The "Who is running?" tea leaves thread

[RogueBeaver]

Rubio and Ryan are delivering speeches at the Kemp Foundation this week. Rubio wants to expand his bailiwick into FP, Ryan into immigration and poverty.

http://www.politico.com/story/2012/12/paul-ryan-and-marco-rubios-makeovers-84544.html?hp=f1

[Meeker]

Hillary is sending out some eyebrow-raising letters: http://politicker.com/2012/12/hillary-clintons-under-the-radar-letter-writing-campaign/

[Lief 🗽]

Hillary is sending out some eyebrow-raising letters: http://politicker.com/2012/12/hillary-clintons-under-the-radar-letter-writing-campaign/

yesssssss

[Mr. Morden]

Walker is asked again about 2016, and dodges the question:

http://cnsnews.com/news/article/white-house-gov-walker-dodges-2016-intentions-calls-bipartisanship

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[Mr. Morden]

Politico has a story on Rubio's and Ryan's presidential ambitions, talking specifically about their duelling speeches coming up on Tuesday night at the Jack Kemp Foundation’s awards dinner:

http://www.politico.com/story/2012/12/paul-ryan-and-marco-rubios-makeovers-84544.html?hp=t1

So now they've spoken at this dinner, and you can read a recap here:

http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/12/04/ryan-and-rubio-say-republicans-must-work-on-aiding-middle-class/

They both joked about 2016:

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[Ogre Mage]

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http://www.irishcentral.com/news/Hillary-Clinton-sends-early-signal-about-2016-bid-on-Irish-visit-181736491.html

[Lief 🗽]

Fantastic news!

[Mr. Morden]

Politico notes that Santorum has already registered the domain names "RickSantorum2016.com, RickSantorum2016.net and Santorum2016.net.":

http://www.politico.com/story/2012/12/2016-candidate-websites-masters-of-the-2016-candidate-domains-84638.html?hp=r1

They note that it's also possible to pay a bit extra to buy your domain name anonymously, and so it's unclear who's bought Christie2016.com, ElizabethWarren2016.com or JoeBiden2016.com.

[Mr. Morden]

So I've done the capsule reviews of all evidence to date for quite a few candidates, but still haven't gotten around to writing the blurbs for prospective candidates Biden, Clinton, Cuomo, Warner, Warren, Christie, Martinez, Palin, Rubio, and a few others.  I will get to all of them eventually, but the next few weeks will probably be a bit slow on that front.  Some of them will take a while.

One thing that's become more apparent as I've written these, though, is the gap in early activity between the Dem. and GOP sides.  For example, AFAIK, the only Dems who've made trips to early primary states that could plausibly be construed as precursors to 2016 campaigns are:

Biden (was running for VP, so trips to IA and NH don't necessarily imply future presidential ambition)
Hickenlooper
Klobuchar
O'Malley
Patrick
Schweitzer
Vilaraigosa

Others have dropped hints in other ways, but that list is nearly twice as long on the GOP side.  Are Dems just reluctant to commit to a run unless they're sure that HRC isn't running or something?  Or is there something else going on here?

[m4567]

If Jeb Bush doesn't run, I think Rubio will be the republican nominee. I think Biden or Clinton will be the democratic nominee.

[Eraserhead]

Hillary is sending out some eyebrow-raising letters: http://politicker.com/2012/12/hillary-clintons-under-the-radar-letter-writing-campaign/

yesssssss

noooo

[Mr. Morden]

Elizabeth Warren

Warren has gotten some presidential buzz from the moment she declared her Senate candidacy, if not before.  She won the first 2016 Democratic straw poll back in June:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=155319.0

and is frequently included on lists of potential candidates.  Warren herself has done little to stoke the speculation.  In October, we saw this exchange in an interview with ABC News:

http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2012/10/elizabeth-warren-2016/

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Of course, at the time, Warren was in the middle of a competitive Senate race.  Now that she doesn't have to worry about that anymore, will she change her tune?

Two final points: 1) Warren will be 67 years old on election day 2016, so this is probably her one chance to run, if she wants to, and 2) as with many of the other candidates, there is the complicating factor of another potential candidate from the same state: Warren might be less inclined to run if Deval Patrick is also in the race.

Susana Martinez

Martinez got some buzz as a possible Romney running mate this year, but she refused to be vetted.  The primary reason she gave had to do with her family obligations:

http://www.abqjournal.com/main/2012/04/08/news/gov-on-vp-no-means-no.html

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Obviously, this could continue to be a problem in 2015/16, and could conceivably deter her from running from president.
Has she actually given any affirmative reasons to suggest that she might be thinking about running?  Until just the last week, the answer was no.  The Martinez buzz seemed to be entirely manufactured by others, and not Martinez herself.  But a few days ago, Politico noted this:

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I suppose this might just be for her reelection bid as governor, but it's not as if New Mexico is a particularly expensive state to run in.  More importantly, we have this exchange from an interview on Fox News:

http://gop12.thehill.com/2012/12/susana-martinez-deflects-2016-chatter.html

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"No thoughts on that" is a far cry from Elizabeth Warren's "No, no, no, no, no".  Martinez previously said that she was going to serve the entirety of her first term as governor.  She doesn't seem to be quite ready (yet) to make the same promise for a potential second term, which means that she presumably holds open the possibility of running for president or VP in 2016.

[Mr. Morden]

Bush gets kind of zen:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/12/06/jeb-bush-national-constitution-center_n_2251174.html

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[Eraserhead]

Cuomo essentially confirms his interest in running (by refusing to say whether he'd back Hillary if she runs).

http://politicker.com/2012/12/governor-cuomo-wont-say-whether-hed-back-hillary-for-president/

[Lief 🗽]

Oh man, watching Clinton crush Cuomo would be amazing.

[RogueBeaver]

McDonnell: I prefer an executive position.

http://hamptonroads.com/2012/12/mcdonnell-mum-future-favors-executive-authority

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Oh man, watching Clinton crush Cuomo would be amazing.

Indeed.

[Cobbler]

Huntsman discussing US-China relations, but also his presidential run and the need for a uniting vision.
http://uwartsci.wordpress.com/2012/12/11/jon-huntsman-charms-uw-stresses-cooperation-domestically-and-abroad/

[Niemeyerite]

I think Hagel could clinch the D nomination if 1) he becomes Secretary of State Defense, 2) a popular one and 3) Clinton doesn't run.

[Paul Kemp]

I think Hagel could clinch the D nomination if 1) he becomes Secretary of State Defense, 2) a popular one and 3) Clinton doesn't run.

4) switches his party

[Mr. Morden]

Santorum keeps teasing:

http://blogs.cbn.com/thebrodyfile/archive/2012/12/14/only-on-the-brody-file-rick-santorum-on-2016-presidential.aspx

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Hickenlooper downplays his chances of running, and says he's probably too moderate to win the nomination:

http://www.nationaljournal.com/blogs/hotlineoncall/2012/12/hickenlooper-downplays-2016-speculation-14

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Of course, Hickenlooper faces reelection as CO governor in 2014, so portraying himself as a moderate is in his immediate political interest.

[Mr. Morden]

Paul says he's running for reelection for his Senate seat in 2016.  If he follows through on that, then he can't run for president in the same year:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=166421.0

[Mr. Morden]

Sarah Palin

Palin teased a 2012 presidential run back in 2011, including making a last minute trip to Iowa that coincided with the straw poll:

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0811/61067.html

She of course ultimately decided against a run.  Palin visited Iowa again in August 2012, in the thick of the Obama-Romney race, and weeks before the RNC:

http://www.politico.com/blogs/burns-haberman/2012/08/palin-visits-iowa-for-rastetter-dinner-131123.html

Palin's been relatively quiet in recent months.  Though there's never a shortage of drama in her family, as her 23 year old son has just filed for divorce after about a year and a half of marriage:

http://www.latimes.com/entertainment/gossip/la-et-mg-track-palin-divorce-sarah-palin-20121213,0,4100874.story

Mike Huckabee

Huckabee equivocated for several months on whether he'd run for the 2012 GOP nomination, but ultimately decided against it.  During his equivocation period, however, he sounded very much like a man who was done with politics, taking frequent shots at the game show-like presidential campaign process:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/02/20/AR2011022003760.html

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The Huckabee train has taken on quite a bit of new baggage since his 2008 run.  I detail here:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=159316.0

why I think Huckabee is finished politically, and why, since he's not a fool, he presumably realizes that he's finished, and won't run for president ever again.  In brief, in addition to having granted clemency to Maurice Clemmons, who later murdered four police officers, Huck also has an Akin-like episode in his past.  1998 US Senate candidate Fey Boozman made the exact same rape gaffe made years later by Akin.  Huck not only defended him, but put him in charge of the state's Health Department(!).

Then in 2012, Huck became Akin's biggest defender, following the rape gaffe, rallying support for him among Baptist ministers, and raising money for him:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/08/27/mike-huckabee-defends-todd-akin-missouri-baptist_n_1833485.html

Just before the RNC, Huck unleashed on the party establishment, many of whom were worried that he'd go rogue in his convention speech:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=158055.0

This isn't the normal way that someone builds support for a future presidential run.  By all of these circumstances, I don't think there's any realistic chance that Huckabee runs again.

But this thread isn't supposed to just be about my own opinion.  It's an effort to catalog all of the various clues.  So I feel compelled to note that Huckabee also appeared at Iowa's Family Leadership Summit in August of this year:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=154804.0

He also said just two weeks ago that he's undecided on a 2016 run:

http://gop12.thehill.com/2012/12/huckabee-undecided-on-2016-run.html

Of course, Huckabee is also hawking his latest book, so any 2016 speculation doesn't hurt.

John Kasich

Kasich briefly ran for president back in 2000.  He's been a longshot name in the veepstakes going all the way back to 1996.  (Though he wasn't considered in 2012, because his job approval numbers in Ohio have been poor.)  If Kasich does manage to win reelection, will he quickly turn around and announce his own campaign for president in 2016?  He's not ruling it out:

http://www.dispatch.com/content/stories/local/2012/11/08/kasich-focused-on-own-re-election-bid.html

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Politico also notes that Kasich, along with 2016ers Jindal and McDonnell, met with Super PAC mega-donor Sheldon Adelson a few weeks ago in Las Vegas, while in town for the RGA:

http://www.politico.com/story/2012/12/2016-contenders-courting-mega-donors-84497.html

Will he actually run for prez?  My guess is probably not.  But he's had the presidential bug before, so you never know.  I do think though, that with his numbers rebounding a bit in Ohio, if he does manage to get reelected in 2014, he'll be mentioned in the 2016 veepstakes, particularly if the other Ohioan, Rob Portman, ends up recusing himself from the veepstakes to focus on his own 2016 Senate reelection campaign.

[Mr. Morden]

Joe Biden

Just like Biden announced his candidacy several times over when he ran in 2008, he's already been trying to announce his 2016 candidacy, starting as far back as 2009.  Here's a timeline of Joe or Jill Biden statements on the matter (along with some leaked stuff from Biden aides) going back to 2009:

August 2009:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=101116.0

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May 2011:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=115766.50

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October 2011:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=142617.0

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May 2012:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=151097.0

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Also in May 2012:

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June 2012:

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/06/05/jill-biden-weighs-in-on-2016/

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August 2012:

http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/biden-looks-ahead-2016-election_650281.html

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October 2012, just a week before the 2012 election:

http://www.politico.com/politico44/2012/10/biden-floats-himself-in-147849.html

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Then on election day itself:

http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2012/11/06/biden-hints-at-2016-presidential-bid/

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[HagridOfTheDeep]

I like Joe Biden. I think he'd be a decent president, too.