data.

If you are interested further in information regarding where to obtain official precinct data, how to crunch and code county / state precinct data into municipal numbers more than happy to provide tips.

You can always PM me if you don't want to post on this thread....

It's pretty cool that you are very interested in detailed 2012 election results and breakdowns by place so no hard feelings on my end at all, and might continue to take a look at a few of the other cities on the list (time permitting) since it's overall a bit slow in terms of other election data these days.

[Schiff for Senate]

So far it looks like of the capitals in counties Romney won;

Obama won Salem, Salt Lake City, Phoenix, Helena, Lincoln, Topeka, and Annapolis or at least I think it safe to assume he won these even if they were close.

Charleston, Boise, and Springfield still seem unclear to any clarification would be great.

It looks like Romney won Carson City, Cheyenne, Bismarck, Pierre, and Jefferson City, so he won anywhere between 5-8 state capitals.

Thanks to https://www.bestplaces.net/, I can tell you definitively how these cities went in 2012.

Somewhat surprisingly, Boise went Republican in 2020. In fact it's voted red since at least 1996 (the stats are only given 2000-onward, though I think it's safe to assume Boise went non-forum red in 1996), and with double-digit margins in 2000, 2004 and 2012.

Also surprisingly, Springfield votes red too. It went red in 2000, 2004, 2012, 2016 and 2020, only voting blue in 2008, although Romney in 2012 (and Trump in 2016 and 2020) won by single-digit margins.

Not at all surprisingly, Charleston is quite Republican. It last went Democratic in 2000 and gave Romney and Trump (twice) double-digit margins.

As for the others, you're right about the cities you guessed went for Romney - Carson City backed him, as did Cheyenne, Bismarck, Pierre and Jefferson City. In fact, all those cities, with the exception of Carson City, supported Romney by double digits.


For Obama, you're completely incorrect (no offense meant) - all of the ones you predicted went for him actually went for Romney.
Salem went for Romney by single digits; SLC, as I suspected, went for him by double digits (I told you he won it because muh Mormonism and overperformance in North UT); and Lincoln went red by single digits. Very surprisingly, Phoenix went for Romney by single digits too (I thought it would be safe Democratic), and so did Helena and Topeka (less surprising). Annapolis, pretty surprisingly, gave Romney a win as well.

Go home... and don't bet on bestplaces.com

Out of your element Donny, although again I strongly suspect you are being frivolous in the extreme or "taking a Mickey" (Once again to use another British term).  

No, I genuinely considered it a reliable site. Though in retrospect I considered it kind of suspect that Phoenix went for Romney.

Fair enough... you seem like a nice person and apologies if I might have come across as a bit sarcastic (Which was not my intent).

There are a decent number of posters on Atlas, many of whom have been posting here for years who have been collecting and dissecting precinct results and in many cases consolidating to the municipal level.

For example, I first started collecting and analyzing precinct results for Oregon shortly after the 1988 General Election and combined that data with precinct maps which I could obtain, coded precincts by place, etc... way back when I was in High School in the late '80s / early '90s.

In many cases it might easily take an hour or two for larger and more complicated cities to crunch and code precinct data, since frequently municipal boundaries changes, split-precincts emerge, etc, so naturally when individuals question that based upon sources which are dubious at best, without providing legitimate arguments based upon their own analysis or credible alternative sources, it makes it look like I am pulling numbers from thin air.

I will not go through the exercise of attempting to analyze bestplaces.net source data (Unless I am looking at real estate value etc....), but what I do suspect is that any election data they are crunching is more to do with a "Metro Area" type numbers vs City / Municipal Level data.

If you are interested further in information regarding where to obtain official precinct data, how to crunch and code county / state precinct data into municipal numbers more than happy to provide tips.

You can always PM me if you don't want to post on this thread....

It's pretty cool that you are very interested in detailed 2012 election results and breakdowns by place so no hard feelings on my end at all, and might continue to take a look at a few of the other cities on the list (time permitting) since it's overall a bit slow in terms of other election data these days.

No, it's fine...I'm not that interested in city data or anything, it's just that I by chance came across I site where they were showing city results and thought of this thread and some of the unresolved cities on it. But I'm not that interested or anything in how the cities voted; you can put more data if you or others want it, but I don't really mind if you don't put any more data.

[NOVA Green]

So far it looks like of the capitals in counties Romney won;

Obama won Salem, Salt Lake City, Phoenix, Helena, Lincoln, Topeka, and Annapolis or at least I think it safe to assume he won these even if they were close.

Charleston, Boise, and Springfield still seem unclear to any clarification would be great.

It looks like Romney won Carson City, Cheyenne, Bismarck, Pierre, and Jefferson City, so he won anywhere between 5-8 state capitals.

Thanks to https://www.bestplaces.net/, I can tell you definitively how these cities went in 2012.

Somewhat surprisingly, Boise went Republican in 2020. In fact it's voted red since at least 1996 (the stats are only given 2000-onward, though I think it's safe to assume Boise went non-forum red in 1996), and with double-digit margins in 2000, 2004 and 2012.

Also surprisingly, Springfield votes red too. It went red in 2000, 2004, 2012, 2016 and 2020, only voting blue in 2008, although Romney in 2012 (and Trump in 2016 and 2020) won by single-digit margins.

Not at all surprisingly, Charleston is quite Republican. It last went Democratic in 2000 and gave Romney and Trump (twice) double-digit margins.

As for the others, you're right about the cities you guessed went for Romney - Carson City backed him, as did Cheyenne, Bismarck, Pierre and Jefferson City. In fact, all those cities, with the exception of Carson City, supported Romney by double digits.


For Obama, you're completely incorrect (no offense meant) - all of the ones you predicted went for him actually went for Romney.
Salem went for Romney by single digits; SLC, as I suspected, went for him by double digits (I told you he won it because muh Mormonism and overperformance in North UT); and Lincoln went red by single digits. Very surprisingly, Phoenix went for Romney by single digits too (I thought it would be safe Democratic), and so did Helena and Topeka (less surprising). Annapolis, pretty surprisingly, gave Romney a win as well.

Go home... and don't bet on bestplaces.com

Out of your element Donny, although again I strongly suspect you are being frivolous in the extreme or "taking a Mickey" (Once again to use another British term).  

No, I genuinely considered it a reliable site. Though in retrospect I considered it kind of suspect that Phoenix went for Romney.

Fair enough... you seem like a nice person and apologies if I might have come across as a bit sarcastic (Which was not my intent).

There are a decent number of posters on Atlas, many of whom have been posting here for years who have been collecting and dissecting precinct results and in many cases consolidating to the municipal level.

For example, I first started collecting and analyzing precinct results for Oregon shortly after the 1988 General Election and combined that data with precinct maps which I could obtain, coded precincts by place, etc... way back when I was in High School in the late '80s / early '90s.

In many cases it might easily take an hour or two for larger and more complicated cities to crunch and code precinct data, since frequently municipal boundaries changes, split-precincts emerge, etc, so naturally when individuals question that based upon sources which are dubious at best, without providing legitimate arguments based upon their own analysis or credible alternative sources, it makes it look like I am pulling numbers from thin air.

I will not go through the exercise of attempting to analyze bestplaces.net source data (Unless I am looking at real estate value etc....), but what I do suspect is that any election data they are crunching is more to do with a "Metro Area" type numbers vs City / Municipal Level data.

If you are interested further in information regarding where to obtain official precinct data, how to crunch and code county / state precinct data into municipal numbers more than happy to provide tips.

You can always PM me if you don't want to post on this thread....

It's pretty cool that you are very interested in detailed 2012 election results and breakdowns by place so no hard feelings on my end at all, and might continue to take a look at a few of the other cities on the list (time permitting) since it's overall a bit slow in terms of other election data these days.

No, it's fine...I'm not that interested in city data or anything, it's just that I by chance came across I site where they were showing city results and thought of this thread and some of the unresolved cities on it. But I'm not that interested or anything in how the cities voted; you can put more data if you or others want it, but I don't really mind if you don't put any more data.

Totally cool CentristRepublican...

Pretty sure I've posted links to sites on Atlas in my posting career over the years and excited to share only to find out they weren't the "data gold mine" I thought they were and other posters challenged me on my sources.

[cg41386]

Sorry to dredge up an old thread, but bestplaces uses COUNTY data, not city level. There are no websites that I am aware of that has easily accessible election results by city.