Wisconsin Megathread

[MT Treasurer]

I don’t see a way for conservatives to hold this seat, honestly.

[Dr. Arch]

I don’t see a way for conservatives to hold this seat, honestly.

Maybe there's even a surprise and both left-leaning judges advance to the general. I'm throwing my support for Tim.

[Tintrlvr]

I'm having a tough time picturing what sort of Milwaukee suburban voter voted for Bush twice, voted for McCain and Romney, and voted for Walker three times amongst all that, but then considered Trump a bridge too far and is now voting against all Republicans because of that.

Is it really hard to see how McCain, Romney, etc. differ drastically from Trump?

I doubt they'll "vote against all Republicans" though. My guess is they still come in heavy for Walker.

I mean, don't the results in places like NOVA suggest there are indeed a bunch of such voters?

Certainly - although demographic change is way underrated as a cause of shifts in NOVA and to a lesser extent in other suburban areas around the country. A lot of McCain 2008 voters were dead by 2016, and most voters who moved in (or turned 18) after 2008 voted for Clinton. In much of the country, this trend was offset (or completely overshadowed) by a lot of Kerry 2004/Obama 2008 voters switching to Romney, or sticking with Obama in 2012 and then switching to Trump, but those types of voters are thin on the ground in wealthier suburban areas, while demographic change is happening faster in urban and suburban areas than in rural areas (and faster in some urban and suburban areas than in others).

[KingSweden]

Tim Burns follows me on Twitter so I'm, whether I like it or not, obligated to give him my full moral support. Is he favored to receive a higher % vs. Dallet?

There’s an outside chance (unlikely IMO) both liberals advance. My read is that Dallet is favored, though.

[Koharu]

I haven't heard much about who is favored, but the statewide and Dane county Dems are pushing hard for Burns. Mark Pocan also endorsed him. My vote will be for Dallet, based on their interviews with various newspapers and such.

Heading to the polling place here in the next few hours, so I'll report on how things look there, as well as behavior of the poll volunteers. At the 2016 general, my husband got turned away for his ID address not matching his polling address, which is not how the law works. Luckily he knew that, as I also have an ID with our old address on it, and voted before him, so he pressed the worker and was allowed to vote. But I am afraid that other people may have been turned away.

[Koharu]

Oh, is there any sort of polling that's been done on the Democratic primary candidates for governor? The field is flooded, and I'd kind of like to see which way the winds are blowing...

[Tekken_Guy]

Screnock was endorsed by the NRA one day before the Parkland shooting. This election will certainly be a referendum on gun politics.

[MasterJedi]

Moved last fall, think I figured out where I'm supposed to vote, we'll find out if I'm right after work. Just the State SC and local school board election to vote in. The school board has it split between those who are infuriated the school board passed an energy saves/repair motion last year without letting the voters try and vote it down. Will be voting for those in favor of the correct use of power/not the morons who want to pay nothing for schools.

[Koharu]

Moved last fall, think I figured out where I'm supposed to vote, we'll find out if I'm right after work. Just the State SC and local school board election to vote in. The school board has it split between those who are infuriated the school board passed an energy saves/repair motion last year without letting the voters try and vote it down. Will be voting for those in favor of the correct use of power/not the morons who want to pay nothing for schools.

Super easy to look up in WI: https://myvote.wi.gov/en-us/

[MasterJedi]

Moved last fall, think I figured out where I'm supposed to vote, we'll find out if I'm right after work. Just the State SC and local school board election to vote in. The school board has it split between those who are infuriated the school board passed an energy saves/repair motion last year without letting the voters try and vote it down. Will be voting for those in favor of the correct use of power/not the morons who want to pay nothing for schools.

Super easy to look up in WI: https://myvote.wi.gov/en-us/

Thanks, it is showing the correct area. They just moved the polling places out of schools in my new city so I wasn't sure if it would have been correct, but thankfully it is.

[Koharu]

IIRC it's run by what used to be the GAB. The folks there try to stay on top of things.

[redjohn]

Voted for Tim Burns. Hoping Dallet and Burns make it through the primary, but questioning whether even low turnout could leave the field with just two left-wingers. Guess we'll find out later.

[Dr. Arch]

Voted for Tim Burns. Hoping Dallet and Burns make it through the primary, but questioning whether even low turnout could leave the field with just two left-wingers. Guess we'll find out later.

Pretty much this.

Two votes for Tim from my household

[Wiz in Wis]

I think I'm leaning towards Dallet in the primary only because I fear that Burns might lose the general. If it's Dallet vs Burns I'd probably vote Burns. Weird.

[MasterJedi]

I think I'm leaning towards Dallet in the primary only because I fear that Burns might lose the general. If it's Dallet vs Burns I'd probably vote Burns. Weird.

That's where my mind is going right now too.

[Gass3268]

Walker's approval is nearly identical to Trump's in a new PPP poll:

Walker:
Approve 43%
Disapprove 52%

Trump:
Approve 44%
Disapprove 52%

Obviously, not good for Walker

Source

[redjohn]

Walker's approval is nearly identical to Trump's in a new PPP poll:

Walker:
Approve 43%
Disapprove 52%

Trump:
Approve 44%
Disapprove 52%

Obviously, not good for Walker

Trump's approval doesn't look bad in Wisconsin. 44% approve (MOE not on document), Trump received 47.22% of the vote (only about 3% higher than approval rating), and presumably, some chunk of the unsure 4% will vote for Trump. The disapprove vote won't go solely to Democrats; 6.33% of the vote in 2016 went to other candidates. Subtract six percent from the "disapprove", give Trump the benefit of the MOE, and you have a real problem if Democrats are once again virtually tied in Wisconsin. Walker's approval rating is definitely looking bad for Republicans because third-party gubernatorial candidates only received about 1% in the last election, but Trump is looking steadier than some would lead you to believe.

[Holmes]

It's folly to extrapolate results for an election over 2 years from now based on one poll.

[Gass3268]

It's folly to extrapolate results for an election over 2 years from now based on one poll.

PPP has also leaned to the right since Trump has been President.

[MasterJedi]

It's folly to extrapolate results for an election over 2 years from now based on one poll.

For Walker at least we can use it, election is this fall. Hope he can get slapped out of office.

[Koharu]

I was voter #340 at around 1 this afternoon at the Verona library. Was very dead when I was there, but I'm betting most of the votes in Verona are in the evening. No hiccoughs with ID this time, and there were informative signs about the process, so overall it seems like the poll workers are more comfortable with how things go now than they were in November.

[Nhoj]

I had to re register, but since im still in the same town wasn't hard to do. Was around 35 votes so far which I would say is low even for here.

[Dr. Arch]

I had to re register, but since im still in the same town wasn't hard to do. Was around 35 votes so far which I would say is low even for here.

I was 60 at my ward really early in the morning, which is pretty high.

[Gass3268]

City of Madison was already to the statewide spring primary average by 11 AM:

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[Wiz in Wis]

City of Madison was already to the statewide spring primary average by 11 AM:

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Dane punched way above it's weight last spring too, which is part of the reason Evers crushed it in the DPI election. This is probably very good news for Burns, assuming that Dane is over-performing.