White Trend Map 2008 -> 2012

[Tender Branson]

Based on Exit Poll data from 31 states:

[Tender Branson]

Even though there is no Exit Poll from WV, it's pretty easy to calculate, because WV is 95% White.

The 2008 exit was 57-41 McCain among Whites and the state result was 55.6-42.5

So, we have to adjust it only by a factor of 1.5

West Virginia was 62.3-35.5 this year, so we can assume that by adjusting it with the 1.5 factor, the exit poll would have showed 64-34 among Whites.

That would put it on -6 in the trend chart and map (going from 57-41 (-16) to 64-34 (-30) and factoring in a 8 point national swing).

So, WV would actually not have the worst trend away from Obama this year ...

[Tender Branson]

What happened in Alabama?

In addition to no more room to go down, perhaps...maybe...some white Democrats who were uncomfortable with the idea of a black president and then got used to it? Also, perhaps some white conservatives staying home.

This appears to be the white 2012 map (without shading). Delaware was the only unpolled state in doubt.

Iowa. LOL.

[Tender Branson]

Whites certainly swung/trended Democratic in Louisiana. Missouri's swing away from Obama this year is rather strange; there doesn't seem to be any particular reason for it to swing more than any other state's white voters. The one that shocks me is New Mexico; given that the state trended Republican this year, did Romney shoot up with Latinos or was the exit poll there an outlier?

Obama did indeed 3 points worse with NM Hispanics than he did in 2008.

[Tender Branson]

This may be a dumb question, but where do you get the full exit polls? CNN used to post them, but now all they post are horrendous looking charts. Elsewhere, I've only been able to find filtered bits of information but no raw data.

Fox News has a good exit poll table.