NoVA vs Montgomery County, MD

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

For the longest time, if you were a Democrat and wanted suburban living in DC, you choose to live in Maryland, in part due to the state's progressive reputation.

If you were a Republican and wanted to live in suburbs, you chose Virginia, in part due to the state's conservative reputation and low tax rate. Virginia also attracted more members of the military/Pentagon, etc, while Montgomery  attracted immigrants long before Virginia did.

Now, however, demographics have caugth up with Fairfax. Also, Fairfax is arguably close to an outer suburb since both Arlington and Alexandria -- both heavily Democratic - are an easier commute to DC. Montogomery is an inner suburb. So in some ways better to compare Montgomery to Arlington than it is to Fairfax.

Fairfax was pretty solidly GOP until 2004, when Kerry won it. So fact 60 percent is now already  routine for Democratic candidates -- at least Obama and Warner/Kaine/Webb in statewide races - shows you how fast Fairfax is trending Democratic.

Don't think Fairfax will ever be as Democratic as Montgomery, but think eventually 65 percent  for statewide Democratic candidates will be attainable.  But still think a moderate GOP presidential candidate -- like Christie - could perhaps still keep the county competitive again in presidential elections.

Biden and Warner both got nearly 70% in Fairfax County last year, and Kaine got 71% in 2018. Democrats have certainly gone past this benchmark.

And that, combined with VA's population growth being concentrated there, is a key factor in VA losing swing state status.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

For the longest time, if you were a Democrat and wanted suburban living in DC, you choose to live in Maryland, in part due to the state's progressive reputation.

If you were a Republican and wanted to live in suburbs, you chose Virginia, in part due to the state's conservative reputation and low tax rate. Virginia also attracted more members of the military/Pentagon, etc, while Montgomery  attracted immigrants long before Virginia did.

Now, however, demographics have caugth up with Fairfax. Also, Fairfax is arguably close to an outer suburb since both Arlington and Alexandria -- both heavily Democratic - are an easier commute to DC. Montogomery is an inner suburb. So in some ways better to compare Montgomery to Arlington than it is to Fairfax.

Fairfax was pretty solidly GOP until 2004, when Kerry won it. So fact 60 percent is now already  routine for Democratic candidates -- at least Obama and Warner/Kaine/Webb in statewide races - shows you how fast Fairfax is trending Democratic.

Don't think Fairfax will ever be as Democratic as Montgomery, but think eventually 65 percent  for statewide Democratic candidates will be attainable.  But still think a moderate GOP presidential candidate -- like Christie - could perhaps still keep the county competitive again in presidential elections.

Biden and Warner both got nearly 70% in Fairfax County last year, and Kaine got 71% in 2018. Democrats have certainly gone past this benchmark.

And that, combined with VA's population growth being concentrated there, is a key factor in VA losing swing state status.

This is certainly true. It truly is fascinating to see how dramatically Northern Virginia-and many other regions of the country, have shifted in just a decade. Biden did 10% better than Obama in Fairfax County and Loudoun County and 6% better in Prince William County, and he also improved by 10% over Obama in both Arlington and Alexandria. Henrico County moved towards the Democrats, Biden improved over Obama by 10% in Albermarle County, and he flipped Chesterfield County and Virginia Beach City. However, Obama outperformed Biden throughout much of rural Virginia, including the Black Belt, and won several counties (i.e. Nelson, Caroline, Essex) that Biden lost. The trends have gone in both directions.

Fairfax County had a lot of people who grew up despising and/or disliking Bush and the early 2000s GOP, and these people ended up voting for Obama in 2008 and 2012. They became regular voters in the later 2010s, powering Democrats to a win over Barbara Comstock and flipping many seats in the House of Delegates to the Democrats.
The process is still ongoing as Old Virginia slowly melts away and Dems continue to build their demographic advantage in the region. There are also party switchers who have left the GOP as the GOP has turned more and more away from the Bush style GOP that won in Northern Virginia.
Meanwhile, in SW VA, New Deal Era Dems died off, lowering the Dem floor there and leaving Rep. Rick Boucher an ex-Representative.