New Jersey

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

7th most Democratic state after HI, VT, NY, RI, MA, and CA.  Romney was perfect for this state but I'm going to say that Sandy has a big effect. 

Romney got wrecked in S. Jersey... which I told you would happen. 

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Well NJ has jumped CT for 8th best Obama state.

1. Hawaii
2. Vermont
3. Rhode Island
4. New York
5. Maryland
6. California
7. Delaware
8. New Jersey
9. Connecticut

Would've loved to beat Delaware, but I never would've thought NJ would be so strong for Barack against Mitt Romney.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Errm, where's Massachusetts?

Whoops. Dur.

1. Hawaii
2. Vermont
3. Rhode Island
4. New York
5. Maryland
6. Massachusetts
7. California
8. Delaware
9. New Jersey
10. Connecticut

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

I live in NJ and I think Romney's rhetoric on immigration(i.e. "self deport") killed him with Asians in Middlesex County and maybe Bergen County by the George Washington Bridge area. Talking abut sending the issue of abortion rights in a state like NJ as a non-starter also. Social Issue did Romney in in this state.

New Jersey exit polls showed 2/3 of the voters considered the economy the top issue for them.  There might have been a small number of people who took immigration into account, but there isn't really anybody in Jersey who is worried about getting deported.  I could see women being turned off by the GOP's abortion rhetoric, but then you would see a more uniform swing.  Social issues were not at the forefront in a state like NJ that votes on the economy nearly every time. 

No, this was a combination of a continued liberal trend in N. Jersey and Sandy effects on the shore.  Cape May and Ocean swung to Obama against MITT ROMNEY of all people, and Hudson, Passaic, and Bergen swung fairly hard (by Jersey standards) to Obama. 

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

On a further note, the results in NJ are still unofficial, so they might still be counting some of those provisional and email votes authorized by the state in the wake of Sandy.  It not going to happen, but I would get the biggest political boner if Romney dropped into the 30s (he's at 40.61%).  UGH!  We were so close. 

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

The long term prospects of the GOP in New Jersey aren't great, but Obama's margins here were almost entirely attributable to Sandy.

Obama was going to win NJ by 11-12 pts anyway.  He won by 18.  Romney would have gotten about 44%, instead he got 40%.  That would suggest that for every 11 Romney voters, 1 had their mind changed by the Sandy response and the praise given to him by their governor (who is extremely popular amongst NJ Republicans).  Honestly, knowing the state, that sounds about right.  Turnout took a 200,000 vote hit as well, let's not forget that. 

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

A lot of the Obama swings are due to Sandy, no doubt. But it could be a result of NJ being younger than average and ethnically diverse. 

Now my question for someone who has never been to NJ, why is NW NJ very Republican?

White, semi-rural, and the some of the highest incomes per capita of among U.S. counties. 

Hunterdon - 4th, 94% white
Morris - 14th, 87% white
Sussex - 24th, 96% white
Warren - 100th, 95% white