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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  U.S. Presidential Election Results
  2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results (Moderators: Torie, ON Progressive)
  White Trend Map 2008 -> 2012
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Author Topic: White Trend Map 2008 -> 2012  (Read 3583 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: November 09, 2012, 05:45:36 am »

Based on Exit Poll data from 31 states:



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morgieb
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« Reply #1 on: November 09, 2012, 06:14:47 am »

What happened in Alabama?
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The Ex-Factor
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« Reply #2 on: November 09, 2012, 11:42:23 am »

Couldn't get any more racist? Christians who didn't want to vote for a Mormon stayed home? Mississippi was similarly on the high end of the trend map. If ONLY we got exit polls from Arkansas, Louisiana, Tennessee, etc...to see if there were similar trends in the rest of the South...grumble
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #3 on: November 09, 2012, 11:54:41 am »

Even though there is no Exit Poll from WV, it's pretty easy to calculate, because WV is 95% White.

The 2008 exit was 57-41 McCain among Whites and the state result was 55.6-42.5

So, we have to adjust it only by a factor of 1.5

West Virginia was 62.3-35.5 this year, so we can assume that by adjusting it with the 1.5 factor, the exit poll would have showed 64-34 among Whites.

That would put it on -6 in the trend chart and map (going from 57-41 (-16) to 64-34 (-30) and factoring in a 8 point national swing).

So, WV would actually not have the worst trend away from Obama this year ...
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nclib
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« Reply #4 on: November 09, 2012, 12:21:52 pm »


In addition to no more room to go down, perhaps...maybe...some white Democrats who were uncomfortable with the idea of a black president and then got used to it? Also, perhaps some white conservatives staying home.

This appears to be the white 2012 map (without shading). Delaware was the only unpolled state in doubt.

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Tender Branson
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« Reply #5 on: November 09, 2012, 12:45:12 pm »


In addition to no more room to go down, perhaps...maybe...some white Democrats who were uncomfortable with the idea of a black president and then got used to it? Also, perhaps some white conservatives staying home.

This appears to be the white 2012 map (without shading). Delaware was the only unpolled state in doubt.



Iowa. LOL.
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opebo
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« Reply #6 on: November 09, 2012, 12:47:29 pm »

Here's my map of how this matters, based on the 'trend' number in your graph and the relative share of the white vote in the state:



Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania all have the potential to become problematic for the Democrats if this white trend continues.  Montana is moving further out of reach, and in Arizona the white vote has the potential to quite easily counteract Hispanic increase with increasing GOP white majorities, for a long time to come.

By contrast it is excellent news in New Hampshire, Iowa, and Maine - they're becoming more reliably Democrat.  At the same time Virginia's and (down the road) North Carolina's status as Democrat-leaning states due to increasing minorities and an influx of liberal whites is in no way counteracted by any 'existing white backlash'. 

Finally I colored Georgia, South Carolina, and Texas green as they have a high potential for changes in white voting behavior to either counteract or fail to counteract increases in minorities - we really need figures on those.

On the whole I'd say the original poster's map shows the white situation is pretty harmful in almost twice as many electoral votes as it is helpful, though probably electorally irrelevant in most of the country as it won't change the outcomes.



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Snowstalker's Last Stand
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« Reply #7 on: November 09, 2012, 12:57:33 pm »

Whites certainly swung/trended Democratic in Louisiana. Missouri's swing away from Obama this year is rather strange; there doesn't seem to be any particular reason for it to swing more than any other state's white voters. The one that shocks me is New Mexico; given that the state trended Republican this year, did Romney shoot up with Latinos or was the exit poll there an outlier?
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #8 on: November 09, 2012, 01:15:22 pm »

Whites certainly swung/trended Democratic in Louisiana. Missouri's swing away from Obama this year is rather strange; there doesn't seem to be any particular reason for it to swing more than any other state's white voters. The one that shocks me is New Mexico; given that the state trended Republican this year, did Romney shoot up with Latinos or was the exit poll there an outlier?

Obama did indeed 3 points worse with NM Hispanics than he did in 2008.
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nclib
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« Reply #9 on: November 09, 2012, 08:12:34 pm »

Arizona is surprising given the home state advantage in 2008. Unless McCain overperformed with minorities.

Can ND, KY, and WY be projected (over 85% white)?
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LastVoter
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« Reply #10 on: November 09, 2012, 08:44:20 pm »

Here's my map of how this matters, based on the 'trend' number in your graph and the relative share of the white vote in the state:



Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania all have the potential to become problematic for the Democrats if this white trend continues.  Montana is moving further out of reach, and in Arizona the white vote has the potential to quite easily counteract Hispanic increase with increasing GOP white majorities, for a long time to come.

By contrast it is excellent news in New Hampshire, Iowa, and Maine - they're becoming more reliably Democrat.  At the same time Virginia's and (down the road) North Carolina's status as Democrat-leaning states due to increasing minorities and an influx of liberal whites is in no way counteracted by any 'existing white backlash'. 

Finally I colored Georgia, South Carolina, and Texas green as they have a high potential for changes in white voting behavior to either counteract or fail to counteract increases in minorities - we really need figures on those.

On the whole I'd say the original poster's map shows the white situation is pretty harmful in almost twice as many electoral votes as it is helpful, though probably electorally irrelevant in most of the country as it won't change the outcomes.




I would add Minnesota to the future concerns list, it's highly suburban, and underperformed in swing.
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Beet
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« Reply #11 on: November 09, 2012, 09:23:12 pm »

This may be a dumb question, but where do you get the full exit polls? CNN used to post them, but now all they post are horrendous looking charts. Elsewhere, I've only been able to find filtered bits of information but no raw data.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #12 on: November 10, 2012, 12:55:35 am »

This may be a dumb question, but where do you get the full exit polls? CNN used to post them, but now all they post are horrendous looking charts. Elsewhere, I've only been able to find filtered bits of information but no raw data.

Fox News has a good exit poll table.
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🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸
shua
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« Reply #13 on: November 10, 2012, 01:19:05 am »

Arizona is surprising given the home state advantage in 2008. Unless McCain overperformed with minorities.

Can ND, KY, and WY be projected (over 85% white)?

McCain did about as well among Hispanics in Arizona in 2008 (56-41) as Bush did 4 years earlier (probably the only state where it was even close), or to put it another way, a little better than Obama did among whites. Given the numbers in Apache and Navajo Counties, he probably did a little better among Native Americans there than other recent Republican candidates. 

The one thing I really don't get is if in Alabama whites swung toward Obama, and the Black Belt swung toward Obama, how is it Obama got one-third of a percent less in the state than 4 years ago?
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Biden/Abrams Voter
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« Reply #14 on: November 10, 2012, 04:13:34 am »


I did this before the election as a way of trying to pin down the variables, since we didn't have exit polling. I believe once the results are certified, they release the demographic data. With that, it's fairly simple to figure it out.

Based on that, it looks like white support for Obama in Georgia was approximately 21 percent (-2 from 2008).
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Ty440
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« Reply #15 on: November 10, 2012, 11:24:42 am »

Tender it would be cool if sometime you could do both a white men and white women swing map.

Looking at some of the state exit polls Obama collapsed with white men, and basically did the same with white women from 2008.

Example: OHIO

White Men       2008  Obama 45%            McCain 53%
                        2012  Obama 36% (-9)     Romney 63%  (+10)

White Women  2008 Obama  47%            McCain  52%
                        2012 Obama  46% (-1)     Romney 53%  (+1)

Approximately  10% of white men swung from Obama to Romney in Ohio , while only 1% of white women did the same.
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Beet
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« Reply #16 on: November 10, 2012, 12:05:28 pm »

This may be a dumb question, but where do you get the full exit polls? CNN used to post them, but now all they post are horrendous looking charts. Elsewhere, I've only been able to find filtered bits of information but no raw data.

Fox News has a good exit poll table.

Thanks.
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True Federalist
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« Reply #17 on: November 10, 2012, 12:19:44 pm »

Looking at some of the state exit polls Obama collapsed with white men, and basically did the same with white women from 2008.

White men were hit harder by the Great Recession than white women were.  To the extent that 2012 was an economic referendum, it's not surprising that those hit harder would be more likely to turn against the incumbent.
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