500k+ metros for Romney (user search)
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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
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  2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results (Moderator: Dereich)
  500k+ metros for Romney (search mode)
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Author Topic: 500k+ metros for Romney  (Read 4705 times)
Badger
badger
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 40,328
United States


« on: November 20, 2012, 01:22:54 AM »

1. Dallas
2. Houston
3. Atlanta - You would have to go out pretty far for this.  If you take just the built up areas, I am pretty sure Obama won.
4. Phoenix
5. Pittsburgh - Romney won SW Pennsylvania, but if you just take the built up areas of Pittsburgh I think Obama won albeit by a rather small margin compared to what the Democrats usually win by.
6. San Antonio
7. Cincinnati
8. Kansas City - Johnson County, Missouri and Wyandotte County contain a large chunk of the metro population and they would solidly for Obama so I doubt he won the KC metro area unless you are using the media market area which maybe Romney did
9. Charlotte
10. Indianapolis - Marion County went for Obama by more than 20 points and I believe the majority of the Indianapolis metro area lives in Marion County.  Yes the surrouding counties went heavily for Romney but not likely enough to cancel out Obama's strength in Marion County.
11. Nashville
12. Jacksonville
13. Louisville
14. Oklahoma City
15. New Orleans
16. Salt Lake City
17 Birmingham
18. Tulsa
19. Fresno
20. Omaha
21. Bakersfield
22. Dayton
23. Baton Rouge
24. Grand Rapids
25. Little Rock
26. Sarasota
27. Knoxville
28. Charleston
29. Colorado Springs
30. Greenville
31. Fort Myers
32. Boise
33. Wichita
34. Lakeland
35. Augusta
36. Ogden
37. Harrisburg
38. Melbourne
39. Provo
40. Chattanooga
41. Lancaster

Asides from those pointed above, not much argument.  It also depends on how far out you stretch the metro area since the further you take anyone out the better it will be for Romney.  Area you just taking the continuous built up areas, any community within commuting distance, or the greater media market as depending which of those three you use you would get different results.

This is actually a good analysis for Pittsburgh actually. At least as far as culture goes. There a SW Pennsylvanians who consider themselves to live in 'pittsburgh' (or at least how they'd introduce themselves to strangers on vacation) who don't even live in Allegheny County.
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Badger
badger
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 40,328
United States


« Reply #1 on: November 23, 2012, 03:46:22 PM »

I'm not sure where you got the results for Atlanta, but in the 29 county Atlanta MSA, I have the following results:

Obama: 1,096,628 (50.26%)
Romney: 1,057,819 (48.48%)

I think your numbers might also include the counties in the Atlanta Combined Statistical Area?
I was using a misleading wikipedia article Tongue Checked with the offical census website and I shouldn't have been including Hall County. I stand corrected. I'm not super familiar with the Atlanta area. On paper, it looks too far for commuters, but the growth out there is explosive. What gives?

Have you double-checked Pgh?

@ Mileslunn: you are spot on. Pgh is one of the whitest metro areas in the north. It's Democratic strength was based on industial unions which, while not disappeared, have declined even more than elsewhere in the nation, and Democratic vote share along with it.
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