State Capitals that went for Romney
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  State Capitals that went for Romney
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mileslunn
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« on: November 23, 2012, 09:43:31 PM »

I know they gave the county by county breakdown, so I was wondering which state capitals of the ones below went for Romney vs. Obama.  I assumed Obama won everyone in the states where he won the county they are located in.  Any thoughts

Juneau, AK - Alaska does give county by county breakdown, but pretty sure Obama easily won this.
Salem, OR - Romney won both Marion and Polk County although considering they include some rural area, I wouldn't be totally surprised if Obama narrowly won Salem
Boise, ID - Ada County went for Romney but I know last time around Obama won Boise despite losing Ada County so it would be interesting if he won it or narrowly missed it.
Carson City, NV - Since the county and city are the same, Romney definitely won this.
Salt Lake City, UT - Pretty sure Obama won this as the results in Salt Lake County were similiar to 2004 when Kerry when Salt Lake City by over 15 points but lost the county by around 20 points.  My understanding is the city itself is quite a bit more liberal than the suburbs which are generally very conservative
Phoenix, AZ - Pretty sure this went Obama as usually Phoenix goes Democrat, while the suburbs where 2/3 of the population live tend to go around 60% Republican.
Helena, MT - I am guessing Obama probably won this as Lewis & Clark County was 50-47 for Romney and I would suspect the rural parts went heavily for Romney, but would be good to get a confirmation on this one.
Cheyenne, WY - Almost positive Romney won this, maybe even with over 60%
Bismarck, ND - Definitely Romney, likely over 60%
Pierre, SD - Definitely Romney, likely over 60%
Lincoln, NE - Probably narrowly Obama as Romney barely won Lancaster County and the small part of the population outside of Lincoln probably went heavily for Romney.
Topeka, KS - I would think Obama as Romney only narrowly won Shawnee County and usually the suburbs and rural areas tend to go heavily GOPl
Oklahoma City, OK - If I had to make a guess, I would say Romney as the city straddles three counties although considering how massively the surrounding areas went for Romney, it is possible but unlikely Obama won here.
Jefferson City, MO - Considering how heavily Cole County went for Romney, I suspect he won this pretty handidly although probably not quite as massively as the county.
Springfield, IL - Hard to say as Springfield has a sizable although not huge African-American community thus why it would lean Obama, but at the same time it contains more than half the county's population so that means the suburbs and rural parts would have had to have gone massively Romney if Obama won Springfield.
Annapolis, MD - Almost positive Obama won here as Anne Arundel County barely went for Romney and looking at the precinct map in the Washington Post it looks like Obama won most of them in Annapolis never mind I suspect the more affluent suburbs of Baltimore is where Romney was probably strongest here.
Charleston, WV - Hard to say as although Romney won the county by more than 10%, I suspect the suburbs and rural areas are far more Republican as well as the city itself as 15% African-American and only 80% white so assuming the minority vote overwhelmingly went for Obama, and Obama got at least in the low 40s amongst whites due to the large civil service, then it is possible, but need confirmation here.

Any thoughts here.

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Benj
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« Reply #1 on: November 23, 2012, 09:57:07 PM »

I know they gave the county by county breakdown, so I was wondering which state capitals of the ones below went for Romney vs. Obama.  I assumed Obama won everyone in the states where he won the county they are located in.  Any thoughts

Juneau, AK - Alaska does give county by county breakdown, but pretty sure Obama easily won this.

Juneau is very D. Obama won it. (Obama also won all of the State Senate districts in and around Juneau.) Even when Alaska was voting much more Republican than it is now, Juneau was always the Democrats' stronghold in the state.

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Salem was likely for Obama. The rural parts of Marion County are very conservative (the part in Polk County is tiny).

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I think probably Obama, but not certain.

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Yup. SLC was like 70% Obama in 2008. He definitely won it.

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Phoenix is pretty marginal, actually, but I think Kerry won it by a point or two (and Obama by about 5 in 2008), so Obama probably did in 2012 as well.

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Sounds right to me.

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I think Obama won both handily in 2008, so likely won them again in 2012.

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Pretty sure this was McCain in 2008 and not close, so almost certainly Romney this year.

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Yeah, Jefferson City is the weird stand-out super-R capital city.

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I would guess it voted for Obama; the rural parts of the county were around 65-70% McCain in 2008, and the suburbs are quite conservative. But hard to know for certain, especially given the big swing.

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Annapolis is very Democratic, probably 65% Obama or so. The conservatives in Anne Arundel County are in places like Lake Shore and Cape St. Claire (military and retired military) as well as the Baltimore suburbs.

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Would like to know this one as well. IIRC, we don't know who won in 2008, either, though it was very likely Obama that year.
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Jackson
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« Reply #2 on: November 23, 2012, 11:00:44 PM »

Obama definitely won Charleston in 2008.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #3 on: November 24, 2012, 12:12:30 AM »

While still needs to verify, it looks Romney's wins were only Carson City, NV; Cheyenne, WY; Bismarck, ND; Pierre, SD; Oklahoma City, OK; and Jefferson City, MO.  Boise, ID and Charleston, WV and perhaps Springfield, IL we will have to wait until we get the precinct results.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #4 on: November 24, 2012, 08:32:27 PM »

I'll bet you anything Obama won all those except Carson City, Oklahoma City, and Pierre. The urban/rural split is that wide now.
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Snowstalker Mk. II
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« Reply #5 on: November 24, 2012, 09:03:37 PM »

FTR, Obama won Harrisburg quite handily. Tongue
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memphis
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« Reply #6 on: November 26, 2012, 02:18:05 PM »

Nashville is coextensive with Davidson County. An easy Obama win.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #7 on: November 26, 2012, 05:20:37 PM »

I'll bet you anything Obama won all those except Carson City, Oklahoma City, and Pierre. The urban/rural split is that wide now.

Romney definitely won Bismarck, Cheyenne, and Jefferson City.  I also think Charleston, WV is a toss-up but beyond that it looks like Obama won most of them.
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RBH
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« Reply #8 on: November 26, 2012, 05:24:31 PM »

I'll bet you anything Obama won all those except Carson City, Oklahoma City, and Pierre. The urban/rural split is that wide now.

Romney definitely won Bismarck, Cheyenne, and Jefferson City.  I also think Charleston, WV is a toss-up but beyond that it looks like Obama won most of them.

Romney won Jeff City by a 58.9-39.4 margin.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #9 on: November 26, 2012, 05:43:36 PM »

Romney won Jeff City by a 58.9-39.4 margin.

I'm a little skeptical that Romney would win a central city as big as Jefferson City by 20 points (at least in most states).

Also, I'm almost absolutely certain Obama won Charleston WV.
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CountryRoads
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« Reply #10 on: November 26, 2012, 06:04:40 PM »

Romney won Jeff City by a 58.9-39.4 margin.

I'm a little skeptical that Romney would win a central city as big as Jefferson City by 20 points (at least in most states).

Also, I'm almost absolutely certain Obama won Charleston WV.

No. Just stop.

It's not "certain" that Obama won Charleston. I'd know, I live in West Virginia. My county (Monongalia) voted 53%-43% Romney. I'm somewhat confident that Romney won Charleston by like 2% considering that my county went from Obama in 2008 to heavy Romney in 2012. I live in a collegetown.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #11 on: November 26, 2012, 06:27:51 PM »

It's not "certain" that Obama won Charleston. I'd know, I live in West Virginia.

Romney won the county by less than 12%. The city has only 50,000 peeps but the county has almost 200,000.

By comparison, Romney managed to win my home county (Campbell KY) by 20%, but Obama won the largest central city (Newport) pretty handily. The city has 20,000 while the county has 90,000. By that standard, Obama probably won Charleston by about 8%.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #12 on: November 26, 2012, 08:48:44 PM »

It's not "certain" that Obama won Charleston. I'd know, I live in West Virginia.

Romney won the county by less than 12%. The city has only 50,000 peeps but the county has almost 200,000.

By comparison, Romney managed to win my home county (Campbell KY) by 20%, but Obama won the largest central city (Newport) pretty handily. The city has 20,000 while the county has 90,000. By that standard, Obama probably won Charleston by about 8%.

Obama won Charleston, WV in 2008 with 58.2% of the vote versus McCain's 41.0%. Even if the city swung to Romney by as much as Kanawha County did, that would still leave Obama winning Charleston by something like 52/47. I find it hard to believe that the city of Charleston swung to Romney more than the overall county.
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RBH
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« Reply #13 on: November 26, 2012, 11:45:05 PM »

Romney won Jeff City by a 58.9-39.4 margin.

I'm a little skeptical that Romney would win a central city as big as Jefferson City by 20 points (at least in most states).

I did the math by adding up the precincts here: http://www.colecounty.org/clerk/files/11-06-12_Abs.pdf
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mileslunn
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« Reply #14 on: November 27, 2012, 01:06:54 AM »

So far it looks like of the capitals in counties Romney won;

Obama won Salem, Salt Lake City, Phoenix, Helena, Lincoln, Topeka, and Annapolis or at least I think it safe to assume he won these even if they were close.

Charleston, Boise, and Springfield still seem unclear to any clarification would be great.

It looks like Romney won Carson City, Cheyenne, Bismarck, Pierre, and Jefferson City, so he won anywhere between 5-8 state capitals.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #15 on: November 28, 2012, 01:51:07 PM »

Also, Kanawha County contains Sissonville, the town where those Nazis kept attacking the girl because she opposed the war. Sissonville is one of very few places in America that truly needs to have the federal government come in and take over the town.

I bet Sissonville was 90% for Romney. That accounts for much of his margin countywide.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #16 on: November 28, 2012, 03:31:33 PM »

Also, Kanawha County contains Sissonville, the town where those Nazis kept attacking the girl because she opposed the war. Sissonville is one of very few places in America that truly needs to have the federal government come in and take over the town.

I bet Sissonville was 90% for Romney. That accounts for much of his margin countywide.

Again, you're wrong.
1. Sissonville is in 70-75% Romney.
2. It has 4.000 inhabitants, which is less than than the half of Romney margin in the whole county (9.000 votes)
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #17 on: November 28, 2012, 03:33:37 PM »

1. Sissonville is in 70-75% Romney.

Wow, what a liberal town - not!
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #18 on: July 18, 2021, 08:10:28 PM »

So far it looks like of the capitals in counties Romney won;

Obama won Salem, Salt Lake City, Phoenix, Helena, Lincoln, Topeka, and Annapolis or at least I think it safe to assume he won these even if they were close.

Charleston, Boise, and Springfield still seem unclear to any clarification would be great.

It looks like Romney won Carson City, Cheyenne, Bismarck, Pierre, and Jefferson City, so he won anywhere between 5-8 state capitals.

I wonder if the 2012 results in these state capitols were ever determined or calculated. Of the cities I bolded, I would assume Obama won all three, thus leaving Romney with five state capitols. Biden actually won Marion County (Salem), Maricopa County (Phoenix), Shawnee County (Topeka), and Anne Arundel County (Annapolis) last year, all of which Obama lost twice, so he almost certainly outperformed Obama in these cities.
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Schiff for Senate
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« Reply #19 on: October 01, 2021, 11:55:13 AM »

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Salt Lake City, UT - Pretty sure Obama won this as the results in Salt Lake County were similiar to 2004 when Kerry when Salt Lake City by over 15 points but lost the county by around 20 points.  My understanding is the city itself is quite a bit more liberal than the suburbs which are generally very conservative

Yup. SLC was like 70% Obama in 2008. He definitely won it.

In 2012, UT, particularly Northern UT (where SLC is) swung hard to Romney because of muh Mormonism. Salt Lake County went red by a good margin - over 20 points. I don't think it's at all impossible Romney won Salt Lake City, though he might've lost given how big it is. And that 70% statistic seems like an exaggeration, to be honest.
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TDAS04
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« Reply #20 on: October 01, 2021, 07:12:11 PM »

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Salt Lake City, UT - Pretty sure Obama won this as the results in Salt Lake County were similiar to 2004 when Kerry when Salt Lake City by over 15 points but lost the county by around 20 points.  My understanding is the city itself is quite a bit more liberal than the suburbs which are generally very conservative

Yup. SLC was like 70% Obama in 2008. He definitely won it.

In 2012, UT, particularly Northern UT (where SLC is) swung hard to Romney because of muh Mormonism. Salt Lake County went red by a good margin - over 20 points. I don't think it's at all impossible Romney won Salt Lake City, though he might've lost given how big it is. And that 70% statistic seems like an exaggeration, to be honest.

I'm pretty sure SLC proper voted for Obama twice (and even for Kerry).  SLC itself is a fairly liberal city.  It's the suburbs that shift the county right.  The city is only a sliver of the county.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #21 on: October 03, 2021, 03:41:25 PM »

So far it looks like of the capitals in counties Romney won;

Obama won Salem, Salt Lake City, Phoenix, Helena, Lincoln, Topeka, and Annapolis or at least I think it safe to assume he won these even if they were close.

Charleston, Boise, and Springfield still seem unclear to any clarification would be great.

It looks like Romney won Carson City, Cheyenne, Bismarck, Pierre, and Jefferson City, so he won anywhere between 5-8 state capitals.

I wonder if the 2012 results in these state capitols were ever determined or calculated. Of the cities I bolded, I would assume Obama won all three, thus leaving Romney with five state capitols. Biden actually won Marion County (Salem), Maricopa County (Phoenix), Shawnee County (Topeka), and Anne Arundel County (Annapolis) last year, all of which Obama lost twice, so he almost certainly outperformed Obama in these cities.

Salem, OR was definitely Obama in 2012.

I ran the numbers for the largest cities in OR for 2012 and 2016 a bit ago (although don't have the exact post I made some years back at my fingertips, but did save a text file to my notepad which I was easily able to search on my PC (There are a few which I didn't calculate at the time, although might have the precinct data-sets floating around in my library somewhere:

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So here are the 2016 Presidential GE Results for the 100 largest cities in Oregon, by order of population....


1.) Portland- 594.7k---- 2016: (78-13 D); 2012: (79-16 D)         +2% Dem Swing
2.) Eugene-  157.3k---  2016: (66-23 D); 2012: (69-26 D)         +0% Swing
3.) Salem-    156.9k---  2016: (50-39 D); 2012: (54-42 D)         +1% Rep Swing
4.) Gresham- 107.2k--- 2016: (49-39 D); 2012: (55-42 D)         +3% Rep Swing
5.) Hillsboro-  107.2k--- 2016: (55-32 D); 2012: (56-39 D)        +6% Dem Swing
6.) Beaverton- 91.4k----2016: (63-25 D)2012: (62-34 D)           +10% Dem Swing
7.) Bend----     87.1k--- 2016: (52-36 D); 2012: (53-44 D)         +7 % Dem Swing
8.) Medford--   75.9k--- 2016: (39-51 R); 2012: (43-54 R)          +1% Rep Swing
9.) Springfield--59.7k--  2016: (47-40 D); 2012: (55-39 D)         +9% Rep Swing
10.) Corvallis-- 54.7k--  2016: (70-18 D); 2012: (69-25 D)        +8 % Dem Swin
11.) Albany---- 50.8k-- 2016:  (40-47 R); 2012: (46-49 R)         +4% Rep Swing
12.) Tigard---   49.0k-- 2016: (58-30 D); 2012: (56-40 D)          +12% Dem Swing   
13.) Lake Oswego- 37.0k- 2016: (63-26 D); 2012: (57-41 D)     +20% Dem Swing
14.) Keizer---   36.7k---   2016: (39-49 R); 2012: (45-53 R)       +2% Rep Swing
15.) Grants Pass-- 34.5k- 2016: (32-58 R); 2012: (39-57 R)      +8 % Rep Swing
16.) McMinville-- 32.2k--- 2016: (47-42 D); 2012: (51-46 D)      +0% Swing
17.) Oregon City- 33.1k-  2016: (45-42 D); 2012: (51-46 D)      +2% Rep Swing
18.) Redmond-- 26.2k--  2016: (31-58 R); 2012: (37-59 R)       +5% Rep Swing
19.) Tualatin-- 26.4k--    2016: (53-34 D); 2012: (51-46 D)      +14% Dem Swing
20.) West Linn- 25.5k-- 2016: (60-29 D); 2012: (55-44 D)         +20% Dem Swing
21.) Woodburn--- 24.1k-- 2016: (51-40 D);  2012: (52-45 D)       +4% Dem Swing
22.) Newberg--- 22.1k--- 2016: (40-45 R); 2012: (43-53 R)         +5% Dem Swing
23.) Roseburg-- 21.2k--- 2016: (34-55 R); 2012: (41-55 R)          +7% Rep Swing
24.) Forest Grove-- 21.6k-- 2016: (47-39 D); 2012: (53-41 D)     +4% Rep Swing
25.) Klamath Falls--- TBD
26.) Milwaukie-  20.4k- 2016: (60-28 D); 2012: (65-32 D)             +1% Rep Swing
27.) Ashland--- 20.4k-- 2016: (79-12 D); 2012: (81-14 D)             +0% Swing
28.) Wilsonville- 19.6k-  2016: (50-38 D); 2012: (48-48* R)          +12% Dem Swing
29.) Sherwood--- 19.4k-- 2016: (47-39 D); 2012: (47-50 R)          +11% Dem Swing
30.) Central Point--- 17.3k-- 2016: (28-63 R); 2012: (34-63 R)      +6% Rep Swing
31.) Hermistion--- TBD
32.) Pendleton---  TBD
33.) Coos Bay---  16.0k-  2016: (40-49 R); 2012: (52-44 D)          +17% Rep Swing
34.) Troutdale--- 16k-     2016: (44-43 D); 2012: (51-46 D)          +4% Rep Swing
35.) Canby----    16.6k-  2016: (40-49 R); 2012: (42-55 R)           +4% Dem Swing
36.) Lebanon-     15.6k-- 2016: (31-54 R); 2012: (42-53 R)         +12% Rep Swing
37.) Dallas--- 14.7k-- 2016:  (34-55 R); 2012: (43-53 R)              +11% Rep Swing
38.) Happy Valley- 14.9k- 2016: (49-41 D); 2012: (46-53 R)        +15% Dem Swing
39.) The Dalles-- 15.3k-- 2016:  (42-45 R); 2012:  (50-47 D)        +6% Rep Swing
40.) La Grande--- TBD
41.) St Helens--- 12.9k-- 2016: (39-47 R); 2012: (54-41 D)        +21% Rep Swing
42.) Cornelius-   12.0k-- 2016:  (52-36 D); 2012: (54-41 D)        +5% Dem Swing
43.) Gladstone- 11.6k-- 2016: (49-39 D); 2012: (54-43 D)          +1% Rep Swing
44.) Ontario----  TBD
45.) Damascus--- Huh Will need to look into further. 
46.) Newport---- 10.1k-- 2016: (55-35 D); 2012: (62-35 D)         +7% Rep Swing
47.) Baker City-  TBD
48.) North Bend--- 9.6k--- 2016: (37-52 R); 2012: (49-48 D)    +16% Rep Swing
49.) Cottage Grove--- 10k-- 2016: (39-49 R); 2012: (51-46 D)  +15% Rep Swing
50.) Sandy-- 9.7k-     2016: (36-52 R); 2012: (46-50 R)            +12% Rep Swing
51.) Monmouth--9.5k-- 2016: (52-34 D); 2012: (53-42 D)        +7% Dem Swing
52.) Astoria-- 9.5k--    2016: (59-29 D); 2012: (64-31 D)           +3% Rep Swing
53.) Prineville---- TBD
54.) Silverton--- 9.3k---   2016: (45-42 D);  2012: (51-46 D)     +2% Rep Swing
55.) Sweet Home--9.0k-- 2016: (26-63 R);  2012: (36-60 R)     +13% Rep Swing
56.) Fairview--- 9.0k---    2016: (52-38 D);  2012: (57-39 D)     +4% Rep Swing
57.) Independence--9.5k--- 2016: (48-39 D); 2012: (54-40 D)  +5% Rep Swing
58.) Eagle Point--- 8.5k--- 2016: (23-69 R); 2012: (31-67 R)    +10% Rep Swing
59.) Florence--- 8.5k-- 2016: (45-46 R); 2012: (50-46 D)         +5% Rep Swing
60.) Molalla--- 8.2k--- 2016: (28-59 R); 2012: (37-59 R)           +9% Rep Swing
61.) Lincoln City--- 7.9k-- 2016: (48-41 D); 2012: (59-37 D)    +15% Rep Swing
62.) Sutherlin--- 7.8k-- 2016:  (26-65 R); 2012: (34-62 R)       +11% Rep Swing
63.) Stayton--- 3.4k-- 2016: (30-58 R); 2012: (37-60 R)          +5% Rep Swing
64.) Hood River--- 7.2k-- 2016: (69-22 D); 2012: (69-27 D)     +5% Dem Swing
65.) Milton-Freewater--- TBD
66.) Umatilla--- TBD
67.) Scappoose- 6.6k--- 2016: (44-42 D); 2012: (53-43 D)       +8% Rep Swing
68.) Seaside--- 6.5k-- 2016: (50-38 D); 2012: (58-38 D)          +8% Rep Swing
69.) Brookings-- 6.3k-- 2016: (31-59 R); 2012: (38-58 R)         +8% Rep Swing
70.) Sheridan--   6.1k-- 2016: (32-57 R); 2012: (43-52 R)         +16% Rep Swing
71.) Talent--     6.1k-- 2016: (62-27 D); 2012: (65-31 D)            +1% Dem Swing
72.) Madras----   6.1k-- 2016: (35-51 R); 2012: (46-50 R)          +22% Rep Swing
73.) Junction City--- 5.5k--- 2016: (33-55 R); 2012: (42-52 R)    +12% Rep Swing
74.) Winston--- 5.4k-- 2016: (25-66 R); 2012: (35-62 R)            +14% Rep Swing
75.) Creswell--- 5.0k-- 2016: (35-53 R); 2016: (44-52 R)            +10% Rep Swing
76.) Warrenton- 5.1k--- 2016: (37-51 R); 2012: (47-49 R)          +12% Rep Swing
77.) Tillamook--- 4.9k-- 2016:  (38-47 R); 2012: (50-46 D)          +11% Rep Swing
78.) Philomath--- 4.6k- 2016: (48-36 D); 2012: (56-38 D)           +6% Rep Swing
79.) Veneta-----  4.6k-- 2016:  (35-53 R); 2012: (45-50 R)          +13% Rep Swing
80.) Phoenix--- 4.6k-- 2016: (48-43 D); 2012: (53-44 D)             +4% Rep Swing
81.) Reedsport-- 4.2k--- 2016:  (35-56 R); 2012: (45-52 R)         +14% Rep Swing
82.) Wood Village- 3.9k-- 2016: (50-37 D); 2012: (60-36 D)        +11% Rep Swing
83.) Coquille--- 3.9k-- 2016: (27-63 R); 2012: (39-56 R)             +19% Rep Swing   
84.) LaFayette--- Unknown. Split Precinct???
85.) Aumsville- 3.7k-- 2016: (24-64 R); 2012: (31-65)                +6% Rep Swing
86.) Harrisburg--- 3.6k-- 2016: (27-63 R); 2012: (35-62 R)         +9% Rep Swing
87.) Toledo--- 3.5k--- 2016: (38-49 R); 2012: (53-42 D)             +22% Rep Swing
88.) Myrtle Creek- 3.4k-- 2016: (23-69 R); 2012: (34-63 R)        +17% Rep Swing
89.) Mount Angel- 3.4k---2016: (38-50 R); 2012: (43-55 R)        +0% Swing
90.) Nyssa----TBD
91.) Boardman-- TBD
92.) Oakridge--- 3.2k--- 2016: (39-48 R); 2012: (50-42 D)      +17% Rep Swing
93.) Hubbard--  3.2k--   2016: (39-49 R); 2012:  (43-53 R)       +0% Swing
94.) Dundee--- 3.2k--- 2016: (42-45 R); 2012: (47-49 R)         +1% Rep Swing
95.) King City--  3.2k-- 2016: (57-36 D); 2012: (57-40 D)        +4% Dem Swing
96.) Jefferson--- 3.1k-- 2016: (28-60 R); 2012: (37-59 R)         +10 Rep Swing
97.) Bandon--- 3.1k... 2016: (46-45 D); 2012: (52-43 D)          +8% Rep Swing
98.) Shady Cove
99.) Burns-- TBD
100.) Jacksonville--- 2.8k--- 2016: (47-45 D); 2012: (45-53 R)   +10% Dem Swing
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #22 on: October 03, 2021, 05:52:15 PM »

So far it looks like of the capitals in counties Romney won;

Obama won Salem, Salt Lake City, Phoenix, Helena, Lincoln, Topeka, and Annapolis or at least I think it safe to assume he won these even if they were close.

Charleston, Boise, and Springfield still seem unclear to any clarification would be great.

It looks like Romney won Carson City, Cheyenne, Bismarck, Pierre, and Jefferson City, so he won anywhere between 5-8 state capitals.

I wonder if the 2012 results in these state capitols were ever determined or calculated. Of the cities I bolded, I would assume Obama won all three, thus leaving Romney with five state capitols. Biden actually won Marion County (Salem), Maricopa County (Phoenix), Shawnee County (Topeka), and Anne Arundel County (Annapolis) last year, all of which Obama lost twice, so he almost certainly outperformed Obama in these cities.

Cheyenne, Wyoming was clearly Romney in 2012.

There are still (61) precincts in the County just like there were in 2012 and I am assuming there were no major precinct boundary changes.

Using the same precinct coding I used in '16 and '20 for Cheyenne:

2012:   Romney- 14,359 (55.6%); Obama- 10,563  (40.9%)  TV-25,814  +14.7% R   
2016:   Trump- 14,687 (54.9%); Obama- 8,853  (33.1%)  TV-26,754   +21.8% R (+7.1R Swing)
2020:   Trump- 16,102 (55.8%); Biden-  11,423 (39.6%)   TV-28,835    +16.2%R (+5.6D Swing)
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #23 on: October 04, 2021, 09:32:34 PM »
« Edited: October 04, 2021, 11:15:57 PM by NOVA Green »

So far it looks like of the capitals in counties Romney won;

Obama won Salem, Salt Lake City, Phoenix, Helena, Lincoln, Topeka, and Annapolis or at least I think it safe to assume he won these even if they were close.

Charleston, Boise, and Springfield still seem unclear to any clarification would be great.

It looks like Romney won Carson City, Cheyenne, Bismarck, Pierre, and Jefferson City, so he won anywhere between 5-8 state capitals.

I wonder if the 2012 results in these state capitols were ever determined or calculated. Of the cities I bolded, I would assume Obama won all three, thus leaving Romney with five state capitols. Biden actually won Marion County (Salem), Maricopa County (Phoenix), Shawnee County (Topeka), and Anne Arundel County (Annapolis) last year, all of which Obama lost twice, so he almost certainly outperformed Obama in these cities.

So I thought it might be interesting to run the numbers for Boise, Idaho for the 2012 Presidential election since this thread caught my eye the other day and I realized that I hadn't run the data for most of the places on the list.

Obama clearly won Boise Idaho in 2012 by significant margins.

Methodology standard--- here I took the 2015 Mayoral precinct report from Boise and matched it against 2012 Precincts and municipal results from other places and tried to screen out the small number of obvious tiny Boise splits.... there were a few where Boise & Eagle City overlapped and by default coded those for the largest of the two vote totals.

For precinct coding I used the same coding by city between '12 and '16, so slightly different than my initial 2016 GE PRES calculations previously posted elsewhere. (Precinct 2107 was reassigned from Meridian to Boise in my math).

For 2020 precinct coding gets slightly trickier, so I used the 2019 Boise Mayoral precinct coding combined with looking at the Ada County Precinct Map.

New precincts added in Boise were pretty much A/B splits, and the rest of the new precincts were either in unincorporated areas SW of Boise OR in the fast growing suburb / exurb of Meridian.

NOTE: 2012 & 2016 GE PRES results do NOT include Write-In Ballots.

2020 GE PRES results DO include Write-In Ballots.

Tried to be consistent with my 2012-2020 format, which I used for Cheyenne:


2012:   Romney- 44,161 (44.5%); Obama- 51,391  (51.8%)  TV-99,295  +7.3% D  
2016:   Trump- 38,667 (37.4%); Clinton- 50,626  (49.0%)  TV-103,299   +11.6% D (+4.3D Swing)
2020:   Trump- 46,954 (37.2%); Biden-  74,036 (58.6%)   TV-126,257    +21.4%D (+9.8D Swing)
[/quote]

It is also patently clear that the overwhelming majority of "New Voters" in Boise benefited Biden between the '16 and '20 GEs, and not just 3rd Party Voters in '16 (LBT, GRN, & McMullin) disproportionately benefiting the DEMs.

Meanwhile my precinct coding in '16 and '18 might have slightly different results, but this is still illustrative of some of the shifts in Boise in a few down-ballot races over that time. (Haven't run the 2020 numbers and adjusted precinct coding data, but it gives an idea of how rapidly DEM the City of Boise has moved between even just '16>'20).

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NOVA Green
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« Reply #24 on: October 07, 2021, 09:02:26 PM »

Anybody interested in me spending potentially an hour or two out of my life to provide additional details pls post, since really 2012 GE isn't at the top of my radar right now, but hate to waste my time if there is little or no interest.
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