NYC'13: Congrats to Mayor de Blasio

[greenforest32]

WCBS-TV is reporting that there are 54,000 paper ballots from Manhattan, Brooklyn, the Bronx and Staten Island to be opened, an unknown number from Queens, and 14,000 absentees in so far.  I don't know why the absentee total is down from others' 19,000 estimate.

Yes, this is why it is all up in the air. Plus the paper ballot voters, and in particular, the absentee voters, may have a different voting pattern from the balance of the ballots. It is amazing how low the turnout is. That tends to be the way with New York state primaries. Few care about them much for some reason.

That's what happens with off-year elections and their primaries. They really should link things like this and NJ/VA-Gov to the presidential cycle. Having regular positions scheduled to an election time when 60% to 75% of the electorate won't show up is a back-handed way to keep things in 'order' or focus.

Or people can get informed and learn that there is no such thing as an "off year" election.

That kind of ties into what Paul Weyrich was hinting at when he said elections are not won by a majority of the people (51% on 25% turnout = 12.75%, 51% on 75% turnout = 38.25%) but the whole 'get informed' thing seems like a better argument for a bicameral legislature than for an election date that's most likely going to have voter turn-out of 20-35%.

I mean the idea of completely staggered elections for different levels of government (federal one cycle, state the next cycle, and local the next) seems interesting but I think higher turn-out is more important than that kind of separation. It's not like the important issues are going to disappear if the election is on a date when more people vote.

[cinyc]

An astounding 62% of emergency ballots are from Brooklyn, de Blasio's best borough.  Of course, de Blasio didn't uniformly win every precinct in the borough, but this is likely very good news for de Blasio's chances of remaining above 40%.

Under the so-called Weiner rule, Thompson has until midnight tonight to bow out and stop the runoff even if de Blasio ends up below the 40% threshhold when all votes are counted.

[DINGO Joe]

Out of curiosity I looked at the official results from the 2009 mayoral general election.  In that election there were just under 1.2 million votes cast (versus roughly 750,000 in the primary this year).  Of that vote cast there were:

5472 emergency ballots counted
22194 absentee ballots counted
12766 affidavit ballots counted

There was no breakout for BDM ballots
There's also no indication of how many affidavit or absentee ballots that were rejected.

It's important to remember that after Hurricane Sandy, Cuomo signed an executive order enabling NY voters to vote by affidavit at any precinct, and that swelled affidavit ballots to almost 250,000 in 2012 General, but that was for the 2012 election only.  That could have led to a number of people believing they could that again in this election, leading to a large number of invalid affidavits.  Conversely, Sandy probably led to large number of people changing their registration in the last year and it's possible that a higher number of affidavits will be valid.

[Eraserhead]

In all seriousness, what borough is Lhota going to be able to carry against de Blasio other than Staten Island (which he lost badly in his own primary btw)?

[PolitiJunkie]

In all seriousness, what borough is Lhota going to be able to carry against de Blasio other than Staten Island (which he lost badly in his own primary btw)?

That's it.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yeah, like it or not, regime change is coming to NYC.

[Keystone Phil]

Thompson has an 11 AM press conference scheduled. It is reported that he will concede.

[Lief 🗽]

Cuomo is apparently in town to endorse de Blasio at a joint appearance as well today.

[Lief 🗽]

wow, so party unity, very friendship

[MalaspinaGold]

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/09/16/bill-thompson-concession_n_3934464.html
Thompson concedes

Sorry, don't know what was going through my mind the first time. Typo.

[Keystone Phil]

De Blasio concedes

Shocking turn of events!

[DINGO Joe]

In a weird bit of trivia, if after all the ballots are counted and de Blasio falls below 40%, Thompson will still be listed on the runoff ballot, even though he's conceded.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Why the deBlasio inevitability?  Did everyone who voted for Giuliani and Bloomberg move to Hoboken?

[bedstuy]

Why the deBlasio inevitability?  Did everyone who voted for Giuliani and Bloomberg move to Hoboken?

Thompson's 09 Mayoral Campaign <<<<< De Blasio's 2013 Mayoral Campaign

Whatever Lhota's campaign will spend <<<< $100 million dollars that Bloomberg spent

Patience with Bloomberg era today <<<<<< Patience with Bloomberg era in 2009

And even with all that, 2009 was a fairly close race.

[traininthedistance]

Why the deBlasio inevitability?  Did everyone who voted for Giuliani and Bloomberg move to Hoboken?

Um, I don't think Hoboken is where they would have moved to.

But, here are some possible answers: they died out/retired to Florida, the issues that were important in 1993 (crime) are the exact opposite of issues important in 2013 (stop and frisk), there are still plenty of left-wing Bloomberg voters who liked him in the past but have gotten tired and want to see a change now/won't vote for Generic R Lhota just because Giuliani likes him, etc. etc.

Our household is actually a fan of Bloomberg's, and my SO voted for him in 2005 and 2009.  But we both hate Giuliani pretty strongly, and never had any intention of voting for anyone but the D this November (and also consider de Blasio easily the best of the "major" candidates, though we threw our votes away on Albanese this past Tuesday).

[badgate]

Charlie Rangel's in that party unity picture too.



Anybody seen any new polls for the general?

[Eraserhead]

I haven't seen any recent polls of the general election but I think there was one done back in June (before deBlasiomania hit) that had him ahead 52%-15%.

Let's also remember that Lhota is way more conservative than Bloomberg and possibly even the NYC Mayor version of Giuliani. The city meanwhile is continuing to become less white and more liberal with each passing year.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It also shouldn't be at all surprising that people have become tired of conservative rule after twenty years.

[hopper]

It also shouldn't be at all surprising that people have become tired of conservative rule after twenty years.

Bloomberg is as a left wing as you can get on guns and not letting people enjoy their big gulp! He is basically a Rockefeller Republican. He is toward the political center on economic issues so he is not left-wing there.

[cinyc]

NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll
De Blasio (D) 65%
Lhota (R) 22%
Carrion (I) 3%
Undecided 9%

Likely voters; MoE +/- 3.9%

[Bacon King]

It also shouldn't be at all surprising that people have become tired of conservative rule after twenty years.

Bloomberg is as a left wing as you can get on guns and not letting people enjoy their big gulp! He is basically a Rockefeller Republican. He is toward the political center on economic issues so he is not left-wing there.

Guns and big gulps: the defining issues of our generation

[Maxwell]

NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll
De Blasio (D) 65%
Lhota (R) 22%
Carrion (I) 3%
Undecided 9%

Likely voters; MoE +/- 3.9%

Jesus this is bad.

[Lief 🗽]

NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll
De Blasio (D) 65%
Lhota (R) 22%
Carrion (I) 3%
Undecided 9%

Likely voters; MoE +/- 3.9%

lol awesome

[Lief 🗽]

Lhota's favorables (29-41) are bad; de Blasio's are great (65-19). Not sure there's much else left to do here but wait until election day.

[Maxwell]

Hope the Lhota camp can somehow turn this around, and some momentous event where Lhota or some other Republican saves the day occurs.