Predict the 2014 Senate result

[Lief 🗽]

It'll be fun to look back on this in two years and see how wrong (or maybe right) we were.

Here is the map:

And here's my prediction:

[Mehmentum]

Light shades are party change.
Assuming people who haven't said they won't run, do in fact run. If the senators of Arkansas, South Dakota, West Virginia, or Maine decide not to run for reelection, the other party would be heavily favored to pick up their seat.    

Edit: Of course this is all very speculative. 

[Devils30]

Pryor should be much tougher to beat than Lincoln. Everyone knows he's a moderate and if economy is better the tea party anger factor won't be there either.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Hermanator primaries Saxby!!!!! Does he beat Congressmen John Barrow? Stay Tuned!!!!



Not really, but it would be hilarious.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

A lot depends on who runs for reelection and who retires.  Here are my preliminary ratings (I would give maps but there are so many possible scenarios that it would take forever):

Alabama
Safe GOP unless Sessions retires, but even then would probably remain in Republican hands.

Alaska
I expect Begich to run for reelection, and as a freshman Senator, he should face a real challenge.  Any strong Republican challenger could very well beat him, but never underestimate the power of incumbency.  Toss-up.

Arkansas
Safe Dem unless Pryor retires, otherwise Toss-up.

Colorado
Udall probably will run for a second term, and would be a strong contender, but I'm not counting Republicans out.  Someone like Jane Norton could knock him off.  Toss-up.

Delaware
Coons probably runs again, in which case Safe Dem.  Otherwise Lean Dem.

Georgia
Saxby Chambliss likely runs (and wins) again.  Safe GOP.

Idaho
Same as Georgia, except with Jim Risch.

Illinois
A lot of people here on the forum seem to think that Durbin will retire, but I doubt that.  If he runs for reelection, he'll win.  If not, it could be a race, although Illinois has such strong Democrat leanings that they may hold on to the seat anyway.

Iowa
Safe Dem as long as Harkin runs, otherwise Toss-up.

Kansas
Roberts runs and wins.  Safe GOP.

Kentucky
One of only two real chances I see for a Dem gain.  McConnell would still be formidable if he runs again, but his ties to the GOP Senate leadership could hurt him.  If he retires, then Toss-up.  Otherwise, Lean GOP.

Lousiana
Could be close, regardless of whether Landrieu runs.  Toss-up.

Maine
Lean GOP if Collins runs for reelection, Toss-up otherwise.

Massachusetts
If John Kerry retires or gets appointed to President Obama's cabinet, then there may be an opening for Scott Brown to regain his seat or another strong Republican to get it, but in one of America's most liberal states, that may be a challenge.

Michigan
Safe Dem if Levin runs, Toss-up if he doesn't.

Minnesota
Franken will be hard to beat, but a strong Republican could do it.

Mississippi
Probably stays GOP no matter what Cochran does.

Montana
Baucus would be very strong, but beatable, if he runs, but if not, then Toss-up.

Nebraska
Johanns runs and easily defends his seat.

New Hampshire
Shaheen will be formidable, but again, a strong Republican candidate could beat her.

New Jersey
Safe Dem if Lautenberg runs, Lean Dem if not.

New Mexico
The other Udall probably has the biggest advantage, but could still lose.

North Carolina
Perhaps one of the best chances for a Republican gain.  Hagan could very well lose to any strong challenger, but don't count her out.

Oklahoma
Safe GOP no matter what.

Oregon
Merkely may have some major advantages, but could still lose.

Rhode Island
Safe Dem if Reed runs again, Lean Dem otherwise.

South Carolina
Safe GOP no matter what Graham does.

South Dakota
Lean Dem if Johnson runs, but Toss-up if he retires.

Tennessee
Probably stays in GOP control regardless of what Alexander does.

Texas
Safe for Cornyn or any other Republican.

Virigina
Toss-up, even if Warner runs again.  A strong Republican could beat him, but if none of them run, then he probably wins.

West Virigina]
Could be competitive, but Lean Dem, if Rockefeller retires.  Safe Dem if he runs.

Wyoming
Safe GOP, Enzi running or not.

[Mr.Phips]

A lot depends on who runs for reelection and who retires.  Here are my preliminary ratings (I would give maps but there are so many possible scenarios that it would take forever):

Alabama
Safe GOP unless Sessions retires, but even then would probably remain in Republican hands.

Alaska
I expect Begich to run for reelection, and as a freshman Senator, he should face a real challenge.  Any strong Republican challenger could very well beat him, but never underestimate the power of incumbency.  Toss-up.

Arkansas
Safe Dem unless Pryor retires, otherwise Toss-up.

Colorado
Udall probably will run for a second term, and would be a strong contender, but I'm not counting Republicans out.  Someone like Jane Norton could knock him off.  Toss-up.

Delaware
Coons probably runs again, in which case Safe Dem.  Otherwise Lean Dem.

Georgia
Saxby Chambliss likely runs (and wins) again.  Safe GOP.

Idaho
Same as Georgia, except with Jim Risch.

Illinois
A lot of people here on the forum seem to think that Durbin will retire, but I doubt that.  If he runs for reelection, he'll win.  If not, it could be a race, although Illinois has such strong Democrat leanings that they may hold on to the seat anyway.

Iowa
Safe Dem as long as Harkin runs, otherwise Toss-up.

Kansas
Roberts runs and wins.  Safe GOP.

Kentucky
One of only two real chances I see for a Dem gain.  McConnell would still be formidable if he runs again, but his ties to the GOP Senate leadership could hurt him.  If he retires, then Toss-up.  Otherwise, Lean GOP.

Lousiana
Could be close, regardless of whether Landrieu runs.  Toss-up.

Maine
Lean GOP if Collins runs for reelection, Toss-up otherwise.

Massachusetts
If John Kerry retires or gets appointed to President Obama's cabinet, then there may be an opening for Scott Brown to regain his seat or another strong Republican to get it, but in one of America's most liberal states, that may be a challenge.

Michigan
Safe Dem if Levin runs, Toss-up if he doesn't.

Minnesota
Franken will be hard to beat, but a strong Republican could do it.

Mississippi
Probably stays GOP no matter what Cochran does.

Montana
Baucus would be very strong, but beatable, if he runs, but if not, then Toss-up.

Nebraska
Johanns runs and easily defends his seat.

New Hampshire
Shaheen will be formidable, but again, a strong Republican candidate could beat her.

New Jersey
Safe Dem if Lautenberg runs, Lean Dem if not.

New Mexico
The other Udall probably has the biggest advantage, but could still lose.

North Carolina
Perhaps one of the best chances for a Republican gain.  Hagan could very well lose to any strong challenger, but don't count her out.

Oklahoma
Safe GOP no matter what.

Oregon
Merkely may have some major advantages, but could still lose.

Rhode Island
Safe Dem if Reed runs again, Lean Dem otherwise.

South Carolina
Safe GOP no matter what Graham does.

South Dakota
Lean Dem if Johnson runs, but Toss-up if he retires.

Tennessee
Probably stays in GOP control regardless of what Alexander does.

Texas
Safe for Cornyn or any other Republican.

Virigina
Toss-up, even if Warner runs again.  A strong Republican could beat him, but if none of them run, then he probably wins.

West Virigina]
Could be competitive, but Lean Dem, if Rockefeller retires.  Safe Dem if he runs.

Wyoming
Safe GOP, Enzi running or not.

Colorado is almost certainly not a tossup.  That state is only getting tougher for Republicans.  Even Bennet survived the 2010 wave and Udall is much stronger. 

Virginia is not a tossup either.  Warner is really, really popular.  Unless he retires, its likely Dem.

[RogueBeaver]

Competitive races only...

AK: Lean R, but depends who runs. Parnell (if he doesn't run for a second term) or Sullivan would be best for the GOP here.

AR: Lean D. Griffin will give Pryor a tough fight but he's fairly popular in Arkansas, could go either way.

CO: Safe D, Udall's running again.

IA: Apparently Harkin's running again, so Safe D.

IL: If Durbin retires then competitive but all the best Pubs are looking at the governor's race, so who knows. Depends on who runs for both parties, Lean D for now.

LA: Landrieu is running and Cassidy is her most likely opponent, with the Jindal machine going full Blitzkrieg. Tossup/Slight R.

MA: Kerry's running again and I doubt Obama wants to potentially let Brown back into the Senate with a special election.

ME: Safe R if Collins runs, safe D if she retires.

MI: Safe D either way, the Pubs are either too conservative or too weak. Maybe TLL could make it somewhat competitive if she wanted.

MT: Empty GOP bench and Schweitzer won't primary Baucus. Safe D.

NH: GOP has a good bench but Shaheen is formidable. Likely D.

NC: Depends who runs for the GOP.

VA: Safe D with Warner, and since Warner apparently gave McAuliffe the green light to run for governor Warner's probably staying in the Senate. McDonnell's uninterested in the Senate.

WV: Rocky's probably retiring after his anti-coal screed, so the seat is SMC's if she wants it.

[SPC]

[badgate]

How can one make a map prediction?

[Miles]

Of course, the highly unpopular Mary Landrieu will certainly lose

How can one make a map prediction?

Just use the Electoral Vote calculator.

[RogueBeaver]

What is her popularity like nowadays? I know she tanked 2 years ago but recovered somewhat last year.

[Gass3268]

WV: Rocky's probably retiring after his anti-coal screed, so the seat is SMC's if she wants it.

What happen's if Rocky is just changing his tune on coal but still plans to run again?

[Miles]

What is her popularity like nowadays? I know she tanked 2 years ago but recovered somewhat last year.

53 or 54 percent approval last I saw. Vitter was at 56.

[badgate]

[Bacon King]

[Bacon King]

Hermanator primaries Saxby!!!!! Does he beat Congressmen John Barrow? Stay Tuned!!!!



Not really, but it would be hilarious.

Even better: Newt wants to feel like he's still relevant, so he runs too! CAIN vs. NEWT vs. CHAMBLISS! (that would actually be an amazing race and would lead to a very interesting map).

[Landslide Lyndon]

Is Begich really that endangered? What are his approvals? Alaska is a weird state and I wouldn't be surprised to see him easily reelected since he held a low profile during his first term and seems to be in good terms with Murkowski.

[Mehmentum]

Is Begich really that endangered? What are his approvals? Alaska is a weird state and I wouldn't be surprised to see him easily reelected since he held a low profile during his first term and seems to be in good terms with Murkowski.

Alaska has also had this surprising Dem trend.  Its shifted 7.4 points Democratic with respect to the national vote between 2004 and 2012 (using 2004 to avoid Palin messing with the result). 

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

WV is safe as long as Capito doesn't run.

[Holmes]

Johnson, Rockefeller and Collins retire, Pryor is defeated. Bauchus, Landrieu and Begich hold on, Hagan, Franken and Merkley are comfortably re-elected.

[Mr.Phips]

Johnson, Rockefeller and Collins retire, Pryor is defeated. Bauchus, Landrieu and Begich hold on, Hagan, Franken and Merkley are comfortably re-elected.

Pretty much what ive got, but I would flip Louisiana and Arkansas around. 

[Holmes]

The black and Cajun vote can save Landrieu. Pryor won't be so lucky.

[RogueBeaver]

Cotton, Griffin and Womack are all mulling runs against Pryor, but also looking at the gubernatorial.

[traininthedistance]

Johnson, Rockefeller and Collins retire, Pryor is defeated. Bauchus, Landrieu and Begich hold on, Hagan, Franken and Merkley are comfortably re-elected.

This is my map as well.

[Holmes]

Cotton, Griffin and Womack are all mulling runs against Pryor, but also looking at the gubernatorial.

Republicans will win both.