Pennsylvania 2014 Discussion Thread

[Peter the Lefty]

Damn, this is depressing.  I hope the Greens have ballot access. 

[windjammer]

Some speculation that Corbett might bow out after his first term.

Krazen, I think you should know because you are a republican, who could seek the republican nomination for the Pennsylvania governor if Corbett retires? Thanks

[Kung Fu Kenny]

Damn, this is depressing.  I hope the Greens have ballot access. 

Yep, this.

Some speculation that Corbett might bow out after his first term.

Krazen, I think you should know because you are a republican, who could seek the republican nomination for the Pennsylvania governor if Corbett retires? Thanks

Krazen's opinion shouldn't be valued.

If that happens, Bruce Castor might just have to run for the sake of the party's legitimacy.

[Morning in Atlas]

Some speculation that Corbett might bow out after his first term.

Krazen, I think you should know because you are a republican, who could seek the republican nomination for the Pennsylvania governor if Corbett retires? Thanks

Among the Congressmen, Gerlach is one who already tried to run for governor. They would be best with a SWPA candidate against an abortion shop owner.

And your best candidate from SWPA for the primary foiled the Voter ID plan. Give me the abortion shop owner any day, at least she respects democracy.

[Keystone Phil]

Talk of Corbett stepping aside or getting a primary has started up again but Castor has emphasized that he isn't going to run.

If Corbett does step aside, look for our Lt. Governor to run. He's a former Bucks county Commissioner who would do well in the SE. He has been a very loyal soldier for Corbett and conservative causes despite a more moderate background. He's also very passionate. Not sure if any other top tier candidates would jump in. Gerlach was interested in it in 2010 but now has a safe seat in the House and is the type that respects the party's wishes if the powers that be unite behind a candidate (in this case, probably Lt. Governor Cawley). Lower tier candidates would obviously run as well.

[Morning in Atlas]

Yeah, Cawley strikes me as the type to run if Corbett doesn't. I'm not sure if any Reps are running, but I think Gerlach is happy with his current job too. Phil, you know about anyone in the state house who might run?

I'm not betting on Turzai to beat Schwartz, considering he managed to royally screw up Voter ID and became the poster boy of the movement against it. Does he lack as much political savvy as I think he does?

[Keystone Phil]

Yeah, Voter ID isn't a losing issue for the GOP here. Whatever the case, I don't know where this talk about Turzai for Governor is coming from. He hasn't hinted at it and I highly doubt he'd do it.

Someone like Daryl Metcalfe - the firebrand far right wing State Representative from out west who ran for Lt. Governor in 2010 - might do it. He wouldn't win the primary and would still run for his House seat (as he did in 2010) but he does have a following. In a one-on-one with a total establishment type, he absolutely could make it interesting. The General with Metcalfe as the nominee would be...well...very good for one side and very bad for the other.

[Morning in Atlas]

Yeah, Voter ID isn't a losing issue for the GOP here. Whatever the case, I don't know where this talk about Turzai for Governor is coming from. He hasn't hinted at it and I highly doubt he'd do it.

Someone like Daryl Metcalfe - the firebrand far right wing State Representative from out west who ran for Lt. Governor in 2010 - might do it. He wouldn't win the primary and would still run for his House seat (as he did in 2010) but he does have a following. In a one-on-one with a total establishment type, he absolutely could make it interesting. The General with Metcalfe as the nominee would be...well...very good for one side and very bad for the other.

I got it from the Wikipedia page, so I have absolutely no idea what I'm doing.

Metcalfe sounds like a disaster for y'all though. Sounds more like Ted Cruz than Pat Toomey.

[Keystone Phil]

A new poll from Harper Polling shows a generic Republican trailing a general Dem by only one point but when asked about Corbett specifically, only 24% said he deserves re-election. A whopping 56% want someone else.

http://harperpolling.com/polls/pa-poll-state-budget-corbett-reelection#corbett

[windjammer]

A new poll from Harper Polling shows a generic Republican trailing a general Dem by only one point but when asked about Corbett specifically, only 24% said he deserves re-election. A whopping 56% want someone else.

http://harperpolling.com/polls/pa-poll-state-budget-corbett-reelection#corbett

So a pure toss up if Corbett is retiring?

[Keystone Phil]

A new poll from Harper Polling shows a generic Republican trailing a general Dem by only one point but when asked about Corbett specifically, only 24% said he deserves re-election. A whopping 56% want someone else.

http://harperpolling.com/polls/pa-poll-state-budget-corbett-reelection#corbett

So a pure toss up if Corbett is retiring?

If you just take the generic R vs. generic D numbers, sure. But if that was to happen, we'd see some stronger players on our bench stepping up and I think they'd be more appealing than McCord or Schwartz in a General.

[TX Conservative Dem]

If you look at Pennsylvania's historical trends, PA has been re-electing their governors since 1974 and I expect that to continue unless the PA GOP either recruits someone to challenge Corbett in a GOP primary or forces him to retire due to horrible approval ratings.

Meanwhile, the Pennsylvania Democrats need to get their act together by forcing the other candidates to DROP OUT and unite behind 1 candidate (Schwartz) considering that Pennsylvania has never elected a female governor ever.

[Keystone Phil]

If you look at Pennsylvania's historical trends, PA has been re-electing their governors since 1974 and I expect that to continue unless the PA GOP either recruits someone to challenge Corbett in a GOP primary or forces him to retire due to horrible approval ratings.

You mean you don't expect that to continue unless he is primaried or forced to retire, right?

By the way, recent write up in the national press about certain Republican Congressmen quietly putting out feelers for a run in case they have to step in due to more talk of Corbett being forced aside.

[Morning in Atlas]

If you look at Pennsylvania's historical trends, PA has been re-electing their governors since 1974 and I expect that to continue unless the PA GOP either recruits someone to challenge Corbett in a GOP primary or forces him to retire due to horrible approval ratings.

You mean you don't expect that to continue unless he is primaried or forced to retire, right?

By the way, recent write up in the national press about certain Republican Congressmen quietly putting out feelers for a run in case they have to step in due to more talk of Corbett being forced aside.

Which ones do you think? I think we established that Gerlach won't do it, and I don't think Fitzpatrick will either. Their seats are plausible opportunities for Democrats, so who else has gubernatorial aspirations?

[publicunofficial]

If you look at Pennsylvania's historical trends, PA has been re-electing their governors since 1974 and I expect that to continue unless the PA GOP either recruits someone to challenge Corbett in a GOP primary or forces him to retire due to horrible approval ratings.

You mean you don't expect that to continue unless he is primaried or forced to retire, right?

By the way, recent write up in the national press about certain Republican Congressmen quietly putting out feelers for a run in case they have to step in due to more talk of Corbett being forced aside.

Which ones do you think? I think we established that Gerlach won't do it, and I don't think Fitzpatrick will either. Their seats are plausible opportunities for Democrats, so who else has gubernatorial aspirations?

Either one could reconsider. Taking Corbett's place is a lot different than shoving Corbett aside. Though Fitzpatrick has said he doesn't want to be in politics forever (He's going to retire from the house in 2016 if I recall) and I doubt he'd take a run for Governor in any situation.

Out of the current reps, I'd bet Gerlach, Kelly and maybe Murphy & Barletta to take a shot.

[Keystone Phil]

If you look at Pennsylvania's historical trends, PA has been re-electing their governors since 1974 and I expect that to continue unless the PA GOP either recruits someone to challenge Corbett in a GOP primary or forces him to retire due to horrible approval ratings.

You mean you don't expect that to continue unless he is primaried or forced to retire, right?

By the way, recent write up in the national press about certain Republican Congressmen quietly putting out feelers for a run in case they have to step in due to more talk of Corbett being forced aside.

Which ones do you think? I think we established that Gerlach won't do it, and I don't think Fitzpatrick will either. Their seats are plausible opportunities for Democrats, so who else has gubernatorial aspirations?

I think Meehan would be most likely but Dent would also strongly consider it. Meehan would fare better with the base. Mike Kelly would be a real wildcard if he wants it. Not sure that he's interested but he's popular in the party and more recognizable (he's made national news). He'd be the real base favorite out of the Congressmen candidates unless Barletta ran.

[Keystone Phil]

Corbett's face literally in the crosshairs - http://www.politicspa.com/greene-co-dems-target-corbett-literally/50004/

[Napoleon]

Corbett's face literally in the crosshairs - http://www.politicspa.com/greene-co-dems-target-corbett-literally/50004/

Chances that he gets shot because of this?

[Morning in Atlas]

That's just terrible

[Kung Fu Kenny]

Yeah that's really distasteful

[You kip if you want to...]

Bad taste.

Remember when Palin did it?

[Miles]

Mark Critz is running for Lieutenant Governor.

[Keystone Phil]

Bad taste.

Remember when Palin did it?

Except it wasn't remotely the same.

And damn you, Miles! I was here to break that news!

[Miles]

And damn you, Miles! I was here to break that news!

Sorry Phil! Yeah, I hate when that happens to me.

What do you think about his chances?

[Keystone Phil]

I think he has a great chance if he isn't already the frontrunner. With every (major, at least) candidate for Governor hailing from the eastern half of the state, a Southwest candidate for Lt. Governor is perfect for geographical balance. Also, the Dems will be looking to win over moderate to conservative Dems in the General. Critz helps with that, of course...to the extent that the Lt. Gubernatorial matters. He would help on a personal level, too. I think it's fair to say that someone like Allyson Schwartz isn't going to connect on a personal level as well in the T and in most areas out west. Critz would be chief surrogate in those areas.

Critz is also a big name in the party in general. Compare him to almost every other candidate* for the spot and Critz becomes the clear star. Even if he wasn't, look at the 2010 Lt. Gubernatorial primary on the Dem side. The big name - former Philadelphia City Controller and major Dem activist Jonathan Saidel - lost because there was another, lesser known (in a statewide context) candidate from Philly. They both lost to not-too-well-known two term State Representative Scott Conklin from the Penn State area because the SE split between Saidel and Smith-Ribner. It was a three way squeaker but Conklin winning was still a big upset. Critz could also benefit from a similar split and much more so than Conklin did if more eastern candidates got in.

*The obstacle for Critz is that there is one big name candidate running: State Teachers' Union President and former Allegheny county Councilman Mike Crossey. He'll get support out west and is obviously a player in the labor movement. We'll have to see how much it matters though. For all we know, he could bow out in favor of Critz.