The "Who is running?" tea leaves thread

[Mr. Morden]

Perry once again floats the idea of running again in 2016:

http://www.nbcdfw.com/news/politics/Perry-I-May-Run-for-President-Again-183882051.html

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[Mr. Morden]

Jon Huntsman

Following Huntsman's departure from the 2012 race, he didn't exactly appear to be endearing himself to the GOP primary electorate for a 2016 run.  First, he admitted that he thought about running as an Independent:

link

then he joined the Brookings Institute:

link

He also leveled various criticisms of Romney during the election campaign even after endorsing him:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-politics/post/jon-huntsman-criticizes-mitt-romneys-china-policy/2012/02/16/gIQANxjEIR_blog.html

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0912/81210.html

As recently as a few weeks ago, Huntsman joined up with No Labels:

http://www.deseretnews.com/article/865567712/Huntsman-association-with-No-Labels-group-could-hurt-his-future-with-GOP.html?pg=all

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So, on the surface, Huntsman is doing everything possible to suggest that he's done running for president, at least within the GOP.  Yet, a week ago, Huntsman said that he's not ruling anything out:

link

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[Abhakhazia]

That's good about Huntsman. I'd definately support him in 2016 if he chose to run.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Susana Martinez's dad seems to be dying.

http://www.kfoxtv.com/news/news/official-susana-martinezs-father-gravely-ill-el-pa/nThmj/

For practical purposes, this does mean she'll have fewer forces tying her down when it comes time to think of a national run in 2015...

[hawkeye59]

Susana Martinez's dad seems to be dying.

http://www.kfoxtv.com/news/news/official-susana-martinezs-father-gravely-ill-el-pa/nThmj/

For practical purposes, this does mean she'll have fewer forces tying her down when it comes time to think of a national run in 2015...

Classy.

[Mr. Morden]

Rubio voted against the fiscal cliff deal, which of course could be read as a sign of 2016 ambitions.  Rand Paul voted against it as well, though he'd probably be voting against it regardless of his national ambitions.

All of the possible 2016ers on the Democratic side (Gillibrand, Klobuchar, Warner) voted for it.

Elizabeth Warren and Ted Cruz are of course not sworn in yet, so didn't vote.

It'll be interesting to see what happens on the House side, particularly with Ryan.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Susana Martinez's dad seems to be dying.

http://www.kfoxtv.com/news/news/official-susana-martinezs-father-gravely-ill-el-pa/nThmj/

For practical purposes, this does mean she'll have fewer forces tying her down when it comes time to think of a national run in 2015...

Classy.

It's true though. This was cited as the number one reason why she wouldn't run alongside Romney if asked.

[RogueBeaver]

Ryan has voted yes.

[Mr. Morden]

Bob McDonnell

If I'm still posting here in 2015, I really should start a "who is running? tea leaves" thread that year for 2020.  That's because a few of the candidates actually start visiting the early primary states nearly five years before the primaries start.  I previously mentioned that Brian Schweitzer is one such candidate.  He did early primary state visits for 2016 back tin 2011.

Bob McDonnell is another such candidate.  He visited New Hampshire way back in 2011, after he'd already ruled out running in 2012:

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0811/61252.html

McDonnell was an early name on the Romney veepstakes list.  He was so eager to be picked as Romney's running mate, that he actually resorted to running ads promoting himself in his state, in an apparent attempt to boost his favorability for the veepstakes:

http://www.businessinsider.com/bob-mcdonnell-lobbies-to-be-mitt-romneys-vice-president-with-virginia-ad-buy-2012-4

During the veepstakes tryout period, McDonnell made a visit to Iowa:

http://www.politico.com/blogs/burns-haberman/2012/07/mcdonnell-hitting-iowa-for-romney-130008.html

Since Iowa's a swing state in the general election, and he was auditioning for veep, that particular visit doesn't necessarily suggest presidential ambitions of his own, but he made another Iowa visit later in the year, after Ryan had already been picked:

http://www.politico.com/blogs/burns-haberman/2012/09/mcdonnell-to-iowa-136741.html

That was before November's election.  What's McDonnell been doing since the election?  Well, he gave a non-denial of interest in 2016, when directly asked about it:

http://politics.blogs.timesdispatch.com/2012/11/08/mcdonnell-not-thinking-2016/

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In hist post-election rhetoric, he also seems to be jockeying for position on the national stage:

http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Latest-News-Wires/2012/1116/GOP-leaders-Jindal-Christie-McDonnell-Walker-begin-jockeying-for-2016

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He also met with Super PAC-funder Sheldon Adelson on the sidelines of the RGA last month:

http://www.politico.com/story/2012/12/2016-contenders-courting-mega-donors-84497.html

Because 2016 will potentially have a number of big names running on the Republican side (Christie, Rubio, Ryan….), a McDonnell candidacy might be considered a longshot.  There had been speculation that if Mark Warner ran for governor again in 2013, then McDonnell might run for the senate seat that Warner would have to vacate if he won.  However, Warner confirmed that he would *not* be running for governor again in November, thus restricting McDonnell's options.  Since Warner decided to bow out, McDonnell has commented that he thinks he's more suited for an executive, rather than legislative job, his clearest indication yet that he's eyeing 2016:

http://hamptonroads.com/2012/12/mcdonnell-mum-future-favors-executive-authority

Mark Warner

Warner seemed to be gearing up for a run at the 2008 Democratic nomination back in 2006.  He made several early primary state visits and the like, but then, in October 2006, announced that he wouldn't be running.  The speculation was that he was scared off by the Hillary Clinton juggernaut, but there were also tabloid rumors of some kind of sexual harassment incident from Warner's past, that he didn't want becoming public.  AFAIK, those rumors have not resurfaced in the intervening years.

But that was the 2008 race.  What has Warner done in the past year to suggest an interest in running in 2016?

Well, he met with the Iowa delegation at the DNC:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=158046.0

He also met with big donors with the potential to fund a national race, as described by Politico:

http://www.politico.com/story/2012/12/2016-contenders-courting-mega-donors-84497.html

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Most tellingly though, despite the fact that Warner has, in the past, described his job as a Senator as frustrating:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/virginia-politics/post/warner-on-supercommittee-failure-cutting-debt-and-deficit-shouldnt-be-that-hard/2011/11/21/gIQALMk5iN_blog.html

he decided to take a pass on the 2013 gubernatorial race in Virginia.  If he ran for, and was elected, governor again in 2013, then he'd have to transition almost immediately into a presidential race.  So the simplest option, if he wants to run for prez, is to stay in the Senate.  After all, it's tough to take a year off from being governor to run for president, but easy enough to be an absentee senator for an arbitrarily long period of time. 

[RogueBeaver]

Ryan will keynote SBA in April.

http://www.politico.com/story/2013/01/paul-ryan-to-raise-profile-at-anti-abortion-event-85773.html?hp=l20

[Mr. Morden]

Rand Paul visits Israel, a perennial stop for presidential aspirants:

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2013/01/08/while-visiting-israel-sen-paul-calls-for-less-u-s-foreign-aid/

In Paul's case, however, he's not necessarily sticking to the familiar talking points for American politicians who visit Israel, as he's using the trip to talk about reducing foreign aid.

[RogueBeaver]

Ryan: "I've decided not to decide."

http://host.madison.com/wsj/news/local/govt-and-politics/paul-ryan-i-ve-decided-not-to-decide-on-presidential/article_84c5a2e8-5ab9-11e2-8a59-0019bb2963f4.html

[Mr. Morden]

Cuccinelli did an interview with Iowa-based conservative radio host Steve Deace:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/on-iowa-radio-cuccinelli-says-jail-may-be-a-fitting-protest-to-feds-contraception-mandate/2013/01/10/61543c3e-5b8b-11e2-b8b2-0d18a64c8dfa_story.html

Deace is based in Iowa, but nationally syndicated. Make of that what you will.

[Mr. Morden]

Howard Dean

Dean belongs squarely in the category of Democrats who get along with neither the Clinton nor Obama political teams.  The Clintons didn't like his handling of the 2008 primary process controversies, and then Dean seemed to have something of a falling out with the Obama team in the following year, perhaps related to Obama passing him over for Sebelius at HHS.

Dean criticized Obamacare when it moving through Congress, saying that the country needed single payer instead:

http://www.gohealthinsurance.com/blog/coverage/entry/20091216

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In 2012, he even went so far as to say that he hoped the Supreme Court struck down the individual mandate:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/06/19/howard-dean-individual-mandate_n_1609171.html

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In 2011, he said that many Obama administration aides had treated progressives "with contempt":

http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Politics/monitor_breakfast/2011/0105/Howard-Dean-blasts-White-House-for-treating-liberals-with-contempt

There was even some trumped up media speculation in 2010/2011 about Dean primarying Obama in 2012, but Dean declined.

If Dean were actually interested in a presidential run in 2016, he seems like the rare Democratic candidate who might not be deterred from entering the race if Hillary Clinton runs.  (Indeed, he might relish acting as the Bill Bradley to Clinton's Al Gore.)  But is he interested?  He certainly has some fans hoping so, as there are at least three websites/blogs devoted to Dean 2016:

http://www.dailykos.com/blog/dean2016/#

http://www.dean2016.com

http://www.deanin16.com

Dean himself, though hasn't been making the rounds in Iowa or New Hampshire that folks like O'Malley and Schweitzer have been making.  Has he left any hints of interest in running again?

Well, he's left the door open a crack.  From an NPR interview at the DNC last year:

http://www.npr.org/2012/09/05/160615423/the-political-junkie-recaps-the-dnc-so-far

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And then again just yesterday:

http://www.vpr.net/news_detail/97114/dean-on-2016-run-probably-but-well-see/

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[Mr. Morden]

Andrew Cuomo

On the surface, one might think that Cuomo isn't actually doing anything to indicate an interest in running for president.  He certainly isn't doing the conventional things that Martin O'Malley is doing, like visiting the early primary states and meeting with the right people at last year's DNC.  In fact, he barely attended the DNC, only visiting the event for all of a few hours, to give a speech to the New York delegation.  He also never does national interviews like O'Malley does, and is in general trying to keep a low national profile.

Sort of.

The conventional wisdom is that Cuomo's trying to keep a low national profile, because he doesn't want constant presidential speculation to impact his job as governor in the way that some thought happened with his father.  His desire to avoid presidential speculation made all the more extraordinary last summer's comments by the elder Cuomo on his son's future:

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/09/nyregion/cuomos-father-speaks-of-presidential-future-for-son.html

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But beyond that, while "officially" Cuomo frowns on presidential speculation, he seems to be letting his aides and fundraising people talk pretty openly to the media about his presidential ambitions, just not on the record with their real names:

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/22/nyregion/cuomos-presidential-dreams-and-a-clinton-in-the-way.html?_r=0

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The most interesting line from that article is this one:

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OK, assuming that that advisor is telling the truth, that suggests that Cuomo is remarkably open, at least with his own aides, about wanting to run in '16.

What are the other clues?  Well, his desire to play nice with the Republicans in the state legislature is widely seen as a desire to not take political risks, and be seen as bipartisan so that he can run up the score in his 2014 reelection campaign, and be seen as a candidate with crossover appeal when he vies for the presidential nomination.  (The same strategy that Hillary Clinton followed in her 2006 reelection campaign.)  And about that 2014 reelection campaign……as of a few months ago, Cuomo had already raised $19 million for that race…..a race which is still two years away:

http://www.newyorktrue.com/andrew-cuomo-campaign-finance-reform/

That puts his fundraising haul for 2014 about on par with all of the rest of the nation's governors seeking 2014 reelection combined.  Any leftover money from that race could then be rolled over into a presidential campaign.

Cuomo is also among the (relatively small) group of prospective 2016ers who has not already committed to endorsing Hillary Clinton if she runs:

http://www.politico.com/story/2012/12/cuomo-ducks-on-hillary-in-2016-84850.html

Finally, there's been a flurry of presidential speculation surrounding Cuomo in recent days, following clues that numerous media folks claim to have gotten from his state of the state address:

http://www.nydailynews.com/new-york/years-office-gov-andrew-cuomo-channeled-mario-article-1.1237087

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[BluegrassBlueVote]

What are the other clues?  Well, his desire to play nice with the Republicans in the state legislature is widely seen as a desire to not take political risks, and be seen as bipartisan so that he can run up the score in his 2014 reelection campaign, and be seen as a candidate with crossover appeal when he vies for the presidential nomination.  (The same strategy that Hillary Clinton followed in her 2006 reelection campaign.)  And about that 2014 reelection campaign……as of a few months ago, Cuomo had already raised $19 million for that race…..a race which is still two years away:

http://www.newyorktrue.com/andrew-cuomo-campaign-finance-reform/

That puts his fundraising haul for 2014 about on par with all of the rest of the nation's governors seeking 2014 reelection combined.  Any leftover money from that race could then be rolled over into a presidential campaign.

"Running up the score" would be kind; it sounds like he's going for a first-quarter blowout. Reeks of Bush/Mauro '98 (although Cuomo isn't as strong of a candidate as Dubya).

[RogueBeaver]

Santorum basically confirms he's running. Congrats Phil. As a side note, prez16 is the new GOP12, for those of us who follow Heinze.

http://www.prez16.com/2013/01/santorum-i-shouldnt-be-where-i-am.html

[BluegrassBlueVote]

For a guy who some people here swear up and down is not interested in national politics this next cycle, Scott Walker sure is acting like he's interested.

http://host.madison.com/ct/news/opinion/column/scot-ross-walker-s-on-campaign-trail/article_38e8ce0c-5e71-11e2-a53d-001a4bcf887a.html

[RogueBeaver]

That sounds like a legislative agenda to me.

More on Cuomo, also from Heinze.

http://www.prez16.com/2013/01/meet-andrew-cuomo.html

[BluegrassBlueVote]

I just think the visit to the Reagan Library and the close association with the mega-donors make it obvious. Not saying '16 will be his cycle, but interest is there.

[BluegrassBlueVote]

^Bookmarked Prez16; thanks for the link. Although I'd say the biggest elephant in the room for Cuomo will definitely be the dreaded Kwanzaa Cake.

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/16/nyregion/cuomo-raises-nearly-22-5-million-for-re-election-campaign.html?_r=0

War chest continues to bloat for Mario's boy. Like I said, it could be Bush/Mauro v2.0.

[Mr. Morden]

I just think the visit to the Reagan Library and the close association with the mega-donors make it obvious. Not saying '16 will be his cycle, but interest is there.

He visited New Hampshire last year, and he refused to rule out a presidential run when asked about it.  I'd say Walker is interested.  Though as you say, 2016 might not be his year.  In particular, he'll probably defer to Ryan if Ryan is interested in running in '16, since he's the Cheesehead of the moment.  But if Ryan decides to take a pass on a presidential run for whatever reason, then Walker is certainly a possibility.

[RogueBeaver]

P16 profiles Jindal.

http://www.prez16.com/2013/01/meet-bobby-jindal.html

[Mr. Morden]

Those candidate bios on prez16 are remarkably good.

[RogueBeaver]

Gillibrand P16 profile.

http://www.prez16.com/2013/01/meet-kirsten-gillibrand.html