Pennsylvania 2014 Discussion Thread

[Napoleon]

Either he's still having a ton of fun poking Corbett or Schwartz's move helped push him towards finally jumping in - http://www.brucecastor.com/

It's going to be quite a year!

Friends of Bruce Castor lol

[Keystone Phil]

Why is that funny? That's a common campaign PAC title (at least around here).

[Napoleon]

Why is that funny? That's a common campaign PAC title (at least around here).

That needs to stop. Its incredibly tacky. I don't understand why Castor would make a career killing primary run instead of trying the open Congressional seat. Its not like either is in his favor, so why beat up your own party's incumbent?

[Keystone Phil]

First of all, I don't think he's even in the new 13th. Secondly, it's an even more Dem favored district now. Thirdly, it's not as evenly split between Montco and NE Philly anymore.

Aside from all of that, he may (I still say "may" because he really might just be having fun at Corbett's expense. They hate each other) want to run because it isn't necessarily career ending. This is his opportunity (if ever there was a time). He is possibly taking on a member of his own party because the Governor isn't popular. Only 49% of Republicans in a recent PPP poll said they'd support Corbett for a second term. It isn't crazy for people to take a look at challenging him when you hear that result. Plus, there are enough people in the party that are worried that Corbett is a goner and want to save the Governorship/down ballot races while there is time.

[krazen1211]

http://articles.philly.com/2013-02-25/news/37271768_1_stack-58th-ward-democratic-leader

Stack, 49, is betting the voters of Pennsylvania are ready for a machine politician from the city much of the state loves to hate. He is Democratic leader of the 58th Ward, son of a beloved ward leader, and grandson of a New Deal congressman (a sponsor of the first federal minimum wage, 25 cents an hour).

But the Northeast is more like Pittsburgh or Scranton than Center City, Stack argues. And though he has supported her, he thinks Rep. Allyson Schwartz of Montgomery County is too liberal to win statewide.

"She's done a great job in Congress and is on the fast track to leadership," Stack said Friday in an interview at the Tiffany Diner on Roosevelt Boulevard. "I think Allyson can best serve Pennsylvania in Washington."

[Keystone Phil]

Hahaha. Oh man. If he does this, he could be a real pain for her in the region. I think that's the extent of it though.

He's got a point about her ideology but Schwartz has a perfect response to that, which any moron could see and use.

[TeePee4Prez]

IMO, it would be foolish for Stack or Schwartz to run.  Schwartz should wait till 2016 to challenge Toomey.  I'd rather go with McCord.

[Keystone Phil]

Castor wrote to Corbett, urging him to reject the Medicaid expansion.

Things are spicing up...

[Keystone Phil]

Likely GOP primary voters

Corbett - 49%
Undecided - 30%
Castor - 21%


Sestak is clearly unlikely to run now but was holding a one point lead over Schwartz, 20% to 19%. McCord is at 7% while Tom Knox clocks in at 3%.


http://www.politicspa.com/harper-poll-corbett-sestak-lead-guv-primaries/46492/

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

If Sestak doesn't run, I'm not sure how much I like any of the other possibilities.

[Keystone Phil]

While we're speaking about that Harper Poll, here are the results concerning the state's most respected politicians.

http://www.harperpolling.com/polls/pennsylvania-statewide-poll-38065980#respect

Governor Tom Ridge - 24%
Governor Ed Rendell - 22%
Senator Rick Santorum - 21%
Governor Robert Casey Sr. - 18%
Senator Arlen Specter - 15%

Santorum doing that well and above Casey, Sr.? I'd love to believe it but...uh...

Also, Santorum beats Ridge among seniors but loses to Ridge among Republicans?

[Morning in Atlas]

While we're speaking about that Harper Poll, here are the results concerning the state's most respected politicians.

http://www.harperpolling.com/polls/pennsylvania-statewide-poll-38065980#respect

Governor Tom Ridge - 24%
Governor Ed Rendell - 22%
Senator Rick Santorum - 21%
Governor Robert Casey Sr. - 18%
Senator Arlen Specter - 15%

Santorum doing that well and above Casey, Sr.? I'd love to believe it but...uh...

Also, Santorum beats Ridge among seniors but loses to Ridge among Republicans?

AFAIK this is just who they respect most proportionally, not a ranking system. Santorum is the only one out of these guys that isn't moderate, so I'm guessing most of his votes come from his base. If it was a ranking system I'm sure Casey would be higher.

[Keystone Phil]

PPP claims Corbett's numbers have gotten worse. He now trails every possible Dem opponent.

[Keystone Phil]

Corbett leads Castor 43% to 23% in the latest PPP poll. That's down from 51%-11%. 49% of Republicans want someone else as the nominee. In a match up (which will never happen) between Corbett and Tom Smith, the Governor is only up by four.

Corbett's approval rating is 33%. Disapproval at 58%.

[Obamanation]

Corbett leads Castor 43% to 23% in the latest PPP poll. That's down from 51%-11%. 49% of Republicans want someone else as the nominee. In a match up (which will never happen) between Corbett and Tom Smith, the Governor is only up by four.

Corbett's approval rating is 33%. Disapproval at 58%.

LOL

[Keystone Phil]

Yeah, I think this confirms that he's getting a serious primary challenge either from Castor or someone else. At this point, I think retirement is very possible, too.

[You kip if you want to...]

Corbett leads Castor 43% to 23% in the latest PPP poll. That's down from 51%-11%. 49% of Republicans want someone else as the nominee. In a match up (which will never happen) between Corbett and Tom Smith, the Governor is only up by four.

Corbett's approval rating is 33%. Disapproval at 58%.

Corbett's gone then. This is how these things start.

[Keystone Phil]

By the way, 45% of Republicans disapprove of his job performance. Only 43% approve.

[Obamanation]

By the way, 45% of Republicans disapprove of his job performance. Only 43% approve.

See that strange because those are the likely primary voters. Of republicans in the GE poll, they approve 48-41.

[Vosem]

Corbett is basically coming to a point where, unless he starts recovering right now (like Snyder has), he will lose the primary. His lead over Castor seems to be purely name rec.

Castor himself, as (if I understand this correctly), a conservative but from and liked in Montco, seems to be a pretty strong candidate. Phil?

[Tender Branson]

Quinnipiac has their own PA poll out today, so we'll see if they back up PPPs findings:

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[Keystone Phil]

Corbett is basically coming to a point where, unless he starts recovering right now (like Snyder has), he will lose the primary. His lead over Castor seems to be purely name rec.

Castor himself, as (if I understand this correctly), a conservative but from and liked in Montco, seems to be a pretty strong candidate. Phil?

Castor is generally liked in Montco. He was a very popular District Attorney and top vote getter for Commissioner in 2007 but has hit some speed bumps over the years with people inside the state and local party. In 2011, the GOP lost control of the board for the first time since the 1800s and Castor came in behind both Shapiro and Richards so he got the third of three seats. The divisions within the Montco GOP and a stellar Shapiro campaign are the reasons why that happened. Since then though Castor and the Dems have governed in a very cooperative way, with several publications running stories focusing on the bipartisanship, calling it a model for governance.

I'd say Castor is conservative but he doesn't have the reputation as a saber rattler. So much talk about Castor is about his time as DA, Commissioner and his personality so you don't get too much insight into his ideology. I think most people would say he's a moderate just because of where he's from and his success there. Plus, his very loyal personal following is within a county party known for having been dominated by moderates so that plays a role, too.

Bottom line: we'll have to see if/when he runs just how conservative he really is but don't expect him to be some conservative icon.

[Keystone Phil]

Quinnipiac's findings...

53% of registered voters oppose Corbett's re-election. Approval rating at 39%/disapprove at 49%.

59% of Republicans say he deserves another term but 33% say he does not. He trails all Dems except Knox, Wolf and McCord (surprising) but almost all head-to-head match ups are within three points.

In other news, Casey has a 48%-34% approval rating. Toomey is at 43%-32%.

[Keystone Phil]

For the record, Tom Smith officially announced that he is not running.

[krazen1211]

Quinnipiac's findings...

53% of registered voters oppose Corbett's re-election. Approval rating at 39%/disapprove at 49%.

59% of Republicans say he deserves another term but 33% say he does not. He trails all Dems except Knox, Wolf and McCord (surprising) but almost all head-to-head match ups are within three points.

In other news, Casey has a 48%-34% approval rating. Toomey is at 43%-32%.

His numbers have cratered in the T, where he won 70-30 or so in 2010. Breaking even in SEPA and 22% in Philadelphia are actually not bad.