325.000 votes still to be counted in OH

[Tender Branson]

All precincts are in but there are

120.000 Outstanding Absentees
205.000 Outstanding Provisionals

http://www2.sos.state.oh.us/pls/enrpublic/f?p=212:52:1169205685152101::NO:::

Obama currently leads by 107.000, so Romney would need to win them by about a 70-30 margin.

Of course, not all of them will be accepted and ruled valid, so Romney's chances are even lower.

[Fuzzybigfoot]

And last night Chuck Todd was talking about how most of the outstanding Ohio ballots were from the Cleveland area, so...

[Tender Branson]

What's the best case ?

Obama increasing his margin to 3 statewide ?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Great! Come on, I really want Obama to increase his Ohio numbers! They've been pretty disappointing so far, and so have been Brown's.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Provisionals tend to favor Democrats anyways.

[Tender Branson]

For example, of the remaining votes to be counted, 19% are from Cuyahoga when the actual votes cast from Cuyahoga made up only 11% of the OH total.

In Franklin it's 10% vs. 15% for the remaining absentees.

There seem to be much more uncounted ballots from strong Democratic areas alltogether.

So, if we assume that Obama wins the 325.000 uncounted ballots by 58-40-2, then his overall winning margin increases to 50.6-47.7 in the state.

Of course not all of those ballots will be accepted and Obama could get a higher or lower percentage than 58%.

But the chances that Obama comes out of Ohio with a 3% margin are good ...

[Tender Branson]

The best-case-scenario that I can come up with for Obama shows:

51.0% Obama
47.3% Romney

This of course would mean that ALL 325.000 uncounted ballots are included in the final total and Obama wins them by 65-33-2.

That would probably mean that OHIO is more Democratic than the US as a whole, which is currently 50.6-47.9 Obama ...

[wan]

[quote author=Tender Branson link=topic=164279.msg3513748#msg3513748 date=


Awesome

[politicallefty]

Of course, not all of the provisional ballots will be counted. According to what I found, there were about 200,000 provisional ballots cast in 2008 with about 40,000 of those being rejected. I'm sure Obama will get a sizable majority of those though.

[BlueSwan]

Oh dear, this slow vote counting is a travesty. Imagine if Ohio had been closer and it was the decisive state. Imagine if Florida was the decisive state. Really, both parties ought to have some interest in fixing the system.

[Antonio the Sixth]

PLEASE, I want Obama to win Ohio by over 3%!!!!

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

So would Obama flip any of the Romney >40% counties (two of which voted for McCain)?

[Skill and Chance]

The best-case-scenario that I can come up with for Obama shows:

51.0% Obama
47.3% Romney

This of course would mean that ALL 325.000 uncounted ballots are included in the final total and Obama wins them by 65-33-2.

That would probably mean that OHIO is more Democratic than the US as a whole, which is currently 50.6-47.9 Obama ...

That's a bit unlikely, don't you think?  Even so, having 303 electoral votes left of the nation would be pretty incredible after the 2000 debacle.