How much different would the EC have been...

[SetonHallPirate]

...if Obama hadn't sleepwalked through the first debate? North Carolina might have gone blue, but his second-closest state, Georgia, he lost by eight points. I'm simply not sure that, other than North Carolina, there would have been a difference in the Electoral College.

[BlueSwan]

Not all that much, really. The most important thing about the first debate wasn't really Obamas lacklustre performance, but more Romneys performance which flew in the face of the portrait the Obama campaign had succesfully tried to paint of him. That's also why Obamas two wins afterwards didn't really change all that much.

At most, Obama wins North Carolina. Everything else was always too far away.

[DemPGH]

No, virtually no difference, IMO. The polls prior to that first debate largely showed a LOT of room for ground to be made up, and pollsters shifted to show a more energized GOP base. Also, I do think conservatives after that first debate did harden on Romney - it was the excuse they were looking for, but it did not depress Dems and would not have changed the EC map much if at all.

The only difference might have been some of those margins in PA, WI, etc., especially if Romney had been same-old and Obama had performed better.

[minionofmidas]

Either that, or no change.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

It's even possible Romney would have done better if Obama hadn't flubbed the first debate.  The first debate debacle basically got Romney all the votes he was likely to gain from the debates in one fell swoop.  If he'd gotten over the course of several debates he might actually have built up that momentum he was hoping for.  Instead, it was as if the record player was jarred and jumped the needle to an earlier track, but the album of "Obama's Reelection Melodies" was never put into reverse.

[afleitch]

It's even possible Romney would have done better if Obama hadn't flubbed the first debate.  The first debate debacle basically got Romney all the votes he was likely to gain from the debates in one fell swoop.  If he'd gotten over the course of several debates he might actually have built up that momentum he was hoping for.  Instead, it was as if the record player was jarred and jumped the needle to an earlier track, but the album of "Obama's Reelection Melodies" was never put into reverse.

I agree. It was likely that the gap would have closed as we got closer to the end; better it happen a month before the election then for Obama to rebound. It highlighted Obama's firewall early on and allowed resources to be targeted effectively. I'm starting to wonder whether Obama 'threw' the first debate on purpose.