Clinton leads Giuliani, Demolishes Pataki in 2006 Senate poll

[Smash255]

In the latest Sienna college poll.  Clinton leads Rudy 52-43 in a hypothetical Senate match up, and is crushing Pataki in a Senate matchup 58-32. 

http://www.newsday.com/news/local/longisland/ny-bc-ny--pataki-poll0207feb07,0,5092466.story?coll=ny-topstories-headlines

[Notre Dame rules!]

I guess to boost his numbers, Rudy needs to collapse on stage.  You  can never discount the sympathy vote.

[AuH2O]

"Uh uh, can Hillary beat uh Rudy!??"

"Can a puma, challenge a lion, for King?"

"uhh uh-"

"No."

Gong.

[Smash255]

I guess to boost his numbers, Rudy needs to collapse on stage.  You  can never discount the sympathy vote.

Considering her approval has been well into the 60's (long before the fainting spell) i don't think that really had an impact. 

[Silent Hunter]

It's a Uni poll. You should know how we treated them during 2004.

[Umengus]

-Quinnipiac poll ("the big Q") is " interesting, not worthless, but don't be the farm...", said the Vorlon (before US presidential election).

-Their presentation: "Frequently cited by journalists, public officials and researchers, the independent Quinnipiac University Poll regularly surveys residents in Connecticut, Florida, New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania and nationwide about political races, state and national elections, and issues of public concern, such as schools, taxes, transportation, municipal services, and the environment. Known for its exactness and thoroughness, the poll was selected a "winner" by the New York Post for the most accurate prediction on the Schumer-D'Amato Senate race in 1998, and results are featured regularly in The New York Times, The Washington Post, USA Today, The Wall Street Journal, and on national network news broadcasts. Student interviewers use a computer-assisted telephone interviewing system to collect data from statewide and national residents. For a typical public opinion survey, a randomly selected sample of about 1,000 registered voters age 18 and over are interviewed over five or six days. The polls are conducted at the Polling Institute on New Road, adjacent to the main campus. "

- Their last polls (before the election day) were very good:

NJ: Kerry 48 Bush 43 (election day: 52/46) During the whole campaign, Q showed that the NJ would be tighter than in 2000.

FL: Kerry 43 Bush 51 (election day: 47/52) FL result was a surprise for lots of people. Not for Q...

PA: Kerry 47 Bush 47 (election day: 51/48). During the campaign, a day it was Bush ahead in Q poll, another day it was Kerry in Q poll.

-conclusion: I think that you can trust in a Q poll in the NY, NJ and PA states.  But it's a significiant thing to note that it's the first time that I see Hillary before Rudy.

[ATFFL]

Quinnipiac is a decent firm and pretty good in the NY/NJ/PA/CT area.  Not perfect by any means and still a Uni poll (which always implies students running the call center) and should be taken with a grain of salt. 

The universal problem with University polls is the high turnover in staff.  It is entirely possible that the vast majority of the call center is now staffed by different people than those who did the Presidential campaign.  By the time the next Presidential campaign is winding down we can guarantee that the center is almost entirely remanned.

This is why it is so hard to look at a Univeristy poll's track record.  One batch of lazy students with poor quality control means an off year.

[Umengus]

Quinnipiac is a decent firm and pretty good in the NY/NJ/PA/CT area.  Not perfect by any means and still a Uni poll (which always implies students running the call center) and should be taken with a grain of salt. 

The universal problem with University polls is the high turnover in staff.  It is entirely possible that the vast majority of the call center is now staffed by different people than those who did the Presidential campaign.  By the time the next Presidential campaign is winding down we can guarantee that the center is almost entirely remanned.

This is why it is so hard to look at a Univeristy poll's track record.  One batch of lazy students with poor quality control means an off year.

if there are students, there are teachers too. I suppose that there is a strong control by them. And if students change, I think that it's not the case of teachers.

[ATFFL]

if there are students, there are teachers too. I suppose that there is a strong control by them. And if students change, I think that it's not the case of teachers.

Very true.  The fact that Quinnipiac is generally good speaks well of the teachers.  It means the students have a clue what they are doing in the call center, which is not always the case with a University poll.

[phk]

Gulaini's appearance at the RNC probably cost him a Senate seat.

[Smash255]

Same result new poll

Quinnipiac's poll also shows Clinton ahead of Giuliani.  She has an approval rating of 65%, and is leadiing rudy 50-44%.  Her lead expands when Pataki is her opponent.  She has a whopping  61%-30% lead over Pataki (who is also getting crushed by spitzer' and whose approval is down to a record low 34%

http://www.newsday.com/news/local/state/nyc-hill0210,0,4979509.story?coll=ny-statenews-headlines

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Gulaini's appearance at the RNC probably cost him a Senate seat.

you summed it up.