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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  U.S. Presidential Election Results
  2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results (Moderators: Torie, ON Progressive)
  New Jersey
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Author Topic: New Jersey  (Read 4344 times)
Clamdick McClaw
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« on: November 08, 2012, 12:18:19 pm »

7th most Democratic state after HI, VT, NY, RI, MA, and CA.  Romney was perfect for this state but I'm going to say that Sandy has a big effect. 

Romney got wrecked in S. Jersey... which I told you would happen. 
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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #1 on: November 08, 2012, 12:42:29 pm »

I'm not even going to use New Jersey's 2012 results to help call races in 2014 or 2016. Too many people are out of their homes, too many people don't have power, and too many people are directly affected in a major way and are totally dependent on the government for help right now.

Have to say on the surface, though, it was a great night to be a Democrat in New Jersey.
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Benj
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« Reply #2 on: November 08, 2012, 01:53:07 pm »
« Edited: November 08, 2012, 02:10:06 pm by Benj »

South Jersey was not the story. The swings to Obama in South Jersey were small in Camden, Burlington, Atlantic and Ocean Counties, and Gloucester, Salem and Cape May Counties swung to Romney.

The big pro-Obama swings in New Jersey were... not where I expected them. The story of New Jersey was in urban North Jersey. Hudson County swung wildly towards Obama, by almost 5 points, and was actually more Democratic than Essex County for the first time... well, in a very long time. (Obama was 0.1% higher in Essex than in Hudson, but Romney was 0.2% higher in Essex than in Hudson.) Essex, Passaic, Union and Middlesex Counties also swung significantly towards Obama (~1.5 to 3 points), with smaller pro-Obama swings in Mercer and Bergen Counties.

As one might have predicted before the election, Romney's biggest gain was in very wealthy Hunterdon County, and he also made gains in wealthy Morris and Somerset Counties.

These data points may still change a little, though. It's not clear whether the vote-by-email votes have been counted yet, and there are probably a lot of provisional ballots from people voting at the wrong polling station as well.
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Clamdick McClaw
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« Reply #3 on: December 02, 2012, 03:40:20 pm »

Well NJ has jumped CT for 8th best Obama state.

1. Hawaii
2. Vermont
3. Rhode Island
4. New York
5. Maryland
6. California
7. Delaware
8. New Jersey
9. Connecticut

Would've loved to beat Delaware, but I never would've thought NJ would be so strong for Barack against Mitt Romney.
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pa2011
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« Reply #4 on: December 02, 2012, 04:19:38 pm »

Well NJ has jumped CT for 8th best Obama state.

1. Hawaii
2. Vermont
3. Rhode Island
4. New York
5. Maryland
6. California
7. Delaware
8. New Jersey
9. Connecticut

Would've loved to beat Delaware, but I never would've thought NJ would be so strong for Barack against Mitt Romney.


DC should be listed as number one.
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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #5 on: December 02, 2012, 04:25:12 pm »

Well NJ has jumped CT for 8th best Obama state.

1. Hawaii
2. Vermont
3. Rhode Island
4. New York
5. Maryland
6. California
7. Delaware
8. New Jersey
9. Connecticut

Would've loved to beat Delaware, but I never would've thought NJ would be so strong for Barack against Mitt Romney.


DC should be listed as number one.

Still not a state.  It still outvotes Wyoming, but still not a state.
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Seattle
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« Reply #6 on: December 02, 2012, 07:10:49 pm »

Errm, where's Massachusetts?
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Clamdick McClaw
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« Reply #7 on: December 02, 2012, 07:57:50 pm »


Whoops. Dur.

1. Hawaii
2. Vermont
3. Rhode Island
4. New York
5. Maryland
6. Massachusetts
7. California
8. Delaware
9. New Jersey
10. Connecticut
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hopper
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« Reply #8 on: December 02, 2012, 08:33:36 pm »

I live in NJ and I think Romney's rhetoric on immigration(i.e. "self deport") killed him with Asians in Middlesex County and maybe Bergen County by the George Washington Bridge area. Talking abut sending the issue of abortion rights in a state like NJ as a non-starter also. Social Issue did Romney in in this state.
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Clamdick McClaw
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« Reply #9 on: December 03, 2012, 02:29:03 pm »

I live in NJ and I think Romney's rhetoric on immigration(i.e. "self deport") killed him with Asians in Middlesex County and maybe Bergen County by the George Washington Bridge area. Talking abut sending the issue of abortion rights in a state like NJ as a non-starter also. Social Issue did Romney in in this state.

New Jersey exit polls showed 2/3 of the voters considered the economy the top issue for them.  There might have been a small number of people who took immigration into account, but there isn't really anybody in Jersey who is worried about getting deported.  I could see women being turned off by the GOP's abortion rhetoric, but then you would see a more uniform swing.  Social issues were not at the forefront in a state like NJ that votes on the economy nearly every time. 

No, this was a combination of a continued liberal trend in N. Jersey and Sandy effects on the shore.  Cape May and Ocean swung to Obama against MITT ROMNEY of all people, and Hudson, Passaic, and Bergen swung fairly hard (by Jersey standards) to Obama. 
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Clamdick McClaw
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« Reply #10 on: December 03, 2012, 02:31:27 pm »

On a further note, the results in NJ are still unofficial, so they might still be counting some of those provisional and email votes authorized by the state in the wake of Sandy.  It not going to happen, but I would get the biggest political boner if Romney dropped into the 30s (he's at 40.61%).  UGH!  We were so close. 
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Devils30
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« Reply #11 on: December 10, 2012, 12:55:05 am »

I'm not sure some of the shore counties had election results as affected by Sandy as some think. Monmouth, Ocean and Atlantic had a massive swing after 9/11 to the GOP and were somewhat due for a course correction. Somerset stayed basically the same (Obama lost 0.5%) and went more D than the national average for the first time I can ever recall.
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Snowstalker's Last Stand
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« Reply #12 on: December 12, 2012, 04:32:20 pm »

Salem was an exact tie, evidently.
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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #13 on: December 12, 2012, 04:45:25 pm »

The long term prospects of the GOP in New Jersey aren't great, but Obama's margins here were almost entirely attributable to Sandy.
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jman123
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« Reply #14 on: December 12, 2012, 05:16:01 pm »

The long term prospects of the GOP in New Jersey aren't great, but Obama's margins here were almost entirely attributable to Sandy.

What makes you say that?
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Clamdick McClaw
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« Reply #15 on: December 12, 2012, 06:29:10 pm »

The long term prospects of the GOP in New Jersey aren't great, but Obama's margins here were almost entirely attributable to Sandy.

Obama was going to win NJ by 11-12 pts anyway.  He won by 18.  Romney would have gotten about 44%, instead he got 40%.  That would suggest that for every 11 Romney voters, 1 had their mind changed by the Sandy response and the praise given to him by their governor (who is extremely popular amongst NJ Republicans).  Honestly, knowing the state, that sounds about right.  Turnout took a 200,000 vote hit as well, let's not forget that. 
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BaldEagle1991
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« Reply #16 on: December 12, 2012, 08:54:15 pm »

A lot of the Obama swings are due to Sandy, no doubt. But it could be a result of NJ being younger than average and ethnically diverse. 

Now my question for someone who has never been to NJ, why is NW NJ very Republican?
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Clamdick McClaw
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« Reply #17 on: December 12, 2012, 11:18:42 pm »

A lot of the Obama swings are due to Sandy, no doubt. But it could be a result of NJ being younger than average and ethnically diverse. 

Now my question for someone who has never been to NJ, why is NW NJ very Republican?

White, semi-rural, and the some of the highest incomes per capita of among U.S. counties. 

Hunterdon - 4th, 94% white
Morris - 14th, 87% white
Sussex - 24th, 96% white
Warren - 100th, 95% white
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Benj
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« Reply #18 on: December 12, 2012, 11:24:18 pm »

A lot of the Obama swings are due to Sandy, no doubt. But it could be a result of NJ being younger than average and ethnically diverse. 

Now my question for someone who has never been to NJ, why is NW NJ very Republican?

This is actually an important point. The bigger swings to Obama, as I pointed out elsewhere, were not in areas heavily affected by Hurricane Sandy but rather than in minority-heavy cities and suburbs of North Jersey: Hudson, Passaic, Union and Middlesex Counties.* That suggests that at least a significant part of the swing was Obama's general, nationwide improvement among Hispanics and Asians rather than the result of Sandy, though Sandy certainly played a role as well.

*Essex County is missing from that last, but Essex is more black and less Hispanic and Asian than the those four, which may have played a role in the magnitude of the swings. It did still swing to Obama, just less.
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hopper
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« Reply #19 on: December 27, 2012, 07:23:38 pm »

The long term prospects of the GOP in New Jersey aren't great, but Obama's margins here were almost entirely attributable to Sandy.
Yeah the Black, Asian and especially the Hispanic Population are growing while the white population stays flat so yeah demography changes in the state are not beneficial to the GOP at all plus the GOP's Hard Right Turn in the past 2 years doesn't play well here either. The House and Governor's Races are different though as opposed to the US Senate and Presidential Races in NJ.
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hopper
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« Reply #20 on: December 27, 2012, 07:35:41 pm »

The long term prospects of the GOP in New Jersey aren't great, but Obama's margins here were almost entirely attributable to Sandy.

Obama was going to win NJ by 11-12 pts anyway.  He won by 18.  Romney would have gotten about 44%, instead he got 40%.  That would suggest that for every 11 Romney voters, 1 had their mind changed by the Sandy response and the praise given to him by their governor (who is extremely popular amongst NJ Republicans).  Honestly, knowing the state, that sounds about right.  Turnout took a 200,000 vote hit as well, let's not forget that. 
So NJ would have been a D+4 or D+5 PVI this year if not for Sandy as opposed to the D+7 that it was this year. Nate Silver had the state 55-45 in favor of Obama pre-election.
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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #21 on: December 27, 2012, 08:26:56 pm »

When I say Obama's margins were attributable to Sandy, I meant that the increase in Obama's margins were attributable to Sandy. Obviously, Romney wasn't going to win the state.
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Vosem
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« Reply #22 on: December 28, 2012, 01:51:38 pm »

The long term prospects of the GOP in New Jersey aren't great, but Obama's margins here were almost entirely attributable to Sandy.

I have to say, in the short term they seem OK. The 2010 redistricting locked in a 6-6 split bar a massive landslide for either party/scandal, which is pretty good for the GOP in such a D state; Christie seems set to be reelected in 2013 and if he is nominated for President in 2016 would definitely be competitive in the state.

The state's politics actually remind me of Illinois' quite a bit.
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