Vote counting update thread

[Tender Branson]

Folks, just lean back and chill for the next 3 weeks until all the states have certified their results by Mid-December and we'll know the real numbers.

(Well maybe not until next year, if states like New York find thousands of uncounted ballots in warehouses and include them into the final total by summer of next year, like it happened in 2008 ... )

[Tender Branson]

Folks, just lean back and chill for the next 3 weeks until all the states have certified their results by Mid-December and we'll know the real numbers.

(Well maybe not until next year, if states like New York find thousands of uncounted ballots in warehouses and include them into the final total by summer of next year, like it happened in 2008 ... )

Link:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93787.0

[Tender Branson]

BTW, here are the certification dates for most of the states:

http://www.nass.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=342%3Astate-election-results-reporting&catid=928%3Auncategorized-elections-voting&Itemid=391

[Tender Branson]

The final Colorado results with Larimer County now fully in:

1.308.607 votes - 51.6% Obama
1.168.839 votes - 46.1% Romney
     60.222 votes -   2.3% Others

The Colorado SOS page and Wikipedia still show the old results for CO and Larimer.

[Tender Branson]

Is California >60% Obama yet? It looks like it won't swing Democratic (Romney did well enough in rural NorCal and made some gains with rich white people), but it's clearly had a D trend this time around.

The latest vote dump from LA County took Obama to 59.8%

[Tender Branson]

Michigan now has official results:

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http://miboecfr.nictusa.com/election/results/12GEN/01000000.html

[Tender Branson]

How much longer will it take for the final count to be in?

In about 2 weeks, when NY certifies their result.

Absolute "final" numbers ? Probably at some point in 2013, when they find and add votes that were found in some garbage cans or warehouses ...

[Tender Branson]

This is truly beyond pathetic. Not even a Fourth-World country would still be counting votes.

Well thanks to all the vote-by-mail, encouraged mostly by Democrats, it takes forever.  If 90% of voters did so on Election Day at their precinct, we'd be done

Vote-by-mail is not the problem itself. There could be a requirement of course that all the mail ballots have to be at the county election commission by election day poll closing time. Otherwise they are rejected and not counted, period.

[Tender Branson]

So I'm guessing there aren't enough votes left for Obama to hit or pass 51.00% outright?

That and whether NY will swing to Obama (vs. 2008) are the two major things I'm still wondering about.

There should be enough left in NY State for Obama to hit 51.00% (he has 50.94 right now)

So, a likely end result is probably 51.1 to 47.2

[Tender Branson]

This is truly beyond pathetic. Not even a Fourth-World country would still be counting votes.

Well thanks to all the vote-by-mail, encouraged mostly by Democrats, it takes forever.  If 90% of voters did so on Election Day at their precinct, we'd be done

Washington's turnout was 81%; the highest in the county.

'Shame on the Democrats for encouraging that

Actually, Minnesota had the highest turnout: ca. 75%

WA is ranked 10th in turnout.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=164873.msg3546896#msg3546896

[Tender Branson]

This is truly beyond pathetic. Not even a Fourth-World country would still be counting votes.

Well thanks to all the vote-by-mail, encouraged mostly by Democrats, it takes forever.  If 90% of voters did so on Election Day at their precinct, we'd be done

Washington's turnout was 81%; the highest in the county.

'Shame on the Democrats for encouraging that

Actually, Minnesota had the highest turnout: ca. 75%

WA is ranked 10th in turnout.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=164873.msg3546896#msg3546896

Might be a VAP v. Registration issue?

VEP vs. Registration, yes.

I'm used to calculating the VEP turnout, because this is what we use here.

[Tender Branson]

NY and CA should have certified numbers in 1 week.

[Tender Branson]

Romney falls to 59.8% in Nebraska at certification. That gives me another point in my prediction.

Where did you get those numbers from ?

[Tender Branson]

Wee question...as I'm not American I don't understand how they can call an election on election day when actually there were millions of votes uncounted, anyone cares to elaborate?

Statistics

That's hardly enough to call an election when you only counted 60% of the votes

It is, possibly a lot less than that actually, depending on how close the election is and where the remaining votes are from.

If you have counted 60% of the votes on election day in let's say NY or CA and the counted results are 60-35 Obama, then you can argue that the rest doesn't differ too much from the counted results. Besides, you also have the exit polls.

[Tender Branson]

Looks like NY and NE are done as well and nothing has been added in NY ...

http://www.elections.ny.gov/NYSBOE/elections/2012/General/PresidentVicePresident12Provisional12102012.pdf

I thought Dec. 17 was the certification day in NY ? Or will they update later ?

[Tender Branson]

So what are the national numbers and percents now?

Right now:

51.0% Obama
47.3% Romney

But New York has about 400.000 to 500.000 ballots left to report.

Considering that Obama will win them by at least 65-33, because most of those votes come from NYC, the final margin will be more like 51.0 to 47.2 for Obama or:

65.940.000 votes for Obama (ca. 51.02%)
61.012.000 votes for Romney (ca. 47.21%)

[Tender Branson]

So what are the national numbers and percents now?

Right now:

51.0% Obama
47.3% Romney

But New York has about 400.000 to 500.000 ballots left to report.

Considering that Obama will win them by at least 65-33, because most of those votes come from NYC, the final margin will be more like 51.0 to 47.2 for Obama or:

65.940.000 votes for Obama (ca. 51.02%)
61.012.000 votes for Romney (ca. 47.21%)

The final best-case-scenario I can come up with is:

51.05% Obama
47.19% Romney

And this is only if there are 600.000 ballots left in NY, with Obama winning them 70-28 ...

[Tender Branson]

So what are the national numbers and percents now?

Right now:

51.0% Obama
47.3% Romney

But New York has about 400.000 to 500.000 ballots left to report.

Considering that Obama will win them by at least 65-33, because most of those votes come from NYC, the final margin will be more like 51.0 to 47.2 for Obama or:

65.940.000 votes for Obama (ca. 51.02%)
61.012.000 votes for Romney (ca. 47.21%)

The final best-case-scenario I can come up with is:

51.05% Obama
47.19% Romney

And this is only if there are 600.000 ballots left in NY, with Obama winning them 70-28 ...

Just curious: would that make a 5 mil vote margin?

Nope:

66.020 million against 61.030 million ...

Obama would need to win by 71% or so out of an estimated 600.000 remaining ballots to make it a 5 million margin.

But probably a lot less votes are remaining in NY State. Actually, nobody knows how many are remaining there. I only know that since election night reporting from NY, about 480.000 ballots have been added to the election night figure ...

[Tender Branson]

Are they done?

Nope.

Nobody actually knows how long it will take in NY or how many ballots there are left to count.

NY should use NJ as an example. It was also hit by Sandy and they finished counting a while ago.

Even the NY Times noted that NYC is an incompetent piece of crap when it comes to counting votes:

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[Tender Branson]

A lot from Long Island is still out and also a bit from upstate.

I think about 400.000 will be added. So about 50.000-100.000 is still missing.

[Tender Branson]

Does counting all the votes always take this long?

Well, in "2008" for example New York even found "new votes" in spring 2009 and amended their "final" results ...

It's a little bit of a disgrace and similar to voting in a 4th world country ...